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  • FOMC Day ...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Off Day...

    * Will FOMC bring about new QE?

    * China prints 18-month high Trade Surplus!

    * Sorting out the Asian currencies...

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    FOMC Day...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I had another visit to the dentist last night... My mouth is still pretty sore this morning, so it's a good thing I'm not talking to you, but writing instead! HA!

    Well, that slippage that I was seeing yesterday morning turned into a dollar rally, and has continued throughout the night with the euro losing 1 1/4-cents... It's about the same with Aussie dollars (A$), and the Norwegian krone, which I highlighted yesterday, and gave it the old "Pfennig kiss of death"!

    ...
  • A "Stock Tip From The Top Guy!"

    * Australia's economy contracts.... * Bank of Canada cuts rates to .50% * Meeting margin calls... * TALF... ** A 'Stock Tip From The Top Guy!' Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beautiful bride is getting ready to leave this morning. I'm not used to 'talking' to someone when I get up at my usual early hour! She'll be gone in a few, as I write, and then it will be my little buddy, Alex, and your Pfennig writer on their own for 5 days! YAHOO! Well... After a day of waxing eloquently about the how well the Aussie economy was doing compared to the rest of the world, they go and post a contraction in their economic growth! UGH! That's the way to show me up! The Aussie economy shrank in the 4th QTR by .5% VS the forecast of .2% growth... The news scared the markets into believing the Asian problem will be worse off than previously thought. Oh Come On! Australia is STILL doing better than most countries, especially those that I listed in yesterday's Pfennig!...
  • A Jobs Disaster!

    * Retail Jobs are cut in December! * Dollar rallies on renewed Trading Theme... * Looking for the Obama bounce... * High yielders get sold... ** A Jobs Disaster! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A grand weekend for yours truly with time spent resting, watching football, Alex play basketball, dinner with friends, and finally a wonderful dinner with my kids as we celebrated my oldest son, Andrew's, birthday. Whew! I'm at work about an hour earlier than usual this morning, as I couldn't sleep, and just decided to get up and come in... UGH! OK... Well, the big news this morning, is that the Jobs Jamboree was just awful, but "not as bad as some forecast" and therefore the dollar rallied. OK, I'm shaking my head in disgust too, but that's what the headlines reported later in the day on Friday, as the reason for the dollar rally. But let's get to the meat of the Jobs report... First of all, jobs lost in December were -525K, which was bang on the forecasts. But here's the two things I found to be very scary in the report... First of all, November's awful print of -533K was revised downward to -584K (recall, I questioned a month ago if it would reach -600K on the revision)... And here's the really scary number... -67K Retail jobs were cut in December... That's right, December! The month when retailers are supposed to be on fire!...
  • The NBER Finally Says So!

    * RBA cuts 100 BPS... * It IS a recession! * Paulson to ruffle feathers? * Yen to rally hard? ** The NBER Finally Says So! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Quoting one of my all time fave Christmas songs, Baby, it's Cold Out There! Winter has arrived, and I had to drag out the big heavy winter coat this morning. So... The seasons pass us, which is a good thing, because without winter, we couldn't have spring, and spring training! OK... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pulled the rug right out from under the "high yield status" of their economy, with another HUGE rate cut overnight... This time, the RBA cut 100 BPS, to an internal cash rate of 4.25%. This brings the total since September to 300 BPS! WOW! Talk about effectively unwinding seven years of tightening! The statement following the rate announcement leads me to believe that the RBA is probably finished cutting rates for now... It will be a wait-n-see what happens globally, before the RBA entertains any talk of further rate cuts... At least that's my opinion!...
  • Nothing comes out of the G20 meeting...

    * G20 largely a non-event... * Pound moves up... * Brazil falls on sell off of emerging markets... * Japan enters recession... ** Nothing comes out of the G20 meeting... Good day...and welcome back to another work week. I driving into work this morning and started thinking about the growing number of people who no longer have jobs to report to. And the problems are no longer just concentrated on the manufacturing sector. I was shocked at the long list of retail stores which are planning to shut down after the holiday season. The situation in the US economy continues to deteriorate, and unfortunately things are going to get much worse here in the US before they turn around. On that cheery note, I'll get started....
  • Jobs Fall 80,000!

    * Labor picture looks awful... * Does this look like a recession now? * Aussie Trade Deficit widens... * China about to trade with a 6!...
  • Fed Force Feeds Funds Into the System...

    * Fed cuts discount rate...* Swiss franc above parity... * Japanese yen continues to climb... * Gold blows through $1,000......
  • Finally... A Breather!

    * Japanese yen looking good! * High Yielders knocked off the roost! * More recession looking data in the U.S.... * What Me Worry?...