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Beware The Thin Markets...

* ADP prints a huge downside surprise! * Euros get past 1.58... * A Perfect Storm? * Gold continues its move higher! ** Beware The Thin Markets... Good day... And a Happy pseudo-Friday to one and all! It is actually Thursday of course, but it's our Friday, as tomorrow is the 4th of July holiday here in the U.S. I think a lot about the Declaration of Independence these days, as I feel there is a faction of people here in the U.S. that would like to tear up the constitution... So, as we come to the day we celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence let's stop and remember that it's WE THE PEOPLE that make a difference in this country, certainly not anything that comes out of Washington D.C.! OK, I'm down from my soapbox... This could really be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as it has the potential to really kick some rear and take names later. Here's what I'm talking about......

Published Thu, Jul 07 2008 8:08 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, Jobs, Renminbi

Fundamentals Rule!

* Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 8:58 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Inflation, Gold, European Central Bank, Japan, The Fed, Stocks, Warren Buffett

"Somewhat Receded"?

* Fed leaves rates unchanged... * A dovish tone to the Fed... * Dollar Bulls run for the hills! * Norway raises rates... ** "Somewhat Receded"? Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... If you are a non-dollar owner, you might want to quickly go to the currency round-up to check on your currency / currencies... The Fed left rates unchanged and were quite dovish in their statement, and the dollar has been sent to the woodshed... Welcome back! Front and Center this morning, we have a currency rally going on, with the euro leading the dogs off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. The single unit has pushed past the 1.57 handle this morning, and the high yielders of Aussie, kiwi, and Brazil are all dancing in the streets because their positive rate differentials are even more in the face of traders now....

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 10:39 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Gold, New Zealand, Interest Rates, The Fed, Norway, Renminbi

FOMC Meeting Day!

* What will the Fed do? * Going into the fryer? * Trichet tries to cool the jets... * India raises rates 50 BPS! ** FOMC Day! Good day... And a what should be "Wild" Wednesday to you! This is the day the Fed's "true" colors come through in my opinion. The markets were all fired up a couple of weeks ago, and the air in their balloon has been slowly let out up to now. But today, we'll see if their balloon get re-inflated or goes "pop"! You see, today is the day the Fed's FOMC meeting adjourns and a rate announcement along with a new bias will be the order of business at the end of the meeting. The Fed Heads normally eat their lunch, which was probably packed in brown bag consisting of a baloney sandwich (since that's what they normally spew is baloney!), some chips and ho-ho's... HAHAHAHAHA!...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rates, Trichet, The Fed, FOMC, India

Dollar's Mini-rally ends...

* Record iron ore price! * Ben Stein in the Pfennig! * Top 11 currency returns... * Mogambo on Gold... ** Dollar's Mini-rally ends... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The dollar's mini-rally yesterday stalled overnight, and once again the dollar bulls are having to cover euro shorts they put on. Yes, they NOW believe the Fed will not come through on it's claim to be an inflation fighter, and leave rates unchanged. That will keep the positive yield differential in the euro's favor (well, it would have anyway, but it keeps it unchanged). Remember though, who called out Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke when he said early this month that the "falling dollar had caused an unwelcome increase in inflation, and that he was "attentive" to the problem." Hogwash, said I!...

Published Tue, Jun 06 2008 9:15 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Gold, Ben Bernanke, The Fed, Icelandic Krona, Renminbi, Mogambo, Iron Ore, Ben Stein

Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue"

* The U.S. economy in a wreck! * More problems to come... * Funky accounting at the Fed... * SNB leaves rates unchanged... **Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue" - Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was alone last night, and decided to write... Oh Boy! Are you, dear reader, in trouble when I begin writing at night for the next morning! My Cardinals were losing again, so my attention turned to putting down all these thoughts that keep coming into my head... Like Michael Keaton in Night Shift (what a great movie!) I need a recorder to put all these thoughts down... Like... Feed the mayo to the tuna! OK... Front and Center this morning, the euro's rally that went on all day yesterday and into the early Asian session (all the way to 1.5580) ended this morning... Someone, somewhere decided that the U.S. will be able to squeeze by this slowdown... Unfortunately, I don't agree! I see the U.S. being involved with the multi-car accident on the highway... But as Pfennig readers you already know that... However, instead of just hearing from me all the time about this meltdown of the U.S. economy, let's hear from an organization that tracks these things......

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 9:38 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Euro, Ben Bernanke, The Fed, Economy, FOMC, Henry Paulson, Swiss National Bank

More Awful Data For The U.S!

* Housing continues to rot... * Fed Officials warn the markets... * A new "junk bond" house... * David Galland's thoughts... **More Awful Data For The U.S! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A full day in meetings yesterday had me ready for the easy chair upon arriving home... The Celtics are NBA Champions for the 17th time, congrats to them and their fans, of which I was one as a kid, and through the Larry Bird era... Kind of lost track of the NBA over the years... Another full day of meetings on the docket for yours truly, can't wait! NOT! OK... The currencies really had a boring day yesterday... The bias was to sell dollars, but not by much. The euro gained a little, but has given it all back this morning. The data in the U.S. yesterday was weak if not awful, but the markets are still hanging by a moment on the Fed's rhetoric... Shoot Rudy, even the Financial Times is calling out the Fed and those that are getting carried away with thoughts of 75 BPS in rate hikes this year... The title of the FT article was... "Rate rise expectation overplayed, believe Fed officials"...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:15 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Home Sales, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, Junk Bonds, David Galland

Calling Out The Fed...

* TIC's look funny... * Germany's ZEW is weaker... * A note from the Washington Post! * Tons of data today... **Calling Out The Fed... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Someone from the Washington Post is a Pfennig Reader (I think!), as there was a great article in the paper calling out the Fed on their "rate hike" rhetoric... I'll give you snippets of that, and a snippet from my friend, the Mogambo Guru, along with the usual currency talk, on this Terrific Tuesday... Ready, set, let's go! Front and Center this morning is the dollar getting sold all day yesterday, as the euro recovered all the way to 1.5515 in the overnight markets. Unfortunately, the single unit was stopped in its rally tracks by an awful printing of German Investor Confidence, as measured by the think tank ZEW... German Investor Confidence dropped to the lowest level in 15 years this month, as rising inflation is eating away at the economy. I don't expect this report to put too much a dent in the single unit's performance today, but for now it has slipped back below 1.55......

Published Tue, Jun 06 2008 9:10 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Inflation, Euro, Ben Bernanke, The Fed, Germany, TIC Flow

Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric...

* More dollar strength... * Retail Sales surprise... * SARB raises rates! * Gold on the slippery slope... **Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It will be a Fantastico Friday (Hopefully) for the boys and girls in the St. Louis office, as we head to Busch Stadium tonight for a Cardinals baseball game... We even have a special guest that will be with us, so party on Wayne... Party on Garth! Well... Things went a little crazy on the desk while I was away yesterday... When I returned home last night, I had a ton of emails from the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and that's usually a sign that things didn't go well! Frank plays hockey on Friday mornings, and said he will call me to bring me up to date on his way to hockey......

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 9:10 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Gold, The Fed, Citigroup, Retail Sales, FOMC

When Will The Fed Be Called Out?

* More dollar strength... * Conspiracy theories... * BOC leaves rates unchanged... * A euro chart discussion... **Front and Center this morning, the dollar continued to hold the advantage over the euro and other currencies yesterday and in the overnight market... The euro did attempt to rally overnight, but that move was thwarted, as an European Central Bank (ECB) member, Stark, threw cold water on the rally. Stark, said that "the markets have understood the Governing Council's signal", which meant the markets understood that the ECB was going to raise rates in July... But then the cold water came flying out of the bucket as Stark then said, "However, we are not talking about a series of rate increases."...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:41 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, The Fed, Bank of Canada