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  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......

  • Dow hits 10,000 and the dollar is down...

    In This Issue..

    * Dow hits 10,000 and the dollar is down...
    * Return of the carry trade?...
    * Global Power Shift Index...
    * Goldman predicts a further fall for the dollar...

    Good day... It is a Thunderin Thursday here as the rain continues for another day. We have had a very wet two weeks here in the midwest, but the cold rain is finally supposed to stop later today. The currencies continued to their thunderin stampede over the US$ yesterday with several reaching fresh highs. The Dow Jones average moved above 10,000 again, so everything must be alright in the world economy now, right?? This morning the dollar bounced back up, but it looks like profit taking and not a more permanent trend. Lots to talk about today, so I'll get right to it....

  • The dollar drifts lower in thin trading..

    In This Issue..

    * US$ drifts lower in light trading...                    
    * Euro/Yen benefit from reserve diversification...                      
    * Pound sterling continues to drop...                                    
    * New Zealand retail sales pick up.....
                                                                                 
    Good day... and happy Tuesday morning to everyone.  As Chuck told everyone yesterday, he is heading down south to a corporate meeting, so you will be stuck with me for the remainder of the week.  Yesterday was an official 'bank holiday' but apparently most of the WorldMarkets customers were unaware, as our phones were surprisingly busy.  Trading in the currency markets was substantially lighter than usual, and with no data releases in the US, the dollar drifted sideways throughout the day.  The European currencies were slightly higher vs. the US$, the Asian currencies were lower vs. the US$, and the commodity based currencies were mixed.

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  • A New Carry Trade Currency?

    In This Issue..

    * A bias to buy dollars remains...
    * The Fed was warned as far back as 1999!
    * Fujii gets 'the memo'!
    * A ton o' data all around the globe this week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! My weekend turned out to be quite grand, as all the things I said that would make it special came to pass! My Cardinals clinched their division. My beloved Missouri Tigers won on Friday night, and my little buddy's 8th grade Flyers won their game against their arch rival... WOW!

    Well... Here we go with the last 3 days of September... A month that saw Gold return to $1,000, and the non-dollar currencies all return to levels they held a year ago, having withstood the onslaught of flight to safety trades that benefitted the dollar after the Lehman Bros collapse....

  • G-20 Heats Up...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar's rally is cut short...
    * Major problems for loans still exist...
    * Yen rallies on exporter repatriation...
    * Kiwi gets whacked!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's still raining here in St. Louis this morning, but I won't that get me down, as it is a Friday! G-20 has gotten a bit ugly, folks... Seems everyone just can't seem to get along! Imagine that! 20 different countries, and now they want to be able to watch another country's finances and comment on them! Oh, I can see that working out real well! NOT!

    So... Yesterday, we had the dollar gaining back the ground that it had lost the previous day, but at the end of the day, we're looking very much like the currencies hadn't moved from morning to morning... And overnight, didn't bring about much movement... So... When you get to the currency round-up below, you'll see the dollar's gains were small, and short-lived....

  • Protectionism Wars, Here We Come!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies back off gains...
    * Administration slaps tariff on China...
    * And Yen rallies...
    * Quotes from Davos...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your weekend was grand... I was supposed to be traveling back from Williamsburg today, so this is a bonus day for you all! HA! On Friday morning, I told the early arrivers that the currencies were strong, Gold was strong, it was all good, and we needed to close up shop and go home, because it wasn't going to get an better than that, and that the rest of the day had nothing but disappointment risk! Boy did I nail that one on the head! Let's get to the goings on....

  • Patriot Day...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies have strong rally!
    * Trade Deficit jumps 16.3% in July!
    * HR 1207 Gets a hearing!
    * Gold gets back to $1,000!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Today is Patriot Day in the U.S. and a day that brings back memories of cowardly attacks on our country 8 years ago. I remember the shock and horror on everyone's faces, and that image will remain with me to the grave. I also remember trying to write the Pfennig the 'day after'... It just didn't seem that important of a thing to do, but a reader told me that to keep things as 'normal' as possible was the best thing I could do... So... I wrote...

    OK... The currencies, and this time I mean the majority of them not just euro and yen, added to their gains this week VS the dollar yesterday... The Big Dog, euro, is once again knocking at the door to 1.46... Who's that knocking at the door, Who's that ringing the bell? Do me a favor, open the door, and let 'em in......

  • Cautiously Positive?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro & yen add to gains...
    * RBNZ disappoints...
    * Foreclosures continue to stack up!
    * BOE & BOC meet today...

    Good day... And a Thrillin' Thursday to you! Ahhh! A change! Just thought that with the thrilling victories my beloved Cardinals have been accumulating, that Thrillin' would be a nice change to our Thursday lineup!

    Front and Center this morning... The currencies added to their gains this week yesterday, albeit small gains, but gains nonetheless. The Fed's Beige Book was 'cautiously positive'... And... Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met, and left rates unchanged as suspected... This and more as we begin our Thrillin' Thursday!...

  • U.S. Manufacturing Is Recovering...

    In This Issue..

    * A strong currency move Monday...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * And moves bias to neutral...
    * Central Bank warnings have no teeth!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! First day back yesterday was a killer for yours truly... Went home, and went to sleep... But, I'm back today, and feeling good. I did something to my left knee on vacation that left me hobbling, and leaning on my cane more than I usually do. But today, it seems a bit better, so I've got that going for me!

    Yesterday, I left you with the euro popping back and forth over the 1.43 level... But in a wink of an eye, the 1.43 level was gone, and the euro was trading with a 1.44 level, and remained there the rest of the day, reaching 1.4420 for the high... As I turn on the screens this morning, I see that the single unit has gone to popping back and forth over the 1.44 level... You don't think it will get another sling-shot higher today do you?...

  • Dollar continues it’s slide...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar continues to slide...
    * US GDP contracts but not as fast...
    * Nordic currencies outperform...
    * Japanese yen continues to fall...

    Good day... The last day of July is upon us. Time just seems to keep moving faster as it seems summer just got started. The fall of the dollar also accelerated yesterday as investors moved back out of the 'safe haven' of US$ and continued to shop for more yield. The greenback tried to stage a bit of a rally in early European trading, but has fallen back off again as I sit down to write the Pfennig.

    I got a call from a Reuters reporter yesterday mid morning to ask why the dollar was rallying at the same time stocks were moving higher. I quickly paged through my Bloomberg looking for some sign why both were heading higher. The trading pattern which has been established over the last few months has these two asset classes moving in opposite directions; good news for the US economy sends stocks higher and the dollar lower as investors retreat from defensive 'safe haven' positions in the US$. The opposite occurs whenever there is data which shows the global economic recovery is faltering, stocks move lower and the dollar rallies with safe haven buying....

  • Back To Risk Aversion Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Earnings reports begin this week...
    * Dollar, yen, francs get bought...
    * Medvedev shows off new coin!
    * A busy week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Home Run Derby Monday to boot! I have no Idea what's going on this morning, as I just woke up, and it's very late in the morning! I was very careful to set my alarm last night, and I've never been one of those people that hit the snooze button when it goes off, but here I am, waking up late... UGH!

    So... I'm writing from home, and then I'll shoot in to work... We're short handed this week, so, I'm sure everyone will be arriving to the office, not see my car, and be a little ticked... So, I've got a surprise for them, something they've never seen... Me come in late!...

  • A Lost Decade?

    In This Issue..

    * An Up and Down day for currencies...
    * Jobs Jamboree moves to Thursday today...
    * China to buy more Gold!
    * Sweden cuts rates!

    Good day... And a Thankful Thursday to you! I'm reminded that we all need to be thankful for the patriots that led this country to victory and thus our freedom. The freedom for me to write a letter like this, each day, that allows me to say what I want to say (well, with the governor of the legal beagles of course!). And since this weekend we will celebrate our Independence, I thought this to be a good time to have a Thankful Thursday!

    Patriots... You know, the ending story for those 56 Patriots that signed the Declaration of Independence is not a happy story... So, when we learn of their collective fates, we realize that freedom does not come free......

  • German Investor Confidence Is On The Rise...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies stop the dollar's run...
    * BRIC meeting could get ugly for the dollar...
    * RBA meeting notes good for Aussie dollars...
    * Depressing data / forecasts for housing...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thundering storms moved through here this morning, as I was preparing to leave home and drive to the office. As slow as I am with getting around these days, I got pretty wet from my car to the office building. But, I didn't melt, as most would have thought! HA! And, I'll dry out soon enough... Well before anyone else comes in!

    OK... Well... When I left you yesterday, the dollar was on a rampage, from the comments by the Russian Finance Minister, Kudrin... Was it an overreaction, I asked? A resounding YES was my answer... I think the proof is in the pudding on that this morning, as the dollar buying has hit a roadblock, and reversed overnight, with the euro gaining back about 1%......

  • Fundamentals Return...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies & Gold move together!
    * Fed downgrades economic growth...
    * More on China...
    * Yen breaks the trading pattern...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' here, as the warm winds of spring have finally sprung, the Cardinals have won two in a row from the rival Cubs, and I'm headed to Busch Stadium tonight! Oh! And fundamentals, as far as currencies and metals are concerned, seemed to be in place yesterday...

    That's right... The rout on the dollar was on (recall yesterday, Wayne and Garth playing street hockey... Game On!) and this time... Not only did the currencies rally VS the dollar, Gold and Silver took part in the proceedings too! It's been a long time since we've seen this happen... For the most part, whenever the currencies (minus yen) rallied, Gold would back off, and vice versa... Not yesterday! For the first time in a long time, the negativity toward the dollar was front and center BIG TIME!...

  • May Day empties the trade desks...

    In This Issue..

    * May Day empties trade desks...
    * Chrysler declares bankruptcy...
    * SEC to investigate Paulson and Bernanke??
    * China continues to grow...

    Good day...and Happy May Day to everyone. Most associate May Day with the Soviet Union, where the communists turned it into a 'celebration of the worker'. But its origins are actually in central Europe where it developed from a combination of several pagan holidays celebrating the end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. It never really took flight in the US, but is still a popular holiday in most other parts of the globe. With the way our government has been using tax payer funds to take over struggling companies, May Day could become a larger holiday here in the US also! Most of the trade desks throughout Europe are closed today, and many of the traders left early yesterday, so the currency and metals markets were pretty quiet....
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