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  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday 10/02/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar remains well bid...
    * G-7 to hand currencies off to G-20?
    * Car Sales collapse...
    * Auditing the Lehman cash movements...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday, I welcomed you to October. I had been prepared to tell you about a famous radio station here in St. Louis, that has long called October... Rocktober... But forgot, as usual! But anyway... It's the first Fantastico Friday of Rocktober!

    Today is a Jobs Jamboree Friday too! And... I'm not getting a good feeling about today's labor report at the Jobs Jamboree. The forecast is for jobs losses to fall from -216,000 to -175,000, but the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.8% from 9.7%... I got the feeling, baby, baby, I got the feeling... Oops, a little James Brown on Fantastico Friday never hurts! But what I was saying was I'm getting the feeling that there are risks to this forecast... And that the job losses could come in higher, which would really be a BAD thing for the recovery flag wavers and risk takers, I'm sorry to say...

    ...

  • The Dollar Gets Ambushed!

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies soar!
    * Weber gives the green light...
    * Is the Fed buying more Treasuries?
    * China considering IMF's Gold!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday that needs no 'turn-around', as the currency actions VS the dollar overnight are amazing! The dollar got ambushed overnight, as the euro shot right straight through the 1.47 handle, and has just traded 1.48! Hmmm... Didn't I say yesterday that the I didn't think the dollar strength we were seeing was any change in the recent trend? ... I love it when a plan comes together!...

  • German Business Confidence Continues to Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Tuesday
    * But see profit taking later in the day...
    * Looking for yield?
    * China expected to get back to 10% growth!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! When I signed off yesterday morning, I told you that I was watching a mini-rally in the currencies. Well, that mini-rally turned into a real rally as the morning went along. Especially, after the risk assets got a boost from the Consumer Confidence revival. Yes, Brother Love's traveling salvation show revival, a.k.a. Consumer Confidence was much stronger than forecast, and the risk assets took off!

    By mid-afternoon, the euro was pushing 1.4350, and all the 'little dogs' were following along with their own version of a rally VS the dollar. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, and profit taking set in... Oh brother! Can't these guys wait until there is really a BIG move before they take profits? Oh well, I know, you're saying, 'But Chuck, don't you always say that it's not a profit until you take it?' Yes, that's correct... But the rest of us just want to have a diversifying asset in our investment portfolio, and are not interested in 1/2 euro moves to take a 'profit'!

    ...

  • $75 Billion In New Treasuries This week...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies adrift all day yesterday...
    * Data prints begin today with Productivity...
    * Stop to think!
    * Chinese data is impressive...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, no data yesterday left the markets drifting about the open waters. Stocks rebounded, which gave the risk assets a bias to be bought, but for the most part, the day was much like being a drift in the ocean, with no direction or cares!

    That will all change beginning today with the Nonfarm Productivity report for the 2nd QTR... Long time readers know my dislike for this data, as I believe it simply shows that one person works longer hours! The Fed Heads used to be all over this data like a cheap suit, and probably still trip over themselves to see the data when it prints... But to me, it's not what Big Al Greenspan made it out to be......

  • Risk Returns... Slowly...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound...
    * G-8 has no fireworks...
    * Aussie / China and coal...
    * Entitlements...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I'm late, I'm late! I don't believe I ever heard the alarm go off this morning! I overslept by more than an hour, and will still be here more than an hour before any sign of someone else! But! That puts me behind by more than an hour today... I've got to play catch-up! So, let's get this Tub Thumpin' Thursday going!

    Well... Let's see... G-8 never had the opportunity to shoot fireworks because China's leader had to return home to deal with the street riots going on in his country. So... The call for a replacement for the dollar as the reserve currency will have to wait for another day! And, with that news, the dollar got to remain in the sunlight, and bask in the glory of being the reserve currency and so-called 'safe haven' another day......

  • The U.S. Treasury Moves The Goal Posts...

    In This Issue..

    * A 4-day rally gets stopped at the border...
    * Home Prices fall at a -18.12% pace...
    * Alice Rivlin gives her 2-cents...
    * Kiwi bond maturities galore next month...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! As tradition with the Pfennig would have it, here's my introduction to July... There I was... On a July morning... Looking for love... With the strength of a new day dawning, and... The beautiful sun...

    Yes, for those 'old rockers' from the 70's like me... That's Uriah Heep, at their best!

    OK... So, welcome to July! The last day of June was quite the volatile one to say the least! There we were waiting for the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index to print, and show that home prices were still down by quite a bit, when it did, it did, it printed at -18.12%... But! The media was all over that like a cheap suit, clamoring that the spiral down in Home Prices had come to and end! Which, may be true... But wouldn't you want to wait to see if next month's report confirms it? And... By the way... Since when does -18.12% fall in home prices beckon a rally? Yesterday, would be that answer!...

  • Stuck In A Range...

    In This Issue..

    * A Turn Around Tuesday?
    * BRIC meeting doesn't get covered by the media?
    * Are the Bearer Bonds real or fakes?
    * QTC's get Gov. backing!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Remember last week, when I said that we had a 'Turn Around Tuesday?' I came in this morning to find a story that Chris Gaffney had printed off the Bloomie for me... The writer refers to the price action yesterday as 'Turn Around Tuesday!' OK... I for one, don't even begin to believe that I was the originator of a saying like that for the currencies... I just find it interesting, that a week after I make a big deal out Turn Around Tuesday that it is used in a story with much wider distribution than my little old Pfennig!...

  • A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Goldman says to buy euros!
    * Oil fuels Commodity Currencies!
    * RBNZ to meet tonight...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday was 'Turn Around Tuesday'! Add to that, the fact that there were a number of reasons for the euro to lead the charge for currencies VS the dollar yesterday. And... A word from one of the economists that I keep on my list of 'to read'... So, let's get to the tape from Turn Around Tuesday!

    I heard yesterday someone say 'well, we sure turned around today in the currencies'... And I thought, Shoot Rudy, why not name it Turn Around Tuesday? Then I went back to the history page on my trusty Bloomberg, and saw that on 4 of the last 5 Tuesdays, the currencies did in fact 'turn around' their performances from the day before! Not that this is something we can hand our hats on, and make trades accordingly on Monday nights / Tuesday mornings... But, it's an interesting fact nonetheless!...

  • Rising Treasury Yields...

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Spending habits come back to haunt reps...
    * Some healing in the currencies...
    * 10 Banks to repay TARP today...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I sure stirred up the hornet's nest yesterday... Some people didn't think I should express my opinion... But that's OK... Here's the skinny... I wrote yesterday about the farce that the jobs report was, and what a feeble job the media did in reporting the 'real numbers'... I then threw something in the Pfennig that I don't normally do, just to see what was more important to people... The fact that their Gov't lies to them, or the fact that they don't see eye-to-eye with me on the President...

    Given the response, I'd say that most had their eye on the ball with the jobs farce... And that's all I'm going to say from here on out......

  • A Currency Rally For The Ages!

    In This Issue..

    * Negative momentum towards the dollar grows...
    * Treasury yields continue to rise...
    * Fundamentals and Charts coincide!
    * Silver has best week in 22 years!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to make the call and say this is going to be a Fantastico Friday! The sun is supposed to come out today after a week of rain, it's Friday, it's pay-day, and... The currencies have put on a rally that's the stuff that movies are made from! And... Once again, there were signs yesterday that the break of the link to stocks was in place! Take all that, and the fact that we woke up this morning for a brand new day... And you have a Fantastico Friday!

    OK... So front and center this morning let me tell you about the currency rally that began yesterday morning... Let's look back at what I said as I was getting ready to hit the send button yesterday morning... 'So... As I get ready to head to the Big Finish, I see that the currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, are getting off the porch once again to chase the dollar.'...

  • Russian Rumors...

    In This Issue..

    * dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
    * Emerging Markets decouple...
    * A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
    * Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

    Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....

  • Maybe, Just Maybe A Break In The Link?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies consolidate...
    * Brazil posts a surplus!
    * Dr. Marc Faber speaks...
    * High yielders rule!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A very tight trading range day was in place yesterday for the currencies... In yet another sign that maybe, just maybe, because you never know, the currencies could be breaking their link to stocks... U.S. stocks jumped 196 points yesterday, and the currencies range traded... Hmmm....

    Not that this will become a 'stock jockey journal'... Stocks jumped on the news that Consumer Confidence surged this month... Talk about looking at things through rose colored glasses! Any way, Consumer Confidence surged... Better to have blips in Confidence than to be all negative all the time I guess! I also guess the stock jockeys took what was behind door number 1 (consumer confidence) and not was what behind door number 2, which was the Case-Shiller House Price Index......

  • A Rare Day, Indeed!

    In This Issue..

    * Stocks, bonds and dollars get sold!
    * The U.S. to lose our AAA credit rating?
    * A return to fundamentals day 2...
    * A Corporate Feed Good story for a Friday...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday here in St. Louis, as we bask in the sun of a 3-game sweep by my beloved Cardinals over the Cubbies! It's also the beginning of a 3-day Holiday weekend. It's Memorial Day on Monday! Time to reflect and give thanks for those that put their lives on the line for our freedom...

    OK... Front and Center this morning the Big Dog (euro) has left the porch and is chasing the dollar down the street! I got home yesterday afternoon, rested, and then checked the currencies at the NY closing before they handed the books over to Japan, and saw that the euro had leap-frogged to the 1.39 handle! WOW! What was going on?...

  • A Huge Rally Gets Stopped!

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs Jamboree results...
    * A double whack for Treasuries...
    * The loonie is stealth like...
    * Oil on the rise...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope you enjoyed your Mother's Day weekend. Friday was absolutely crazy in the markets. The currency screens lit up, the price of Oil was on the rise, and Treasury yields were rising, thus pushing the value of existing bonds downward. An absolutely crazy day, that scared the bejeebers out of the Chinese... So, let's go to the tape to see what's going on here...

    Front and center to talk about this morning, was the Jobs Jamboree... The mass media would have you believe that the recession has ended, and there are no longer any problems with the credit markets, and liquidity, not to mention the sorry state of financial institutions... Why? Because after the previous month's job losses were revised up from 663,000 to 699,000 (nobody cared about that!) the April figures came in at, according to the media, "just" 539,000... YAHOO! Let's have a party, according to what I kept seeing on the TV!...

  • US$ benefits from the swine flu...

    In This Issue..

    * Swine flu causes rush to US$...
    * The US$ wins no matter what??
    * US Treasury starts a busy week...
    * Chinese Renminbi moves back up..

    Good day... And welcome to another week. Chuck headed off to Bermuda on Saturday, so you are all stuck with me for the whole week. Both he and Frank will be giving presentations at the Sovereign Society's Total Wealth Symposium; Frank representing EverBank and Chuck representing his paid newsletter, Currency Capitalist (www.worldcurrencywatch.com). Frank and Chuck probably log more miles than anyone else in the company, and while it may sound like fun to travel to all of the exotic locals, travel is tough. And with the big news over the weekend, airplanes and airports are the last place I would want to be right now....
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