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  • A Huge Data Week...

    * Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...

  • Fed not as hawkish as expected...

    * Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....

  • A week of interest rate decisions...

    * A week of interest rate decisions... * Pound Sterling drops again... * Brazil and Mexico continue to dominate... * Gold and Silver fall... ** A week of interest rate decisions... Good day...The dollar stayed in the pretty tight range it has established over the weekend, gaining some strength over the weekend after losing some ground on Friday. Should be an exciting week as it is 'Interest Rate Decision' week as a number of central banks will be announcing their new rates. I think the rate announcements will reinforce my feelings that the world's economies are heading down divergent paths, with some economies heading down a recessionary path while others maintaining good growth rates. As expected, the US unemployment rose to the highest level in more than four years as employers cut jobs again in July. But the decrease in payrolls was slightly less than forecast, so some were saying 'it isn't as bad as we thought'....

  • Beware The Thin Markets...

    * ADP prints a huge downside surprise! * Euros get past 1.58... * A Perfect Storm? * Gold continues its move higher! ** Beware The Thin Markets... Good day... And a Happy pseudo-Friday to one and all! It is actually Thursday of course, but it's our Friday, as tomorrow is the 4th of July holiday here in the U.S. I think a lot about the Declaration of Independence these days, as I feel there is a faction of people here in the U.S. that would like to tear up the constitution... So, as we come to the day we celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence let's stop and remember that it's WE THE PEOPLE that make a difference in this country, certainly not anything that comes out of Washington D.C.! OK, I'm down from my soapbox... This could really be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as it has the potential to really kick some rear and take names later. Here's what I'm talking about......

  • Fundamentals Rule!

    * Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...

  • "Somewhat Receded"?

    * Fed leaves rates unchanged... * A dovish tone to the Fed... * Dollar Bulls run for the hills! * Norway raises rates... ** "Somewhat Receded"? Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... If you are a non-dollar owner, you might want to quickly go to the currency round-up to check on your currency / currencies... The Fed left rates unchanged and were quite dovish in their statement, and the dollar has been sent to the woodshed... Welcome back! Front and Center this morning, we have a currency rally going on, with the euro leading the dogs off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. The single unit has pushed past the 1.57 handle this morning, and the high yielders of Aussie, kiwi, and Brazil are all dancing in the streets because their positive rate differentials are even more in the face of traders now....

  • Dollar's Mini-rally ends...

    * Record iron ore price! * Ben Stein in the Pfennig! * Top 11 currency returns... * Mogambo on Gold... ** Dollar's Mini-rally ends... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The dollar's mini-rally yesterday stalled overnight, and once again the dollar bulls are having to cover euro shorts they put on. Yes, they NOW believe the Fed will not come through on it's claim to be an inflation fighter, and leave rates unchanged. That will keep the positive yield differential in the euro's favor (well, it would have anyway, but it keeps it unchanged). Remember though, who called out Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke when he said early this month that the "falling dollar had caused an unwelcome increase in inflation, and that he was "attentive" to the problem." Hogwash, said I!...

  • Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric...

    * More dollar strength... * Retail Sales surprise... * SARB raises rates! * Gold on the slippery slope... **Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It will be a Fantastico Friday (Hopefully) for the boys and girls in the St. Louis office, as we head to Busch Stadium tonight for a Cardinals baseball game... We even have a special guest that will be with us, so party on Wayne... Party on Garth! Well... Things went a little crazy on the desk while I was away yesterday... When I returned home last night, I had a ton of emails from the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and that's usually a sign that things didn't go well! Frank plays hockey on Friday mornings, and said he will call me to bring me up to date on his way to hockey......

  • FOMC Minutes Point To Problems...

    * Questioning the Fed's moves... * Euros slow down... * Aussie hits 25-year high... * Oil hits $135!...

  • IFO Send Euros Soaring Higher!

    * The euro rallies again! * Talking about Cross trades... * Kohn sings Ray Stevens... * FOMC minutes today......

  • The Dollar Swings A Mighty Hammer!

    * Hoenig's big fat cat! * Renminbi stalls... * Going out on the limb again... * Stocks get sold on oil price... ...

  • The Fed Follows Through...

    * Fed follows through... * GDP holds positive... * BOJ keeps rates unchanged... * Gold continues to drop......

  • Another Large Rate Cut From The Fed...

    * Are there more rate cuts coming? * Yen and Swiss kicking sand... * Emerging Markets High Yielders fall... * Buying Opportunities in Gold and Silver?...

  • Fed Force Feeds Funds Into the System...

    * Fed cuts discount rate...* Swiss franc above parity... * Japanese yen continues to climb... * Gold blows through $1,000......
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