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  • 3rd QTR GDP Is Strong!

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar gets sold after GDP report
    * High yielders get bought!
    * German Retail Sales decline...
    * Real has wild swings!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I can't believe how hard it rained here yesterday... Unbelievable! And me, with my cane, and not able to run, was stuck in it going from the car... Absolutely soaked! If I were a kid, I would have thought that to be fun! But, I'm not... It's still raining this morning too! UGH! Let's hope it stops in time for the Trick-or-Treaters!

    OK... Well the rain fell on the dollar's parade yesterday too! And, just like I thought it would do... The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a state fair, once the U.S. 3rd QTR GDP report printed... The dollar rally was stopped in its tracks, which meant that the "trading theme" that rewards the dollar when things look bad in the U.S. and punishes it when things look good, which is completely opposite of what it should do fundamental wise, was still in place!...
  • TARP Testimony Today...

    * What will Paulson say? * Dollar remains well bid... * How long for Safe Haven buyers? * G-20 Schmee 20! ** TARP Testimony Today... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I've been away for a few days to deal with something, I want to thank Chris once again for taking the conn on the Pfennig since last Thursday. He'll get it again at the end of this week and the beginning of next week, as I hope to get to Marco Island for the Wealth Masters Conference. Well... Nothing has changed since I left you last Wednesday. The awful economic data just keeps piling on, and the dollar gets bid up on safe haven purchases. We did see the Eurozone and Japan announce that they are in a recession... Chris was kind enough to leave me the following, so here's some more Chris.......
  • Heading Towards Zero...

    * Fed cuts rates 50 BPS! * Currencies rally Big! * 3rd QTR GDP to go negative? * I.O.U.S.A. ** Heading Towards Zero... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It certainly was a Tub Thumpin' Wednesday for the currencies, foreign stocks, commodities, and the Philadelphia Phillies! This by no means that the deep dense fog that has hung over the markets for 3 months has lifted for good... It did, however, lift for one day, and what a day it was! Oh, and the Fed did indeedly do cut their Fed Funds rate to 1%, which works out great since Fed Funds had been trading at 1% anyway! I had a reported from Dow Jones call me a few minutes after the rate cut and ask me my opinion on what the dollar was doing, which at the time was rallying back a bit... I said it looked like a classic case of buy the rumor sell the fact, that enough speculators were pushing the dollar lower ahead of the rate cut in hopes that a larger cut would be made. That, however, was not the case, and the dollar rallied... But only for about 20 minutes, and then it took a rid on the slippery slope, with the euro pushing to the 1.29 handle as I left for the day....
  • Here we go again...

    * Here we go again... * US numbers show further slowdown... * Norway cuts rates... * Switzerland moves to shore up UBS... ** Here we go again... Good day...The dollar rallied and the equity markets plunged yesterday as investors again pulled their money away from the markets. As we have seen over the past several weeks, when investors get worried about the state of the global economy, they rush back into cash, and in the world of cash the US$ is still king. Chuck has been talking about this trading pattern during his FX University presentations, and I'll start this morning's Pfennig off with his thoughts from Philadelphia, where he is hosting another day of FXU: Here we go again! The recession trap door gets sprung under the stock market, and things begin to look really bad in the U.S. again, and guess what? The dollar rallies... This just plays the trading theme over and over again... And Yen? It's back below 100! Risk gets taken out, and whatever carry trades that were brave enough to go back on after Monday, have been wiped out! Wiped out like the rally in Aussie dollars, which had rallied to +70-cents after Monday... And lost 5-cents today......