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  • Germany's Merkel gets her way...

    In This Issue..

    * Germany's Merkel gets her way...
    * Confidence in the US ebbs lower...
    * China to stick to renminbi policy...
    * Gold stops sliding...

    Good day, we had another strong day for the dollar yesterday, with the greenback gaining against all of the majors. But overnight, the Asians and then the Europeans sold the dollar and moved money back into the currencies. So after another rollercoaster ride, we are basically right back where we were at this time yesterday morning. These volatile markets are likely to continue, as investors try to figure out if the global economy will recover or if we will slide back into recession. With all of this uncertainty, you would think investors would be moving into 'hard assets': Gold and Silver. But the markets for these two precious metals have been surprisingly quiet this year. More on the metals a bit later, first I will try to figure out these currency markets....
  • "The Cheater" Speaks...

    * Currencies rally... * IFO unexpectedly rises... * Norway looks good... * Gold hits $900 again! ** The Cheater Speaks... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! We received the snow and ice they forecast, but the drive in to the office was no biggie, so the street crews did a fair job, I would say... We'll see when I head into the city for my radiation this morning... Hey! What a day for the currencies yesterday! Geez Louise, it's seems like it's been a month of Sundays since I could say that! And there's been follow up overnight, although, I do believe I'm seeing some profit taking right now... I went to radiation yesterday with the euro trading around 1.2965... I came back 2 hours later, and it was 1.31! And it didn't stop there, trading up to 1.3175, but running into a wall of resistance there... But that was temporary, as the overnight market pushed the single unit higher to 1.3250... It did trade all the way up to 1.33 and change on news that the German Business Confidence, as measured by the think tank IFO, unexpectedly rose for the first time in 8 months. This improvement was a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates......
  • Santa rally continues...

    * Santa rally continues... * Norway cuts 175 basis points... * Japanese intervention possible... * Indian rupee moves up... ** Santa rally continues... Good day... The dollar is falling much faster than it rose, the euro surged over 6 cents vs. US$ since yesterday at this time. The 5 day return chart for the major currencies vs. the US$ is pretty impressive: Swiss Franc +12.55%, Euro +9.5%, Danish Krone +9.44%, New Zealand $ +8.41%, Australian $ +5.08%, Swedish Krona +4.85%. And it continues. The past two weeks have been the most dramatic move by the dollar that I can remember. The dollar index, which tracks the US$ vs a group of major currencies is back trading right where it was at this time last year. I pulled a chart of year to date currency returns vs. the US$, and there are now 5 major currencies which have appreciated vs. the greenback: Yen +26.44%, Swiss + 8.07%, and Singapore, Danish Krone, & Euro + 1%. And with the recent big moves, our phones have been lighting up with investors moving back into currencies. I love the fact that all of these investors are diversifying, but the speed of this recent move demonstrates why we suggest keeping your investments spread across all asset classes. Trying to time into or out of a market can be frustrating, while keeping consistent asset allocations is the key....
  • Fannie and Freddie Back In The News...

    * Strange trading days... * U.K. Retail Sales surprise.... * Norway's GDP prints strong! * A CDO lesson... ** Fannie and Freddie Back In The News... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Don't know why... I just felt like it should be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I hit the wall yesterday, as I went home, and fell asleep at 3 o'clock, and didn't wake up till night time! Watched a few innings of my beloved Cardinals, wanted desperately to stay up and watch the May-Walsh beach volleyball game, but went right back to bed! So... I should be rested, eh? One would think so, but with the treatments I take, they just simply wipe me out! But... Hey! I always said that sleep was the greatest thing... I just get to enjoy more of it, right? OK... Another day of strange trading... As I signed off yesterday, the euro had given up it's previous day's gains, but found some terra firma at 1.47 and then rallied in the afternoon... If you guess right, as I have not done so this week, you can catch a great price to sell, and buy, all in the same day!...
  • "Somewhat Receded"?

    * Fed leaves rates unchanged... * A dovish tone to the Fed... * Dollar Bulls run for the hills! * Norway raises rates... ** "Somewhat Receded"? Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... If you are a non-dollar owner, you might want to quickly go to the currency round-up to check on your currency / currencies... The Fed left rates unchanged and were quite dovish in their statement, and the dollar has been sent to the woodshed... Welcome back! Front and Center this morning, we have a currency rally going on, with the euro leading the dogs off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. The single unit has pushed past the 1.57 handle this morning, and the high yielders of Aussie, kiwi, and Brazil are all dancing in the streets because their positive rate differentials are even more in the face of traders now....