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  • Carry Trade reversals rally dollar / yen

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trade reversal boosts the dollar/yen...
    * STL Fed Head Bullard sends mixed signals...
    * Audit of Fed in jeopardy...
    * Kiwi and AUD fall...

    Good day... And a Thunderin Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues today, but I hear it is supposed to stop this afternoon. Fear of risk rained on the currency investors' parade as an equity market sell-off fueled a US dollar and Japanese yen rally. At times it looks as if we will break this pattern of markets up dollar down/ markets down dollar up, but it seems investors continue to return to the US$ and Japanese yen as soon as they become worried about equity market returns....
  • A New Year’s Jobs Jamboree Friday...

    * Will the ADP report be a good indicator? * China to slow treasury purchases? * Gold as a store of wealth... * Dealing with the devil... ** A Jobs Jamboree Friday... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, as it is forecast to get to 50 degrees today here in St. Louis. Never mind that tomorrow's high will be 29! It doesn't take away from today! What a trading day in the currencies yesterday... Whew! It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday, so let's not beat around the bush... It's time to Jamboree! Today is the day the Gov't prints the December Jobs Jamboree, and if Wednesday's ADP report did what they said it was going to, and that is change their methodology to mirror the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) then this morning's Jobs Jamboree will be a nightmare. Of course not the kind of nightmare that the over 2.5 million people that lost jobs in 2008 had! I was once in those numbers, as our old Bank, Mark Twain Bank, was bought by a bigger bank, Mercantile Bank, and Mercantile decided after a few months to perform ethnic cleansing of Mark Twain employees... I called it "my retirement" but with a 3 year old at home and on my lap most of the day, "retirement" couldn't last too long! My point is that you don't know the emptiness and failure you feel when they show you the door... So my thoughts are always with those that lose their jobs......
  • Fed not as hawkish as expected...

    * Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....
  • Taking On Risk Again!

    * Mexico's rate goes higher! * A 100 Billion dollar note? * Euro rates to go higher? * Oil's sell off might be short-lived... ** Taking On Risk Again! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! All my bags are packed, I'm ready to go, the taxi's waiting, he's blowing his horn... Yes, I'm off to Vancouver this morning... This becomes a labor of love for me especially today, with Chris taking off the same week I'm in Vancouver, I'm writing the Pfennig on my way to the airport! Graham Nash wrote a song about that... But I won't go there after the intro! Oh, what the heck! Just a song before I go... This will be short-n-sweet this morning, as I've got to get to the airport! Friday, saw the currencies range bound once again, as the data cupboard was empty. And... We didn't have any major losses print, or we didn't have any news at all about all the rot on the U.S. economy's vine. The Biggest mover was... Drum roll please... The Mexican peso! Yes, the Mexican peso outperformed all other currencies last week, reaching a 5-year high VS the dollar after the Mexican Central Bank raised interest rates 1/4% (25 BPS) to 8%, pushing the peso to its highest level VS the dollar since 2003!...
  • Jawboning The Dollar Higher...

    * More bias to buy dollars... * Printing money... * Kiwi gets hit hard! * Rate announcements today......