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RBA Raises Rates!

In This Issue..

* Pandora's Box of rate hikes is opened!
* Is the dollar being removed from oil trades?
* Deficits do matter, eh?
* Gold heads toward its all-time high...

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Tuesday morning that is seeing a HUGE currency rally VS the dollar on the news that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to go ahead and hike rates now, and not wait for November's meeting, as I had thought they would do! WOW!

The first hike... It has opened Pandora's Box of interest rate hikes around the world... For, if the RBA went this soon, then we can expect Norway's Norges Bank to push their rate hike earlier on the calendar, maybe even later this month! And they won't be the only ones! Look for New Zealand to hike rates this year, and who knows what other country (Brazil?) will follow after that... But I see them coming, and they're marching the death march of the dollar!...

Published 10-06-2009 9:22 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Silver, Gold, Interest Rates, Deficit, Reserve Bank of Australia, TARP

G-20 Heats Up...

In This Issue..

* Dollar's rally is cut short...
* Major problems for loans still exist...
* Yen rallies on exporter repatriation...
* Kiwi gets whacked!

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's still raining here in St. Louis this morning, but I won't that get me down, as it is a Friday! G-20 has gotten a bit ugly, folks... Seems everyone just can't seem to get along! Imagine that! 20 different countries, and now they want to be able to watch another country's finances and comment on them! Oh, I can see that working out real well! NOT!

So... Yesterday, we had the dollar gaining back the ground that it had lost the previous day, but at the end of the day, we're looking very much like the currencies hadn't moved from morning to morning... And overnight, didn't bring about much movement... So... When you get to the currency round-up below, you'll see the dollar's gains were small, and short-lived....

Published 09-25-2009 9:28 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Kiwi, Gold, New Zealand, Yen, Japan, Durable Goods, Swiss National Bank, G20, BRIC, Loans

More Strong Data Sinks The Dollar...

In This Issue..

* Currencies near 1-year levels...
* Canadian loonies are best performer!
* Dangling a carrot...
* Oil trades above $72...

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Why Tub Thumpin'? Why not? Besides, the non-dollar currencies are darn near where they were a year ago, having a good chunk of the ground they lost during the Financial Meltdown last fall and winter... Not that I'm a cheerleader, but more of a 'this is what I believed would happen, and glad to see a plan come together' kind of guy!

And since I, unlike throngs of people that like to point out errors, put my beliefs in writing every day... Right out there / here, in the open, for anyone to take pot shots at... But, I learned long ago that there will always be those that disagree, and not to let it upset or change the things I believe...

...

Published 09-17-2009 9:37 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Oil, Gold, Canada, Japan, Consumer Spending

A Rout On The Dollar!

In This Issue..

* Currencies rally strong!
* China is upset with printing of dollars...
* The UN talks of a new currency...
* Unemployment rate rises to 9.7%

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long Holiday Weekend, that was quite good for yours truly! A great tailgate, a great Missouri Tigers victory, 3 of 4 for the Cardinals, a great end of summer bar-b-que at the Butler House, and a day to recharge the batteries... Really couldn't ask for much more... Yes, the weather could have cooperated a bit better, but, hey, that's nitpicking!

Well... Last night I was checking the markets to see what was going on, since I had walked away from the desk on Friday afternoon... And much to my surprise, the currencies, led by the euro, seemed to be breaking out of their recent trading ranges. The euro was trading 1.4335, when I checked then... And when I turned on the currency screens here at the office this morning, the euro has stretched that move to the 1.4480 level! WOW! Looks to me as though the deficits that the dollar drags around are not looking to sharp to investors... But then, what took them so long to dump that fashion faux pas? Ahhh, grasshopper... As I've said many times before... The markets will do what they are supposed to do... Just not when... Which means, sometimes you have to wait... And wait... And think that they guy ranting each day in the Pfennig is barking up the wrong tree!...

Published 09-08-2009 9:35 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Trade Deficit, Dollar, Oil, China, Gold, Global Currency

Yet Another Jobs Jamboree Friday!

In This Issue..

* Currencies trade in a tight range...
* G-20 to shun an exit from stimulus?
* Gold and Silver and Oil... A new trend?
* Loonies follow the commodities higher...

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well... Once again, my day didn't turn out exactly as planned, but as they say... A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day and then you plug in the place... It could be work... It could be cutting the grass... Etc..

OK... I heard a great song on the radio this morning on my way to work... And I said to myself... Chuck, now that's a great song to start a day with, that everyone should hear each day! It's a song from the 60's (of course!), by the Rascals, called... It's a Beautiful Morning... Here's the first verse, and if you know the song, I'm sure you'll want to sing along, but if not... Look it up, I'm sure, you'll agree that it's a great way to start a day!

...

Published 09-04-2009 11:04 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Oil, Silver, Gold, Canada, Trichet, G20

Making The Fed Reserve Accountable!

In This Issue..

* Currencies sold overnight
* But rebound in early morning trading...
* China throws cold water on stock values...
* German exports rival the Big Kahuna!

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I returned home from San Francisco last night, and am back in the saddle today! Not the way I like to travel, where I get a day when returning home to recharge the batteries, but it is what it is... I did an interview with MarketWatch yesterday morning, talking about... Well, what else? The deficits, and diversification! My presentations in S.F. were well attended... On Saturday, my power point froze up, but I carried on in spite of the technical difficulties!

You know... I really, heard a lot of people talking about the rumor / conspiracy story that there will be a bank holiday at the end of the month (this weekend) and the Gov't will announce major changes to the currency... Now, before anyone begins to believe that I am on board with that rumor / conspiracy story, STOP! I am NOT! I've read all the theories, and I've heard all the information regarding this, but just do not understand why this would be done... So... I just wanted to throw it out there, and let you all know where I stand on this......

Published 08-25-2009 7:30 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Oil, China, Euro, Norwegian Krone, GDP, Germany, Budget Deficit

European orders support the Euro...

In This Issue..

* European orders increase more than expected...
* Was Cash for Clunkers necessary?...
* Roubini sees a 'W' not a 'V'...
* Lessons from Mary Poppins...

Good day... And welcome to another week, the last one in August! The weather here in St. Louis has shifted toward fall, which is my favorite season. Chuck is flying back home from San Francisco today and will be back in the saddle tomorrow. Both he and the big boss, Frank Trotter, sent me some great Pfennig pfodder over the weekend so lets get right to it.

The dollar continued to drift lower throughout the trading day on Friday, with the commodity currencies of Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand leading the way. Confidence is returning to the markets, and investors are once again moving out of the 'safe havens' of the Japanese yen and US dollar. The reports coming out of Jackson Hole indicate that central bankers believe chances for near-term growth appear good and recent data seem to support this conclusion....

Published 08-24-2009 10:06 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Oil, Home Sales, Euro, Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, Industrial Production, Nouriel Roubini, CARS Program

Stocks push the currencies higher...

In This Issue..

* Stocks push the currencies higher...
* Norway pulls out of recession...
* Jackson Hole boondoggle...
* Oil helps rally commodity currencies...

Good day... We had more rain here last night, but the storms have cooled things off and it is starting to feel a bit like fall around here. Chuck flies off to San Francisco today to speak at the Money Show, so I will be bringing you the Pfennig for the next few days. The dollar has rallied just a bit overnight, clawing back some of the losses which occurred mid morning yesterday.

And what, you might asked, caused the dollar to rally yesterday? You can re-read a bit of yesterday's Pfennig for the answer: 'The data cupboard has been emptied out and is looking to get restocked today... So the only thing besides sentiment moving the markets today will be the direction of stocks...' Yes, Chuck was right on in predicting what would drive the currency markets yesterday, as the dollar got sold off as stocks moved higher....

Published 08-20-2009 10:16 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Oil, Recession, Norway, GDP, Stocks, Debt, Jackson Hole

U. of Michigan Spoils The Party...

In This Issue..

* Risk Aversion comes back strong!
* Risk assets get sold...
* What games will be played with TIC's?
* 40 years since Woodstock!

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A great weekend that was filled with watching my little buddy, Alex, play football, hosting a surprise 30th birthday party for my little girl, Dawn, and a sweep of the Padres by the Cardinals! This week gets cut short with me a the helm, as I head to San Francisco on Thursday. Chris will have the conn on the Pfennig Thursday through Monday.

Well... Who'd a thunk it? Yes, who would have thought that the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence could turn the markets upside down and spoil the party? Well... It happened on Friday! The U. of Michigan Confidence Survey for Aug unexpectedly dropped to 63.2, from the previous month's 66 level. The real drop though was from the forecast for this month which was 69! The drop brought the index to a five-month low....

Published 08-17-2009 9:57 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Oil, China, Consumer Confidence, GDP, TIC Flow, Home Prices, Risk Aversion, University of Michigan

Frightened investors move back into US treasuries.....

In This Issue..

* Jobs data skewed by 'seasonal adjustments'...
* BOE surprises the market...
* Oil falls below $60...
* China's reserves continue to grow...

Good day...Chuck has a bevy of doctor's appointments today, so he decided to let me take over the Pfennig. Unfortunately it will go out a little later than usual, as I always struggle to get all of my thoughts together so early in the morning. Its not that I come in late (I was here two hours before everyone else) but it just takes me much longer than Chuck to get it all on paper. But enough of the excuses, I've got to get writing.

Weekly jobless claims released in the US yesterday morning fell below 600k for the first time since January but the continuing claims continue to rise, hitting another record. The slight improvement in the weekly numbers was distorted by the automotive sector. Car companies typically shut down plants in early July in order to change over to the new model year. Bankruptcy forced many of these plants to shut down much earlier than normal, and some temporarily started up production again during the past few weeks....

Published 07-10-2009 9:46 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Brazilian Real, Oil, Inflation, China, Consumer Confidence, Bank of England, Consumer Spending, Automotive Industry

Gold Vending Machines!

In This Issue..

* More range trading...
* SNB doesn't target the franc...
* Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
* Buy your gold and Snickers!

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....

Published 06-18-2009 9:59 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Brazilian Real, Oil, China, Gold, Euro, Norway, Germany, Swiss National Bank, Russia, Brazil

A Turn Around Tuesday!

In This Issue..

* Another Treasury auction today...
* Goldman says to buy euros!
* Oil fuels Commodity Currencies!
* RBNZ to meet tonight...

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday was 'Turn Around Tuesday'! Add to that, the fact that there were a number of reasons for the euro to lead the charge for currencies VS the dollar yesterday. And... A word from one of the economists that I keep on my list of 'to read'... So, let's get to the tape from Turn Around Tuesday!

I heard yesterday someone say 'well, we sure turned around today in the currencies'... And I thought, Shoot Rudy, why not name it Turn Around Tuesday? Then I went back to the history page on my trusty Bloomberg, and saw that on 4 of the last 5 Tuesdays, the currencies did in fact 'turn around' their performances from the day before! Not that this is something we can hand our hats on, and make trades accordingly on Monday nights / Tuesday mornings... But, it's an interesting fact nonetheless!...

Published 06-10-2009 9:27 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Oil, Gold, Euro, Consumer Confidence, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, TARP, Bank of America, Treasuries

Rising Treasury Yields...

In This Issue..

* Another Treasury auction today...
* Spending habits come back to haunt reps...
* Some healing in the currencies...
* 10 Banks to repay TARP today...

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I sure stirred up the hornet's nest yesterday... Some people didn't think I should express my opinion... But that's OK... Here's the skinny... I wrote yesterday about the farce that the jobs report was, and what a feeble job the media did in reporting the 'real numbers'... I then threw something in the Pfennig that I don't normally do, just to see what was more important to people... The fact that their Gov't lies to them, or the fact that they don't see eye-to-eye with me on the President...

Given the response, I'd say that most had their eye on the ball with the jobs farce... And that's all I'm going to say from here on out......

Published 06-09-2009 9:47 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Oil, China, Silver, Gold, G8, TARP, Budget Deficit, Treasuries

Who's Foolin' Who?

In This Issue..

* Jobs Jamboree gets a lift...
* The real numbers...
* The dollar comes back with vengeance!
* RBNZ to meet this week...

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! You know the Jobs Jamboree data that printed on Friday, and created some HUGE euphoria among the media types that love to just "read the news" and not actually do the research to report it? Yes... It was a very good number, on the outside... Not that losing 345,000 jobs in a month is a good thing, but it is far better than the near 700,000 jobs lost a couple of months ago.

So... I've got that to talk about today... And the rebound by the dollar that has taken the euro to the 1.38 handle and looking as if it is going to go lower... And, then finally, I have to get on my soapbox again, because I don't think I want my President calling me names! So, all that and more as we begin this 2nd week of June......

Published 06-08-2009 12:17 PM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Trade Deficit, Dollar, Oil, Euro, Retail Sales, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Budget Deficit

Russian Rumors...

In This Issue..

* dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
* Emerging Markets decouple...
* A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
* Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....

Published 05-28-2009 9:40 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Euro, New Zealand, Swiss franc, Canada, Swiss National Bank, Emerging Markets, Treasuries

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