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  • One In 5 Households Now On Food Stamps.

    In This Issue.

    * U.S. GDP disappoints.

    * Currencies & metals rally.

    * Kiwi gains VS dollars U.S & A$.

    * PIMCO likes Norwegian krone fundamentals..

    ...
  • RBA raises interest rates...

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  • The dollar holds on..

    In This Issue..

    * The Dollar holds on...
    * Pimco is buying Brazilian bonds...
    * Surprising data from the Economist...
    * Chuck's thoughts from Orlando...

    Good day... Chuck spent an extra day in Florida, so he stayed home to recuperate today. I made it home Saturday night, and was a bit shocked by all of the ice and snow which covered my truck at the airport. I heard so much about the winter storm which rocked the east coast that I forgot to check the weather here at home. I am a bit behind this morning, as I stayed up a bit celebrating the Saints victory with friends.

    The dollar bulls were celebrating again on Friday, as the dollar rally continued. The recent strength in the US$ will probably continue this week, as it looks like it will be fairly uneventful as far as data releases. We won't have any reports out in the US today, and tomorrow will only bring the wholesale inventory number. Wednesday we will see December's trade balance along with the monthly budget statement for January. Both of these numbers will likely reflect an ever-growing deficit here in the US, with a 50 billion dollar monthly budget deficit, and a trade deficit just below 35 billion....
  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday 01/08/2010...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar holds gains...
    * Japanese saber rattling...
    * Geithner in trouble?
    * Commercial Real Estate in trouble...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The first Friday of 2010! So, let's call it a Fabulous Friday, and save the Fantastico for a day when we'll see the temperature at least reach the freezing mark! Our 'snow day' is over, everyone was safe...

    You see, and I hope you don't mind me taking this trip in the past, many years ago, I spend a winter of discontent, I might add, in Des Moines, Iowa... Where it began snowing in November and didn't stop until the first week of May... When I first moved there, I noticed that their street crews didn't plow the roads, and salt them like they did in St. Louis, they just threw cinders on the snow and people drove on it. That's where I really learned to drive on snow... As the years went by, back in St. Louis, dealing with snow, I realized that the way they did it in Des Moines was better!...
  • Brazil To Benefit From New Carry Trade?

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar fights back...
    * Government deficit spending deep sixes us...
    * Brazilian rate hikes on the table...
    * Round Two of the PPT thoughts...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Well... It's not really Thunderin' outside, but it is snowing, with about 3-4 inches on the ground already, and the snow coming down so thick that seeing is difficult. I made it here, but then I drive a car that was made to go in stuff like this! Pretty soon, my phone will begin to ring, with colleagues calling to ask me how the roads were...

    Well... We had more probing higher in the non-dollar currencies only to see the gains wipe away at the end of the day yesterday. Still, as I told a radio audience in Oregon yesterday, traders, investors, etc. still believe the euro is worth more than the dollar by quite a bit... Gold also gave back some gains overnight......
  • Thin trading brings tight ranges...

    In This Issue..

    * Thin trading brings tight ranges...
    * Searching for the exits...
    * Mixed data in Europe...
    * Yen and Real make strange bedfellows...

    Good day...We had a pretty quiet 24 hours in the currency markets, with the majors all trading in a very narrow band vs. the US$. We will probably have a few more of these days during the next two weeks, as currency desks are manned by the backups and trading thins out. Many of the institutional investors will be moving to cash in order to preserve gains for their year end statements, and individual investors will have the holidays to take them away from the markets. Occasionally we will get a rogue piece of economic data which shoves the market one way or the other, but we typically won't see any long term positions being put on during the last two weeks of the year....
  • A Gusher Of Federal Money...

    In This Issue..

    * No currency movement to speak of...
    * Buffett calls out the deficits...
    * PIMCO does too!
    * SNB selling francs to stem gains....

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another day with the medicine in my knee and it feels better yet today... I did have to ice it last night though, I guess I'm still not out of the woods here, but I can see the exit!

    There was very little in the way of movement in the currencies yesterday. The euro moved to 1.4150, but was brought back down to the 1.41 handle overnight. Stocks rebounded yesterday, which gave a few risk takers the intestinal fortitude to dip their toes back into the risk assets water... But there just weren't enough of them to give the currencies the push they deserved to get....
  • US leading indicators push higher...

    In This Issue..

    * US leading indicators push higher...
    * Labor department admits errors...
    * Ben Bernanke heads to the hill...
    * PIMCO suggests buying emerging markets...

    Good day... A quiet trading day to start the week off yesterday. As I turn on the computers this morning the dollar index is trading right at the level it was yesterday morning. The currencies were up a bit through most of Monday's trading day, but the dollar came back in Asian trading leaving us right about back where we started.

    The only data released yesterday was the index of US leading indicators which rose slightly in June for a third consecutive month. The numbers gave a bit of hope for all of the bulls, with many exclaiming that the US economy has turned a corner and the recession has ended. I am not so sure, as rising unemployment and continued weakness in the housing market will likely hold any recovery back....
  • Housing stats show more rot on the housing vine....

    * US$ continues to be propped up... * SEK moves up vs. the US$... * Japanese yen falls.... * Gold prices come down ... ** Housing stats show more rot on the housing vine.... It has been a while since Chuck turned over the reigns of the Pfennig to me, so I'm a bit out of practice. But there was a lot of movement in the currency markets over the last 24 hours, giving me plenty of Pfennig fodder. I'll get right to it. The 'Safe Haven' status of the US$ continued to prop it up yesterday as bad housing data in the US scared investors. Sales of previously owned homes fell 5.3% in January, after rising slightly last month. And even worse for US homeowners, the median price of a home fell to $170,300, down nearly 26% from its peak in July 2006. These numbers reflect a worsening housing market which will weigh on the US economy through most of 2009. The inventory of unsold homes did fall, but still stands at 3.6 million. At the current rate of sales, it would take 9.6 months to exhaust the excess supply of homes. And this is assuming no more homes come into the market. The housing downturn will continue well into 2010, and will likely keep the US economy in the doldrums....