Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Have You Seen This?

  • China & Russia Team Up...

    In This Issue..

    * U.S. data is stronger...

    * Loonie rallies on jobs data...

    * krona rallies on IP data...

    * An end to the bond rally?

    ...
  • 'Unusually Uncertain' times…

    In This Issue..

    * 'Unusually Uncertain' times push the $ lower...
    * European data show further strength...
    * Goldman economists need a vacation...
    * China to unveil the 'secret sauce'???

    Good day. Another busy day here at EverBank yesterday, but today promises to be a bit of a break. All of our visitors left late yesterday afternoon, and the systems which I have been testing are down for the next few days. The weather also looks like it has finally calmed down a bit after Thunderstorms rolled through again yesterday afternoon. The markets probably won't calm down, as we have a plethora of data releases today along with further testimony from Bernanke and the release of the European stress tests....
  • Big Al Talks Deficit Financing...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies hold gained ground VS dollar...
    * Swiss franc really shines!
    * Japan borrows a line from the U.S....
    * The Labor problem grows...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, especially if you are a Los Angeles Lakers fan! Me? I've always been a fan of the Celtics, but since it's a long distance directory assistance relationship, it's not that big of a deal to me that they lost. When I was a kid, the Hawks were in St. Louis, and we won a championship, with Bob Pettit... OK, I was only 3... But my dad loved to talk about it!

    Well... We've had a day where the currencies gained VS the dollar, and then held their ground, for the most part... No profit taking, no debt crisis fears trading, just held their ground VS the dollar... Now, some would say... 'that's a sign that they've hit resistance and can't overtake it, which is not good for a rising asset'... But, me? Well, I would say, and will say... 'I find this to be refreshing. The last thing you want to see is an asset, which in this case is a currency like the euro, run up too much, too fast, for that WILL give the markets reason to sell. I prefer the slow gradual, stealth-like moves in currencies, so that they don't gain any attention, until the rally is well established.'

    ...
  • A Return To Debit Crisis Trading...

    In This Issue..

    * Strong euro rally fizzles out overnight...
    * Russia to add C$ and A$'s?
    * IMF sides with U.S. on Chinese currency policy...
    * Aussie housing starts are strong...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday... Man! Did we have some torrential downpours yesterday! The creek that my yard backs to was 'a risen'! I can't imagine all the rainouts of ballgames this spring... It's one of the things that drove me crazy, when I was a baseball manager...

    OK... The rain was coming down hard on the dollar yesterday too... But, this morning, when I turn on the screens, it looks like that dollar selling that went on all day yesterday, has had the brakes applied. I would say slammed on, but it all happened while I was sleeping, so I don't really know for sure!...
  • China's GDP Soars 10.7%!

    In This Issue..

    * China has strong 4th QTR growth...
    * Time to let the renminbi gain VS the dollar...
    * Debt Ceiling is getting raised $1.9 Trillion...
    * Russian Central Bank is buying loonies...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Another day of dollar strength, in this switch from risk assets to dollar denominated assets... Again, I question the mental giants behind all this, for the U.S. is what caused this problem... And now traders turn to the U.S.???? Oh well, sure seems like it would be different if I were in charge! Of course, a LOT of things would be different if I were in charge! But that's a discussion for another day!

    Yesterday's Pfennig could set a record for the length, I think! So, I promise I won't go that long today!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the news overnight from China that their 4th QTR GDP accelerated to the fastest level since 2007... Chinese GDP for the 4th QTR was +10.7%!!!!! Talk about 'nailing' that call! The annual figure for China comes in at +8.7%, but in reality, who cares about the 1st QTR, when in the 4th and most recent quarter, growth was kicking tail and taking names later! In addition, China posted a higher consumer inflation figure than expected at +2%... And Retail Sales in China soared 16.9%! WOW!...
  • RBA Hikes Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Global Growth gets supporting data!
    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * Gold heads toward $1,200!
    * Canada exits their recession...
    RBA Hikes Rates Again!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And... Welcome to December! It's a grand month in my book, even if it does get quite cold! In fact, after reaching 60 degrees today, they say we'll get our first snow tomorrow night! So... Long time readers know all too well, that I'll begin whining about it being cold, and how I've got to go where it's warm... There will be no change from that this year, so be prepared!

    Well... It's a full-on, Risk On day this morning... Front and center, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did indeed raise interest rates last night (their Dec. 1st!), India's economy posted a strong 3rd QTR, and China posted a strong manufacturing number... And! The Dubai thing is waning... But, I want to talk to you about something that I wrote in the Pfennig about a week ago... So, we've got a lot on our plates to go through today, so let's get started!...
  • Green Light, Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC minutes make it a Risk On Day!
    * Gold hits $1,180!
    * Germany's ZEW is bang on with their forecast!
    * Russia to buy loonies?

    It's a Risk On Day, full on, no 'kind of' today! Or at least that's how it looks as I begin to write this morning... The Big Dog, euro, is back over 1.50 this morning, and Gold is trading at $1,177! What brought about this full on Risk On day?

    Well... It was the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes... And, when I read what the Fed Heads had to say, I had one song in my mind... Hey! You! Get off of my cloud! Because that's where their collective heads are with these minutes, folks... The Fed Heads viewed the U.S. economy on firmer footing and expects the growth to continue in the 4th QTR... Yeah, right, and I've got some swamp land I'd like to sell you! Snake Oil salesmen these guys!

    Any way... The Fed Heads also said that the dollar's depreciation had been 'orderly'... With no mention of doing anything to stop the depreciation! Green light, Green light, Green light... How many of these Green lights do traders and you need to realize that the Fed isn't going to stop the dollar's decline? And How about the Treasury? Oh! That's right, they're too busy shoving negative yields down people's throats! OK, I'm getting all ticked off, and I really don't feel like doing that today, so I'm going to talk about something else, fast!...
  • Back To Risk Aversion Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Earnings reports begin this week...
    * Dollar, yen, francs get bought...
    * Medvedev shows off new coin!
    * A busy week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Home Run Derby Monday to boot! I have no Idea what's going on this morning, as I just woke up, and it's very late in the morning! I was very careful to set my alarm last night, and I've never been one of those people that hit the snooze button when it goes off, but here I am, waking up late... UGH!

    So... I'm writing from home, and then I'll shoot in to work... We're short handed this week, so, I'm sure everyone will be arriving to the office, not see my car, and be a little ticked... So, I've got a surprise for them, something they've never seen... Me come in late!...
  • Gold Vending Machines!

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * SNB doesn't target the franc...
    * Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
    * Buy your gold and Snickers!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

    The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Russia's Fin Min talks up the dollar!
    * Currencies, commodities, stocks all lose ground...
    * Who's car is uglier
    * Gold hit a 3-week low...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! How about that weekend? I actually didn't get a chance to experience much of it outside, but it sure looked great! We have new champions in basketball and hockey, so congrats to the Lakers and Penguins on their Championships! Now, the housecleaning is out of the way... It's time to get to the meat... Where's the beef? HA!...
  • The Geithner Plan Day!

    * Talking stimulus again...* Currencies rally, then sell off... * Aussie Business Confidence slumps... * The Mogambo on Gold... ** The Geithner Plan Day! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The President talked to us last night regarding the "new and Improved" Stimulus package. He sounded a bit defensive, don't you think? But, I will say this, he tried to stay on the high road, when defending the package. He really ripped people like me, that oppose the package, and see it as spending only. I think he forgot to mention that people like me that oppose it, oppose it because we can't afford it! But the President firmly believes our economy could completely collapse without this, so I can see where he feels the urgency to get this bill signed. OK... Enough of that! I don't like talking about stuff like that, because I'll have 100 people write me nasty emails about politics, and 100 people write me that I was bang on!...
  • Its all about the yen...

    * Japan dominates news wires... * US retail sales to drop... * Russia devalues the ruble again... * Happy Birthday Kathy Butler... ** Its all about the yen... Good day...Hope everyone had a wonderful holiday, I had a great Christmas and Christmas eve. I ate entirely too much, but that is one of the joys of the holidays! Most of the markets were closed yesterday, and trading was very light on Christmas eve. The Asian markets were open, and the dollar did sell off a bit vs. most of the major currencies with the one exception being the Japanese yen. Unless we see a big bounce today, the yen will end the day with the first weekly loss vs. the US$ in two months. With a majority of markets closed, most news stories centered around the Japanese yen. Japanese industrial production fell the most in 55 years as reported on Wednesday. Factory output plunged 8.1% from October, more than 6.8% estimated by economists. Other data released in Japan showed the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% from 3.7%, and household spending slid .5%, a ninth drop....