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  • Oil spikes up in global confidence.

    In This Issue..

    * Oil surges to a three month high...
    * Bernanke is confident US consumers will spend again...
    * RBA keeps rates on hold...
    * Silver outshines Gold...

    Good day... When you have been in this business as long as I have, certain patterns become apparent; and one of those patterns showed back up yesterday. In the 20+ years that I have been working with Chuck, it always seemed the currencies rally whenever Chuck spends a week or two away from the desk. We call it 'Chuck's vacation rally'. Yesterday we saw the dollar drop and the currencies bounce back up beginning what looks like another leg in the long term trend....
  • Employment Disappoints...

    In This Issue..

    * Fundamentals creep back into markets...
    * Dollar gets sold...
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged...
    * U.K. makes right moves...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Did you have a grand Independence Day Holiday Weekend? I sure did! I got to see two ballgames, one very bad, one good. Spend time with the kids, friends, and relax a little... WOW! Now that I think of it, the weekend was more grand than I first thought!

    The currencies traded yesterday, but in very tight ranges, as the U.S. was on holiday. This morning, the bias is to sell dollars, much like it was on Friday before the liquidity of Europe went to the pubs... Let's go back now, and revisit Friday's action...

    Well... More proof that the double dip is coming on Friday......
  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • Risk Aversion Is Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bashing is back!
    * Canadian GDP jumps to 6.1%!
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged
    * 7-U.S. cities have 'junk debt'...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And welcome to June! As Pfennig tradition would have it... June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes, And the rompin' river pushes, Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was just a 'rock-n-roller!'

    Well... Yesterday while we were honoring the fallen soldiers of today and yesteryear, the Europeans were knocking the stuffing out of the euro once again... This time, it was a story that spread like wildfire regarding the Eurozone economy not being able to have strong growth, because of all their austerity measures... Now... Come on boys! First you slam the euro's fingers in the door (OUCH!) for not cutting deficit spending in a few countries, and when they do show a willingness to cut deficit spending, you the ruler out and smack the euro right across the wrist!

    ...
  • The Twilight Zone...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bounces off 4-year low...
    * Gold Sells off again!
    * Greek receives first installment...
    * RBA to take a summer vacation...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I think the rain has stopped, for now at least! I feel like someone picked up St. Louis, and moved it to Seattle! Hey! It rains there a lot, but they know it is going to do so! Me? I begin to feel like I have cabin fever, not having the sunshine... So... Hopefully today, eh?

    OK... The price action in the euro yesterday, which has dominated the currency trading for a month now, was something out of the Twilight Zone... Help I'm slipping into the Twilight Zone, The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned... Yes... That Twilight Zone... While the other currencies from Norway and Australia, were getting hammered, for no apparent reason I must add, the euro rallied in the early morning to near 1.24... Then turned on a dime, and by the time my turkey sandwich on wheat arrived at my desk, the single unit was back to trading below 1.23... But... Then, by the time I packed up to go home, the euro was back to 1.24... The strange thing about this swing, was that there was nothing, nada, zero, zilch, a big goose egg of news, data, or official slant to trade off of......
  • RBA raises interest rates...

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  • First week of April...

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs come in higher...
    * This week in data...
    * Will the RBA raise...
    * Is China sold on global recovery...

    Good day...And welcome to the first week of April. Hopefully everybody was able to enjoy the weekend...I know I sure did. Chuck is feeling under the weather today and Chris is still on vacation so I've been called from the bench to Pfill in today. It's always tough to get going on a Monday morning so it will probably be short and sweet today. So, on that note...let's jump right in.

    As Chuck mentioned Friday, we finally saw the color of the March employment figures and, as expected, we saw the jump most were looking for. Although the actual number of 162k was lower than the expected 184k gain, March represented the highest figure in 3 years. All three of the employment categories were in positive territory and each had revisions to the upside from last month's results....
  • U.S. States In Deep Trouble!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... A Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hope your Tuesday was Terrific! Day one with just my little buddy Alex and me at home went off without a hitch... I took him to the jazz guitar teacher, and he sounded great! He auditions for the high school jazz band on Thursday. He'll be just a freshman, so it will be quite the uphill battle for him to make the band in his first try... But... He's so darn good!

    Well... I have to say front and center this morning, that while it may have taken the currency traders 1/2 day to realize that Australia had raised rates, to finally begin to push the A$ higher VS the green/peachback... I was beginning to think yesterday that I was going to have to have egg all over my face again, when the A$ didn't respond right away... But it was all right on the night, so it's no egg on the face for me!...
  • RBA Hikes Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... Well... I'm back in the saddle! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It didn't take long for me to get the emails started telling me how wrong I am again... WOW! Of course, I wonder where these people have been the last 9 years, as when 9 years ago I was the first writer to issue a white paper calling for the long term down trend for the dollar... Or, in 2002, when everyone was writing off the euro, I wrote the white paper, 'The Year of The euro'... Or in, 2005, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me... Or, in 2008, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me...

    Is this time different? I doubt it... Lose value for 6 more months? In my opinion yes... But then returning to the underlying weak dollar trend. Look folks, if you really think that by sending me emails telling me I'm wrong, and I'm stupid, and everything else, that I'm going to change my mind on this... Then you might as well stop! Or... Start writing that great American, NOT! George Soros, and tell him how great he is......
  • A 34 Billion Euros Package For Greece!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade up, then back down...
    * RBA to hike rates this week?
    * Jamie Dimon on California VS Greece...
    * Fannie needs another $15 Billion!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to March! My fave month! Yes, it's me this morning... You were under the impression that it would be Chris this morning, and back to me tomorrow... But here I am... I'll rock you like a hurricane! HA! Chris had some fatherly duties this morning, so I took the conn back one day early... I'll still rest today after a long, difficult week last week in Scottsdale, and will be back in the saddle tomorrow, as planned.

    Well... What have we here? News broke on this past Saturday, that a package of 30 Billion euros was going to be provided to Greece from German and French state banks, and investors... The amount then turned to $34 Billion... Now... You know me... And I'm not in favor of 'bail outs'... Throwing good money at bad... And all that, but... This looks like it's what the markets wanted to see, for the currencies, especially the higher yielding currencies are receiving a bias to buy this morning...

    ...
  • Risk Returns This Week...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk assets remain well bid overnight...
    * RBA Gov. Stevens talks hawkish about rates...
    * China reduces Treasury purchases for 5th straight month...
    * Brazil outperforms its BRIC colleagues!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! WOW! Thanks so much for all the kind words sent along regarding the jazz bank performance... That sure is nice to know of all the very kind people / readers out there! Of course, I already knew that 3 years ago, when it was announced that I had cancer...

    OK... Front and Center this morning, we saw quite the rally in risk assets yesterday, all day, and all night! It was like the sea parted, the stars aligned, and the karma began to flow... The global economic recoveries came back into the thoughts of traders and investors, and the fears of Greece waned... It was as if none of the 'sky if falling' theatrics had gone on the past month!...
  • Global Growth Takes A Hit!

    In This Issue..

    * Back to the 'safe haven' trades...
    * The dollar hammers the euro!
    * ECB & BOE meet today...
    * Brazilian games with the real...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! On one hand it's tub Thumpin' because I'm here in what was sunny Florida yesterday... And on the other hand, it's not tub Thumpin' because I'm here in Florida! Yeah, writing on the road is not one of my fave things to do, but I'll struggle through it...

    Well... The news that Chris brought to you yesterday, regarding the mini-rally in the currencies, led by the euro climbing back to 1.40, was completely washed out by the time the wheels on his plane touched down here in Orlando yesterday afternoon. Chris had said as he signed off that the dollar was being bought right then, and he was right... And that buying of the dollar lasted all day!...
  • Governor Stevens and the RBA surprises the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar slides as risk returns...
    * RBA surprises the markets...
    * Gold moves higher...
    * Obama offers up record deficits...

    Good day... And a happy Ground Hog day to everyone! Yes, today is the day Phil decides if we are going to have more winter weather or a quick spring. While I can find something to like during all of the seasons, I do find myself hoping we see a quick end to the cold weather as we turn the calendar over to February. Unfortunately, the folks who make a living predicting the weather don't believe we will get an early spring this year, but their record is about as good as Groundhog Phil's, so we will just have to wait to see what Mother Nature brings us. Kristin and I will be joining Chuck down in Orlando tomorrow, so hopefully a few days of warm weather will hold me over until April....
  • The Markets Ignore Bernanke...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to get bought...
    * German Investor Confidence weakens...
    * The Carry Trade shifts to Japan again...
    * More deficit spending...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Not a Terrific Tuesday for the non-dollar currencies though, as the overnight markets have marked them down once again, and favored the dollar... More on that in a minute... I got a chance to meet up with some old friends and co-workers last night, at a holiday party... I had to leave early though, my leg couldn't stand that long... UGH!

    OK... The daily noise, has the bias to buy going toward the dollar this morning... For some unknown reason, and I emphasize this here... The markets are not listening to Big Ben Bernanke, when he says that current near zero interest rates will remain for 'some time to come'... You see, the markets are under the impression that he's giving us a head fake, and will raise rates aggressively very soon, for the data that has printed recently is of the "need to raise interest rates before inflation takes the economy hostage" kind of stuff......
  • Abu Dhabi Provides $10 Billion Bailout...

    In This Issue..

    * A Huge Friday Sell off!
    * U.S. Retail Sales are strong...
    * Testing the risk waters again...
    * Norges Bank & Riksbank meet this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Friday turned out to be Fantastico, as I had hope for, and the weekend was for resting, as I was on my feed too much Friday night. It was NOT a Fantastico Friday for the non-dollar currencies, though... I'll get to that in a minute... First though, I want to crow a bit on the Dubai debt problems...

    It was announced this morning that Dubai's government received $10 Billion in financing from Abu Dhabi... Hmmm... You know, I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago, when this debt /loan repayment problem was announced, that in the end, the Abu Dhabi government would step in to bail out Dubai, for the people running the two governments are blood related, and even though there had been shots fired between the two, blood would run thick here... And voila that's exactly what happened!...