Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • ‘For Much Longer’...

    In This Issue..

    * Aussie PM resigns!
    * Aussie mining tax is dead!
    * New Home Sales plummet 33%!
    * Fed is not so "cocky" any longer...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because of some good, no great news from Australia overnight! It certainly isn't because of the Housing data that printed yesterday! And the Fed isn't so 'cocky' about the economy suddenly... Hmmm... These things and more, as we explore our Tub Thumpin' Thursday, so let's go!

    Front and Center this morning, Julia Gillard became Australia's first female prime minister after Kevin Rudd stepped aside as leader of the governing Labor Party, paving the way for the government to drop a controversial new 40% levy on mining profits that has damaged its standing in voter polls.

    ...
  • Re-Thinking China...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets sell off...
    * Is China trying to appease G-20?
    * Aussie commodity profits skyrocket!
    * Gold sells off by $22...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Are you full? You know appetite wise... Probably not, for most of you read the Pfennig in the morning, with a cup o' Joe... The renewed appetite for Risk that the markets were displaying yesterday disappeared yesterday afternoon... The markets were full of risk, I guess... For the selling was swift, and damaging to the levels the currencies, commodities, and stocks had gained overnight on the news that China would allow more flexibility in the renminbi...

    See how fickle these markets / traders are? Very! You had a day that everyone was looking forward to, China allowing the renminbi to gain VS the dollar again, and just threw it to the roadside... UGH!

    ...
  • Flexibility Is The Word Of The Day!

    In This Issue..

    * A Big Currency rally!
    * Renminbi to become flexible...
    * Unintended consequences...
    * Gold flies past line of resistance!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was Father's Day yesterday, I had a grand time, I hope you did too! It was extremely hot here, but shoot Rudy, it's summer... It's supposed to be hot!

    Well things heated up in the currencies this weekend... Yes, while everyone was wiping the milk from their mouths from their cereal they ate for breakfast on Saturday morning, the Chinese made a BIG announcement... Rather than tell you in my own words... Here is the official statement from the People's Bank of China (PBOC)......
  • Counting Flowers On The Wall...

    In This Issue..

    * A non-movement day in currencies...
    * Euro gets hit again by Greek debt levels...
    * Asia is bellwether for global growth...
    * Gold rallies!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I hear that the "rains" are coming today, and will be around until next Tuesday! We'll be water logged, eh? I want to thank everyone who sent along the 'welcome back' notes yesterday. I need to make something clear... I'm not at the office... Not yet, they won't let me... So, I'm writing from home, and I have to pat myself on the back because I didn't complain one iota about writing from home yesterday! HA!

    Talk about counting flowers on the wall, playing solitaire till dawn with a deck of 51, and all those other things that fall under the category of being bored, and dull... That was the day in currencies yesterday......
  • Germany's Merkel gets her way...

    In This Issue..

    * Germany's Merkel gets her way...
    * Confidence in the US ebbs lower...
    * China to stick to renminbi policy...
    * Gold stops sliding...

    Good day, we had another strong day for the dollar yesterday, with the greenback gaining against all of the majors. But overnight, the Asians and then the Europeans sold the dollar and moved money back into the currencies. So after another rollercoaster ride, we are basically right back where we were at this time yesterday morning. These volatile markets are likely to continue, as investors try to figure out if the global economy will recover or if we will slide back into recession. With all of this uncertainty, you would think investors would be moving into 'hard assets': Gold and Silver. But the markets for these two precious metals have been surprisingly quiet this year. More on the metals a bit later, first I will try to figure out these currency markets....
  • US data fails to move the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * US data fails to move the markets...
    * EU split on Greek bailout...
    * Rogers is a seller of pounds...
    * Goldman says the renminbi is fairly valued...

    Good day... It is Friday and the end of what seems like a long week for yours truly. While I have enjoyed my time in Florida, I look forward to be able to sit down at my desk to write Monday morning instead of dealing with intermittent access to the internet and a slight lack of market information. You can get the data just fine on the road, but you miss out on the 'feel' of the markets when you aren't on the desk.

    But luckily for me, economic data is what ruled the markets yesterday. We had a plethora of data released in the US, but the markets seemed to be focused on the release of CPI and the weekly jobs numbers. CPI led off Thursday morning's data showing prices in the US were unchanged for the month in February from the .2% gains we saw at the start of the year. The core number was up .1% offsetting a .1% dip in January. The YOY (year on year)number showed a drop in the inflation rate to 2.2% from 2.7%. We all know how manipulated this data is, and our friends over at ShadowStats reported the non-seasonally adjusted number was actually just over 5%, which is certainly more realistic. But while this number is higher than the 'official' number, it showed a similar decline; diffusing a rumor which swirled around the markets yesterday afternoon.

    ...
  • FOMC keeps rates low...

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC keeps rates low...
    * Carry trade is back on...
    * Senators try to legislate a higher renminbi...
    * An Irish toast...

    Top of the mornin to ye... Happy St. Patrick's Day to all of the Irish readers, and all of those who are Irish for the day! Both Chuck and I have pretty deep Irish roots, and St. Patrick's Day is always one of our favorites. Chuck will be spending the day enjoying baseball in the sunshine of Florida; and I will be heading to Florida myself later today. Speaking of which, I have to catch a plane in a couple of hours, so I better get going on today's Pfennig.

    ...
  • China's GDP Soars 10.7%!

    In This Issue..

    * China has strong 4th QTR growth...
    * Time to let the renminbi gain VS the dollar...
    * Debt Ceiling is getting raised $1.9 Trillion...
    * Russian Central Bank is buying loonies...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Another day of dollar strength, in this switch from risk assets to dollar denominated assets... Again, I question the mental giants behind all this, for the U.S. is what caused this problem... And now traders turn to the U.S.???? Oh well, sure seems like it would be different if I were in charge! Of course, a LOT of things would be different if I were in charge! But that's a discussion for another day!

    Yesterday's Pfennig could set a record for the length, I think! So, I promise I won't go that long today!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the news overnight from China that their 4th QTR GDP accelerated to the fastest level since 2007... Chinese GDP for the 4th QTR was +10.7%!!!!! Talk about 'nailing' that call! The annual figure for China comes in at +8.7%, but in reality, who cares about the 1st QTR, when in the 4th and most recent quarter, growth was kicking tail and taking names later! In addition, China posted a higher consumer inflation figure than expected at +2%... And Retail Sales in China soared 16.9%! WOW!...
  • The Dollar Rebounds Again...

    In This Issue..

    * Economic data deep sixes currency rally...
    * U.S. Treasury back at the auction window!
    * Yen's rose has faded...
    * Chinese renminbi spikes higher!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not trying to sound like a broken record here, but today is the last Wednesday of 2009... The last 'hump day' and so on... The non-dollar currencies got bushwhacked yesterday by the dollar bulls around mid-day, and there's been no recovery since. The Treasury is back at the auction table, with $32 Billion in 7-year Treasuries for you to buy at the fantabulous yield of.... Drum roll please.... 2.60%! All that and more, so buckle yourself in, and make certain to keep your arms and legs inside the Pfennig at all times during the ride!

    ...
  • U.S. Companies To Repatriate Profits?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * More deficit spending...
    * 10-year yields at 3 month highs...
    * A nice 9-year run for the non-dollar currencies...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The last Monday of 2009! And Yes... I'm Baaaaaacccckkkkk! Bet you were wishing I would remain on vacation through to the New Year... That's OK, I was wishing for the same thing last night! HA! I hope your Christmas or other celebration was grand... Mine was... Little Delaney Grace stole the show... I sat there watching her, thinking, how great it must be to not have a care in the world, except if her 'baby' needed changing!

    To not have to worry about deficit spending, knuckleheads making decisions against the wishes of their constituents, nut cakes running around shooting off missiles, and ramping up nuclear capabilities, and the beat goes on... The beat goes on......
  • It's A Risk On Monday!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies recover from Friday sell off!
    * Gold also recovers!
    * RBA to meet tonight!
    * Canada to exit their recession?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Thanksgiving was special. I had a great time on my day off on Friday, as we went to the country and cut down our Christmas Tree. Quite early for us this year, but you have to take advantage of the 'windows' of time when they pop open! I have to say something front and center this morning though... Last week when I would say we need to give thanks to groups of people, I missed out on something very special to me... My health... I'm thankful that I was allowed to fight cancer, and be around now when my little granddaughter, Delaney Grace is so darn cute!

    OK... Front and center on the currencies this morning, we have the fears of a default in Dubai, fading, and that brings the risk takers back out... So, we had one day of bloodletting on Friday, and come Monday, it'll be alright, Come Monday, I'll be holding you tight, no wait! Come Monday, the tourniquet had been applied, and things are back on track. The Big Dog, euro is off the porch, chasing the dollar down the street once again, and is trading at 1.5050, as I begin to write this morning.

    ...
  • Japan Posts a 4.8% GDP!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion goes away mad...
    * China just says 'no' to currency flexibility...
    * Maybe a return to fundamentals?
    * Gold continues to soar!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It's raining here, so it's one of those Rainy Days and Mondays... But I won't let it get me down, as opposed to the song! I got a chance to check out our new digs in the building next door to us here... Very nice! And... A long way from that small office I sat in on Olive St. a decade ago, when we started EverBank... To think back 10 years ago, and where we are today... Simply amazing!

    OK... As I told you Friday, the President was in China this past weekend, trying his best to get the Chinese to agree to a greater flexibility for the renminbi... Well... There were a few stories this past weekend that hinted about the Chinese agreeing to do such... But I prefer to go with this story that appeared on Reuters last night... 'The Chinese government has sought to distance itself from speculation surrounding a central bank statement earlier this week that was interpreted as a shift in currency policy towards a stronger yuan. However, a report on Saturday by Xinhua, the state-controlled Chinese news agency said that the government would not allow the currency to gain against the dollar in the short term.'

    ...
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

    In This Issue..

    * Comments spook currency traders...
    * A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
    * Geithner as the "joker"?
    * China changes statement about the renminbi...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

    That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

    So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......
  • Renminbi To Become An International Currency?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies give back ground overnight...
    * Don't look too closely at U.S. data...
    * India posts strong GDP...
    * Lots O'-data this week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Wonderful Weekend was enjoyed by your Pfennig writer, with good friends, and Chamber of Commerce weather, on a beautiful lake! It's back to work today though. I don't understand why I didn't plan on taking today and staying an additional day at that beautiful lake! Oh well... Time to go to work!

    When I signed off on Friday morning, the currencies were enjoying a very nice rally, which remained in place the rest of the day. The Consumer Income and Spending data was very much as I describe it would be, and so there was no surprise for the markets to deal with. You may recall, that I told you that Spending would be greater than Income, as the 'Cars for Clunkers' probably had something to do with the Spending be so much stronger than the Income piece......
  • China Is Back On The G-9 Docket...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion is strong once again...
    * Currencies get sold...
    * What's China really up to?
    * RBA to leave rates unchanged?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Some people have the day off today, so we'll probably not be back in full force until tomorrow... Not that we've been in full force, as a workforce in the U.S. for some time... But that's another story for another day! Today is a new day, and new week!

    Friday's thinned out markets were not what the currencies wanted to see, as the bias to Risk Aversion was magnified in the thinned out markets, only making the selling of the currencies even worse... Some 'levels' were hit in the thinned out markets, and that caused even more selling in the overnight markets as Japan and Asia came on board....