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  • More Stimulus?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Friday...

    * And sell off today!

    * Jobs Jamboree is mixed news...

    * Aussies form new Gov't...

    ...
  • Counting Flowers On The Wall...

    In This Issue..

    * A non-movement day in currencies...
    * Euro gets hit again by Greek debt levels...
    * Asia is bellwether for global growth...
    * Gold rallies!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I hear that the "rains" are coming today, and will be around until next Tuesday! We'll be water logged, eh? I want to thank everyone who sent along the 'welcome back' notes yesterday. I need to make something clear... I'm not at the office... Not yet, they won't let me... So, I'm writing from home, and I have to pat myself on the back because I didn't complain one iota about writing from home yesterday! HA!

    Talk about counting flowers on the wall, playing solitaire till dawn with a deck of 51, and all those other things that fall under the category of being bored, and dull... That was the day in currencies yesterday......
  • US data fails to move the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * US data fails to move the markets...
    * EU split on Greek bailout...
    * Rogers is a seller of pounds...
    * Goldman says the renminbi is fairly valued...

    Good day... It is Friday and the end of what seems like a long week for yours truly. While I have enjoyed my time in Florida, I look forward to be able to sit down at my desk to write Monday morning instead of dealing with intermittent access to the internet and a slight lack of market information. You can get the data just fine on the road, but you miss out on the 'feel' of the markets when you aren't on the desk.

    But luckily for me, economic data is what ruled the markets yesterday. We had a plethora of data released in the US, but the markets seemed to be focused on the release of CPI and the weekly jobs numbers. CPI led off Thursday morning's data showing prices in the US were unchanged for the month in February from the .2% gains we saw at the start of the year. The core number was up .1% offsetting a .1% dip in January. The YOY (year on year)number showed a drop in the inflation rate to 2.2% from 2.7%. We all know how manipulated this data is, and our friends over at ShadowStats reported the non-seasonally adjusted number was actually just over 5%, which is certainly more realistic. But while this number is higher than the 'official' number, it showed a similar decline; diffusing a rumor which swirled around the markets yesterday afternoon.

    ...
  • China's GDP Soars 10.7%!

    In This Issue..

    * China has strong 4th QTR growth...
    * Time to let the renminbi gain VS the dollar...
    * Debt Ceiling is getting raised $1.9 Trillion...
    * Russian Central Bank is buying loonies...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Another day of dollar strength, in this switch from risk assets to dollar denominated assets... Again, I question the mental giants behind all this, for the U.S. is what caused this problem... And now traders turn to the U.S.???? Oh well, sure seems like it would be different if I were in charge! Of course, a LOT of things would be different if I were in charge! But that's a discussion for another day!

    Yesterday's Pfennig could set a record for the length, I think! So, I promise I won't go that long today!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the news overnight from China that their 4th QTR GDP accelerated to the fastest level since 2007... Chinese GDP for the 4th QTR was +10.7%!!!!! Talk about 'nailing' that call! The annual figure for China comes in at +8.7%, but in reality, who cares about the 1st QTR, when in the 4th and most recent quarter, growth was kicking tail and taking names later! In addition, China posted a higher consumer inflation figure than expected at +2%... And Retail Sales in China soared 16.9%! WOW!...
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

    In This Issue..

    * Comments spook currency traders...
    * A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
    * Geithner as the "joker"?
    * China changes statement about the renminbi...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

    That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

    So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......
  • The Trading Theme Returns...

    * U.S. data prints awful! * Eastern Europe gets 24.5 Billion euros! * More Problems for Citi... * Gold at a discount... ** The Trading Theme Returns... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to go out on a limb and say it will be a Fantastico Friday! I don't know why, it's cold and rainy here, and we're supposed to get snow tonight... But Shoot Rudy, why not? Every day is a blessing, and Friday's are special! At least in my book! Well... Chris left me a note last night about the day's happenings, as I was "out of touch" all day. So... I guess it would be best to let Chris give us the recap on yesterday, eh? Here's Chris... "The big news on the day was the durable goods orders, which came in even worse than expected. The dollar had lost ground vs. most of the currencies up until the durable goods number came in. The bad data for the US sent the dollar back up as investors headed back to the 'safe haven' of US Treasuries. Initial jobless claims also came in well above expectations with continuing claims climbing over 5 million for the first time ever. Continuing claims have only climbed above 4.5 million twice since the data has been recorded. They hit 4.6 million in May of 1975 and again in October of 1982. These peaks were very short lived as the came at the height of these two recessions. The problem with today's numbers is that we are still at the beginning stages of our recession and the jobs numbers look to only get worse....
  • A Retail Sales Surprise!

    * 623K new unemployment claims filed.. * G-7 begins today.. * Dealing from a position of strength.. * Valentine's Day tomorrow! ** A Retail Sales Surprise! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Front and center this morning, a Continental regional plane crashed near the Buffalo airport overnight, and all 48 on the plane were killed, along with 1 person in a home. Not Happy news for a Friday morning, for sure... Our thoughts should be with the familes of these people today... I want to say thank you to all who responded yesterday to me regarding my hissy fit I had yesterday morning regarding the minority objections to my opinions... The vote is in... It was a landslide in favor of me being me, and not what the few objectors want me to be. So, I will continue writing the Pfennig in the manner the majority expect... I don't want this to sound cold, but those that feel the need to send me nasty emails, could you please just unsubscribe instead?...
  • Jobs Jamboree / Horror Show!

    * 598K jobs lost in January... * Currencies rally with stocks... * G-7 this weekend... * More thoughts on Gold... ** Jobs Jamboree / Horror Show! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, Chris and I returned Saturday night and it was warmer in St. Louis than it was in Orlando Florida! Un-Be-Live-able! I know that it stayed warm there however, as opposed to here! The Money Show was good, not the best one or even close to the best one I've attended, but as I told Chris, I believe it was simply "a sign of the times"... Bad economic times that is! OK... Let's get this ball rolling, eh? The currencies had a nice rally on Friday, as the Jobs Jamboree turned out to be a horror show... But I don't think it was the Jobs Jamboree horror show that pushed the euro and other currencies higher. I think it was the stock market rally. Recall, last week, when I told you that the stocks and currencies had been trading side by side, which wasn't something we normally see, as they have different pricing mechanisms, and a low correlation to each other. But they were trading in tandem, and that carried through on Friday......
  • Talking Stimulus Deux

    * Pending Home Sales surprise! * Eurozone Retail Sales slump! * Tax cuts don't create jobs... * Failure to follow through for the A$ ** Talking Stimulus Deux... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... I'm here! The Orlando Money Show... And guess what? Looks like I brought that artic cold front that had hit St. Louis, all the way down to Orlando! It's cold here! UGH! Well, not "cold" like at home, but "cold" for here! OK... Front and center this morning, we had a stock rally yesterday after the Pending Home Sales data printed a surprise number. And since stocks and currencies have been trading together the past few days, (we talked at length about this yesterday) that meant a currency rally as well! But! Neither stocks or currencies could break on through to the other side, break on through, yeah! So... That left them vulnerable to profit taking, and that's exactly what we've seen with the currencies overnight. We'll have to wait a couple of hours to see how stocks open up......
  • Dollar bounces back up...

    * Dollar bounces back up... * Paulson heads back to congress... * BOJ cuts rates to below the US... * China to continue increasing the value of the Renminbi... ** Dollar bounces back up... Good day... The currencies took a breather overnight as the dollar bounced back up. When we left last night, the Euro was still holding above $1.42, but the single unit dropped 3 cents overnight and is now hovering around the $1.39 level. This move back down was to be expected, and serves as an excellent opportunity for investors who were afraid they had missed out on getting back into the currency market. I have searched the news wires this morning and can't find any good reasons for the dollar's turn around other than it had simply gone too far too fast. Mike Meyer and I were talking about this yesterday morning, as we were looking at the trading screens in amazement. The dollar's move down over the past two weeks was even faster than the move up earlier this year. Chuck had warned readers all during the dollar rally that the strength was only temporary, but the reversal was just too quick. This move back up is healthy for the markets, and will allow investors another opportunity to move back in....
  • The NBER Finally Says So!

    * RBA cuts 100 BPS... * It IS a recession! * Paulson to ruffle feathers? * Yen to rally hard? ** The NBER Finally Says So! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Quoting one of my all time fave Christmas songs, Baby, it's Cold Out There! Winter has arrived, and I had to drag out the big heavy winter coat this morning. So... The seasons pass us, which is a good thing, because without winter, we couldn't have spring, and spring training! OK... Right out of the starters blocks this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pulled the rug right out from under the "high yield status" of their economy, with another HUGE rate cut overnight... This time, the RBA cut 100 BPS, to an internal cash rate of 4.25%. This brings the total since September to 300 BPS! WOW! Talk about effectively unwinding seven years of tightening! The statement following the rate announcement leads me to believe that the RBA is probably finished cutting rates for now... It will be a wait-n-see what happens globally, before the RBA entertains any talk of further rate cuts... At least that's my opinion!...