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  • The Dollar Gets Ambushed!

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies soar!
    * Weber gives the green light...
    * Is the Fed buying more Treasuries?
    * China considering IMF's Gold!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday that needs no 'turn-around', as the currency actions VS the dollar overnight are amazing! The dollar got ambushed overnight, as the euro shot right straight through the 1.47 handle, and has just traded 1.48! Hmmm... Didn't I say yesterday that the I didn't think the dollar strength we were seeing was any change in the recent trend? ... I love it when a plan comes together!...
  • Retail Sales Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Retail Sales!
    * China likes investments in Canada...
    * Big Ben the 'inflation fighter'...
    * Gold climbs to $1,018!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Good news for me this morning, the pain in my left knee has subsided... Now, If I could just get that swelling to go down, I'd be in tall cotton! This has been quite the ordeal on the old Pfennig writer, and one that I will be glad to put in the rear view mirror!

    Well... When I turned on the currency screens this morning, the euro was trading with a 1.47 handle! WOW! It just skipped to my Lou right through the 1.46 handle, eh? It began yesterday afternoon, the dollar was getting sold on the news of a strong Retail Sales figure, more on that in a minute, and the euro was edging up the 1.46 ladder... The move to get it past 1.47 came in the overnight markets... Now, having gotten you all lathered up about 1.47, I have to say that since I turned on the currency screens, the euro has lost ground back to 1.4688, but still... That's quite an impressive move from yesterday morning, eh?

    ...
  • German Investor Confidence Soars!

    In This Issue..

    * ZEW says Germany is on the mend...               
    * UK inflation remains higher than expected...         
    * Safe Haven, what safe haven?                              
    * Housing data remains soft...                                                                     

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I received an injection of steroids into my left knee yesterday, and already today, I can tell that they are working their magic! I guess I'll have to give up my plans to try out for the Cardinals next year, now! HA! So, my knee is recovering from 3-weeks of agonizing pain and swelling... I've got that going for me!

    And the currencies seem to be recovering this morning too, from the recent go around in the ring with the risk aversion campers. The currencies (except yen), were last seen yesterday up against the rope, doing their best imitation of the rope-a-dope.

    ...
  • Cash For Clunkers Is A Clunker!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range again...
    * U.S. Retail Sales are a clunker!
    * RBA's Stevens is upbeat!
    * Thoughts on Brazil...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of the week... It's been a tough week for yours truly, as I've hobble around in pain all week. But, as I recall, I promised 2 years ago that I would not complain about these things in the future... So! I carry on!

    Well... Front and center this morning... The currencies are trading near levels they were when I signed off yesterday morning. They did have a brief rally, after the U.S. Retail Sales data showed some real rot on the 'recover is here' vine... But that rally was snuffed out, as the risk aversion campers came back to the markets......
  • Currencies Rebound...

    In This Issue..

    * Goldman posts a nice profit...
    * I smell a rat!
    * Euro nears the 1.41 mark... Again!
    * Gold manipulation?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another All-Star Game, another win for the American League... I truly believed that with Tim Lincecum going for the National League, that we would win this year... But that didn't work out... I did truly enjoy the game though, and got to experience it with sons, Andrew, and Alex, with Darling Daughter Dawn's husband, Jerry... A truly memorable night...

    The currencies slowly moved a bit higher yesterday, and the euro is back to 1.40 this morning... The move came as stocks rebounded some, after reports of a better than expected earnings report for Goldman Sachs. Hmmm... Now, doesn't that just tick you off a little? Here's Goldman Sachs who just months ago, changed to a Bank Holding Co, so it could take TARP money, then paid it back a month ago, and now, prints a Moon Shot profitable earnings report... I guess I should be happy for them... Unfortunately, I smell a rat......
  • Happy Friday, Here We Go Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally gets wiped out...
    * Geithner to talk about a strong dollar?
    * Brazil cuts rates!
    * The Fed to control everything? YIKES!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Another seemingly long week for yours truly... Where's a 3-day Holiday weekend when you need one? Have you been following the goings on with the investigation into the Bank of America (BOA) purchase of Merrill Lynch? Whoa, there partner! I thought for sure this would get all swept under the rug, but it's all coming out, every dirty deed! Dirty deeds done dirt cheap!

    Before we get into the goings on there... Let's talk about the currencies and their huge jump yesterday, only to see chicken traders come out of the woodwork overnight to support the dollar going into the G-8 meeting....
  • Who's Foolin' Who?

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs Jamboree gets a lift...
    * The real numbers...
    * The dollar comes back with vengeance!
    * RBNZ to meet this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! You know the Jobs Jamboree data that printed on Friday, and created some HUGE euphoria among the media types that love to just "read the news" and not actually do the research to report it? Yes... It was a very good number, on the outside... Not that losing 345,000 jobs in a month is a good thing, but it is far better than the near 700,000 jobs lost a couple of months ago.

    So... I've got that to talk about today... And the rebound by the dollar that has taken the euro to the 1.38 handle and looking as if it is going to go lower... And, then finally, I have to get on my soapbox again, because I don't think I want my President calling me names! So, all that and more as we begin this 2nd week of June......
  • He Said What?

    In This Issue..

    * Foreclosures rise...
    * Green Shoots, no so green!
    * getting on a bus...
    * Losing a triple A rating?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not wanting to start the day off with bad news... But I just saw a flash on the TV that said, 'foreclosures jumped 32% last month'... More Blood in the Streets, eh? That just happens to be the title of my presentation today... Blood in the Street: Bargain time or just a cease fire? Hey! I don't make these things up...

    OK... Another day here in Sin City... This city is packed with people, everywhere we go, it's simply amazing... There's been no sign of a recession here... Of course, if you got out of the casinos, and shows, you would see some of the greatest devastation any where in the housing market here... So.. It's not a seashells and balloons in Vegas... I guess with the economy so rotten, people are hoping to strike it rich in the casinos though... Hmmm, have they not figured out that these ginormous buildings are here to make money?...
  • Today is Tax Day!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * All Risk takers... Out of the pool!
    * Retail Sales really disappoint!
    * A plethora of data reports today...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... It's Tax Day, and to keep with tradition in the Pfennig... Here are the Beatles...

    (if you drive a car, car;) - I'll tax the street;
    (if you try to sit, sit;) - I'll tax your seat;
    (if you get too cold, cold;) - I'll tax the heat;
    (if you take a walk, walk;) - I'll tax your feet.

    Taxman!

    'Cause I'm the taxman,
    Yeah, I'm the taxman.

    OK... Every year, I bring you a different part of that song, which was so prevalent in my mind as I wrote out my check last night to mail my taxes......
  • All Eyes On Retail Sales...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound
    * Singapore's big announcement...
    * China's currency gets back on rally tracks...
    * BHI says to expect a rebound in sales...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm feeling marginally better today, so I've got that going for me! You should have seen the currency screens lighting up yesterday... WOW! A lot of pent up trading from a Friday that saw thin volume due to the Holiday. This type of volume, even with a few countries still on Holiday too!

    The volume... Was all good for the currencies, as that bias to sell dollars I talked about really came shining through on the day. As I signed off yesterday, I told you that the euro had rallied since I had come in, and that rally took off in the early morning trading. The single unit climbed to near 1.34 before giving back ground in the afternoon....
  • On the turning?

    * SNB surprise... * Currencies continue... * Retail Sales... * Recipe for inflation... And Now... Today's Pfennig! On the turning? Good day...And a Fantastic Friday to you. It would be nice to have some of that warm weather they have in Jacksonville make its way north, but hopefully its right around the corner...patience. Yesterday was a wild ride so hopefully you had that seat belt fastened tight and both hands on the wheel. I have a lot to talk about so I'll get right to it... We were greeted yesterday morning with some big news out of Switzerland where they not only cut rates to .25% from .50% but also decided to take matters into their own hands. Chuck sent me some thoughts before he left for vacation, so here you go. 'The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervened in the markets yesterday with a bang! The SNB sold francs for euros and dollars to further reduce the price of money (since they've already cut interest rates to the bone). Francs went from 86-cents to 84-cents in one day! UGH!'...
  • A Day Of Healing...

    * Currencies have a mini-rally... * Only to see profit taking overnight... * Gold rebounds too! * Retail Sales on board today... ** A Day Of Healing... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It was a Tub Thumpin' Wednesday yesterday for the currencies and Gold, after seeing them back off earlier this week! I'm in Jacksonville for a company event, and then on Friday morning, I head south to start my spring vacation! But first, some work to do here, and then on to the south! It was 29 degrees when I got in the car to leave for the airport yesterday morning... And it was 77 degrees when I finally arrived in Jacksonville! YAHOO! But even as loud as I can say YAHOO for the warm weather, which I've said over and over again, I've got to go where it's warm, it wasn't as loud as a the YAHOO yelped by currency owners as the euro led the currencies higher and higher all day long!...
  • A Retail Sales Surprise!

    * 623K new unemployment claims filed.. * G-7 begins today.. * Dealing from a position of strength.. * Valentine's Day tomorrow! ** A Retail Sales Surprise! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Front and center this morning, a Continental regional plane crashed near the Buffalo airport overnight, and all 48 on the plane were killed, along with 1 person in a home. Not Happy news for a Friday morning, for sure... Our thoughts should be with the familes of these people today... I want to say thank you to all who responded yesterday to me regarding my hissy fit I had yesterday morning regarding the minority objections to my opinions... The vote is in... It was a landslide in favor of me being me, and not what the few objectors want me to be. So, I will continue writing the Pfennig in the manner the majority expect... I don't want this to sound cold, but those that feel the need to send me nasty emails, could you please just unsubscribe instead?...
  • Retail sales disappoint even more…

    * Retail sales disappoint.... * Chuck's views on the Lone Prop... * Waiting on the ECB... * Emerging market currencies sell off... ** Retail sales disappoint... Good day... The big news yesterday was the retail sales numbers, which fell twice as much as expected. Chuck predicted a tough Christmas season, and the BHI was right again. Sales dropped 2.7 percent according to yesterday's report from the Commerce Department. The falling home prices, rising job losses, and tighter credit have all combined to finally force US consumers to adjust their spending habits. No matter how low retailers slashed prices during the recent Christmas season, US consumers just weren't buying. The economy is forcing consumers to wean themselves off of the dangerous drug of easy credit. In spite of Bernanke and Paulson's attempts to get consumers borrowing and spending again, the economic slowdown is forcing the US consumers to reign in their spending. But while this change in consumer habits is good for the longer term economic health of the US, it only serves to drive the economy even further into recession over the short term. And the bad economic data just keeps rolling in. U.S. foreclosure filings spiked by more than 81% in 2008, a record, according to a report released Thursday, and they're up 225% compared with 2006. The total foreclosure filings in 2008 topped 3 million and showed no signs of slowing down in spite of the efforts of both the government and banking industry to slow them down. Foreclosure filings actually accelerated in the 2nd half of the year, increasing 17% in December over November of 2008....
  • The Dollar Swings A Mighty Big Hammer!

    * Another dollar rally.... * Rumors in Ireland... * Trade Deficit narrows... * Retail Sales to disappoint? ** The Dollar Swings A Mighty Hammer! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm writing from home today, as I will not be in the office on this wonderful Wednesday. Writing from home, or the road, always presents problems for me, as I'm so used to being in the "saddle" at my desk, and having information all around me. But, my little work desk at home has some of those amenities... So, what the heck, quit your grumpiness, and get to writing, Chuck! The dollar ripped through the 1.32 handle of the euro yesterday, like a hot knife goes through butter! There was little to no resistance in that 1.32 handle, and before you could tell one of the many people on the desk here that sneeze all day, God Bless you, we were trading with a 1.31 handle in euros. The talk about a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut has really ramped up this week, and taken its toll on the single unit. No one is mentioning that even if the ECB cuts 75 BPS this week, they'll still have a an interest rate / yield advantage over the U.S! I guess they'll sort that all out somewhere down the line, eh?...