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  • 3rd QTR GDP Is Strong!

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar gets sold after GDP report
    * High yielders get bought!
    * German Retail Sales decline...
    * Real has wild swings!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I can't believe how hard it rained here yesterday... Unbelievable! And me, with my cane, and not able to run, was stuck in it going from the car... Absolutely soaked! If I were a kid, I would have thought that to be fun! But, I'm not... It's still raining this morning too! UGH! Let's hope it stops in time for the Trick-or-Treaters!

    OK... Well the rain fell on the dollar's parade yesterday too! And, just like I thought it would do... The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a state fair, once the U.S. 3rd QTR GDP report printed... The dollar rally was stopped in its tracks, which meant that the "trading theme" that rewards the dollar when things look bad in the U.S. and punishes it when things look good, which is completely opposite of what it should do fundamental wise, was still in place!...
  • A New Carry Trade Currency?

    In This Issue..

    * A bias to buy dollars remains...
    * The Fed was warned as far back as 1999!
    * Fujii gets 'the memo'!
    * A ton o' data all around the globe this week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! My weekend turned out to be quite grand, as all the things I said that would make it special came to pass! My Cardinals clinched their division. My beloved Missouri Tigers won on Friday night, and my little buddy's 8th grade Flyers won their game against their arch rival... WOW!

    Well... Here we go with the last 3 days of September... A month that saw Gold return to $1,000, and the non-dollar currencies all return to levels they held a year ago, having withstood the onslaught of flight to safety trades that benefitted the dollar after the Lehman Bros collapse....
  • The Dollar Gets Ambushed!

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies soar!
    * Weber gives the green light...
    * Is the Fed buying more Treasuries?
    * China considering IMF's Gold!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday that needs no 'turn-around', as the currency actions VS the dollar overnight are amazing! The dollar got ambushed overnight, as the euro shot right straight through the 1.47 handle, and has just traded 1.48! Hmmm... Didn't I say yesterday that the I didn't think the dollar strength we were seeing was any change in the recent trend? ... I love it when a plan comes together!...
  • Feds Say NO To CIT...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies have strong day...
    * What are the qualifications?
    * JP Morgan posts 36% increase in earnings...
    * RBA attempts to keep A$'s in check...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! The first day this week that I've gotten up and to work at my normal time. I hit the wall yesterday afternoon, went home, watched about 10 minutes of the Wizard of Oz (my all-time fave movie) with granddaughter Delaney Grace, and then went to sleep! Crazy, I know, but when you hit the wall, you hit the wall!

    Yesterday was a strong day in the currencies. I wrote yesterday about how the euro was inching toward 1.41, but the level had been a tough row to hoe, with the euro giving back ground each time it went higher than 1.41... And... That was the case yesterday! The euro did trade higher than 1.41. It was 1.4120 when I left the office! But, as I turn on the screens this morning, the single unit has fallen below the 1.41 figure......
  • Increasing SDR Issuance...

    In This Issue..

    * Fed confuses markets, risk assets get sold...
    * SNB intervenes to stop franc's rise
    * ECB issues 12-month liquidity...
    * Bernanke to get grilled?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, I know the currencies and commodities got whipsawed yesterday, and my Cardinals got spanked, but that's no reason for us to not enjoy a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! Every day is a gift, and it has nothing to do with stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities!

    OK... Not that I try to be philosophical, sometimes it just comes out that way! Besides, you don't want to think that I'm just a smart *** all the time! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    Well, as I said in the open, the currencies and commodities got whipsawed yesterday, and the culprit was the FOMC minutes... You see, the Fed Reserve met to discuss rates, and other items. And what they said just blew away the bond vigilantes, and really ticked off the Hawks, but in the end, what they said, was really that things will remain status quo......
  • More Stimulus On The Way?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro leads currencies higher...
    * Commodities rally back on FOMC thoughts...
    * FOMC meeting today...
    * NZ Consumer Confidence on the rise...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday, the title of The Pfennig was: So Far... It's A Turn Around Tuesday! And... That theme played well throughout the day, and by day's end, it had been quite the Turn Around Tuesday! Now, we have to see what's in store for us today, as the last couple of weeks have seen the Wednesday trading quite the opposite of Tuesday's trading! Strange trading pattern don't you agree?

    Overnight, the euro climbed as high as 1.4140, only to sit at the cusp of 1.41 as I begin to write this morning. Of course 1.41 certainly looks a lot different from the 1.35-1.40 range we've seen in recent days. But then, we've seen these probes above 1.40 before only end with the euro falling back to the 1.35-1.40 range again......
  • Currencies and Commodities Sell Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Overnight markets ambush risk assets...
    * Germany's IFO Business Confidence gains again...
    * A$'s get pounded by opposite thought story...
    * More supply to auction off for the U.S....

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Father's Day weekend was grand... Mine sure was! I'm feeling the affects of the 'grand' weekend this morning too! And... It was the first day of Summer! So we had all that going for us, eh?

    Front and center this morning, I'm as proud as a peacock this morning. I just read an email from good friend, and excellent market analyst, Mary Anne Aden... Mary Anne sent me a note letting me know that the one and only Richard Russell had quoted me in his letter June 10th... She said it went something like...'this is from Chuck Butler's always terrific column...' WOW! Being quoted in Richard Russell's letter is like the top of the list for me!...
  • Happy Friday, Here We Go Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally gets wiped out...
    * Geithner to talk about a strong dollar?
    * Brazil cuts rates!
    * The Fed to control everything? YIKES!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Another seemingly long week for yours truly... Where's a 3-day Holiday weekend when you need one? Have you been following the goings on with the investigation into the Bank of America (BOA) purchase of Merrill Lynch? Whoa, there partner! I thought for sure this would get all swept under the rug, but it's all coming out, every dirty deed! Dirty deeds done dirt cheap!

    Before we get into the goings on there... Let's talk about the currencies and their huge jump yesterday, only to see chicken traders come out of the woodwork overnight to support the dollar going into the G-8 meeting....
  • A Rare Day, Indeed!

    In This Issue..

    * Stocks, bonds and dollars get sold!
    * The U.S. to lose our AAA credit rating?
    * A return to fundamentals day 2...
    * A Corporate Feed Good story for a Friday...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday here in St. Louis, as we bask in the sun of a 3-game sweep by my beloved Cardinals over the Cubbies! It's also the beginning of a 3-day Holiday weekend. It's Memorial Day on Monday! Time to reflect and give thanks for those that put their lives on the line for our freedom...

    OK... Front and Center this morning the Big Dog (euro) has left the porch and is chasing the dollar down the street! I got home yesterday afternoon, rested, and then checked the currencies at the NY closing before they handed the books over to Japan, and saw that the euro had leap-frogged to the 1.39 handle! WOW! What was going on?...
  • Fundamentals Return...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies & Gold move together!
    * Fed downgrades economic growth...
    * More on China...
    * Yen breaks the trading pattern...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' here, as the warm winds of spring have finally sprung, the Cardinals have won two in a row from the rival Cubs, and I'm headed to Busch Stadium tonight! Oh! And fundamentals, as far as currencies and metals are concerned, seemed to be in place yesterday...

    That's right... The rout on the dollar was on (recall yesterday, Wayne and Garth playing street hockey... Game On!) and this time... Not only did the currencies rally VS the dollar, Gold and Silver took part in the proceedings too! It's been a long time since we've seen this happen... For the most part, whenever the currencies (minus yen) rallied, Gold would back off, and vice versa... Not yesterday! For the first time in a long time, the negativity toward the dollar was front and center BIG TIME!...
  • Riksbank Holds Off On QE...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * German Investor Confidence rises!
    * Thoughts from Jim Rogers...
    * Kohn on the economy...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm staring at all this white space on the Pfennig template, and I absolutely drew a blank... I couldn't think of, or can't think of a thing to say! Whoa there partner! That can't happen! There's got to be something, anything, to talk about... OK! I'm back now, I really have no idea where that was going, it was an out of body experience! HAHAHAHA!

    OK... The currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, after the dollar had ambushed them on Friday and in the Sunday night trading sessions. It's been a week since we saw currency strength, other than Japanese yen. So, we should be due for a bounce. There continues to be more whispering about the eventual dollar weakness, but for now, it's not enough to get us back to where the dollar should be trading on a fundamentals basis....
  • High yeilders continue to rally...

    In This Issue...

    * High yeilders continue to rally...
    * Quantitative easing drives the markets...
    * Inventories to drive inflation...
    * Happy Birthday Chuck...

    Good day... I'm back from a long vacation with the family down in Florida, I had a great time but it actually feels good to get back to work. But before I get started this morning, I want to compliment Mike on what a fantastic job he did on the Pfennigs while Chuck and I were in Florida. Mike jumped right in and cranked out some great information, setting the bar rather high for me. We have a busy week ahead of us, so better get right to it.

    Currency investors continued to pull out of the dollar and move funds back into higher yielding currencies on Friday. The best performing currencies on Friday were the higher yielding commodity based currencies of Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Investors were eager to move money back into the higher interest rates available in these currencies as markets began to stabilize. With the Feds announcement last week that it will buy $300 billion of US government bonds, deflation is now a thing of the past. This purchase by the Fed monetizes the debt, basically pumping the cash directly into the markets. It is the most inflationary action the Fed can take, Bernanke has now put the printing presses in high gear. With deflation no longer a worry, commodity currencies have begun to look attractive again....
  • Hold on to your hat...

    * Fed opens the pocket book...
    * Creative measures...
    * Inflation/dollar debasement concern...
    * Currencies soar...

    Good day...And a Tub-Thumpin' Thursday to you. Well, yesterday was certainly one wild Wednesday for the record books. It started out like any other day we've had over the past week or so with the dollar down and many of the currencies up a bit, but nothing really out of the ordinary. Then it happened...the Fed adjourned and hit the markets with a big one.

    Many of the market participants weren't looking for an announcement or plans from the Fed to buy Treasuries today, but instead, were anticipating further discussions on how to proceed. It appears there has been disagreement on how to provide aggressive actions with interest rates already at rock bottom. The way they saw it, there were three options. One was to increase the TALF to buy frozen assets, another way was to expand purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency securities, or to begin buying long term Treasuries....
  • The Geithner Plan Day!

    * Talking stimulus again...* Currencies rally, then sell off... * Aussie Business Confidence slumps... * The Mogambo on Gold... ** The Geithner Plan Day! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The President talked to us last night regarding the "new and Improved" Stimulus package. He sounded a bit defensive, don't you think? But, I will say this, he tried to stay on the high road, when defending the package. He really ripped people like me, that oppose the package, and see it as spending only. I think he forgot to mention that people like me that oppose it, oppose it because we can't afford it! But the President firmly believes our economy could completely collapse without this, so I can see where he feels the urgency to get this bill signed. OK... Enough of that! I don't like talking about stuff like that, because I'll have 100 people write me nasty emails about politics, and 100 people write me that I was bang on!...
  • A "New & Improved Stimulus Package"

    * The dollar fights back! * Another $900 Billion in the red... * RBNZ cuts rates 150 BPS! * Jamie Dimon tells it like it is... ** A New & Improved Stimulus Package Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Well... The Fed kept rates at near zero, as if they had any ability to raise them, the House sent the Stimulus Bill on to the Senate, the dollar rebounded on all these two items, and I have some very strong quotes for you at the end of today's lesson... So, get your coffee, or OJ, or V-8, sit down, and let's go! OK, I had better start with the dollar reaction to the two items yesterday, as what looked like an end to this dollar strength mess, was about to take place as the euro pushed to 1.33, taking the other currencies along for the ride, was just a head fake... The dollar had more strength to show us, after the Fed kept rates unchanged, and the House passed the Stimulus Bill....
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