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  • Russian Rumors...

    In This Issue..

    * dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
    * Emerging Markets decouple...
    * A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
    * Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

    Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....
  • A building block...

    * A quiet Friday... * Euro hits 1.30... * Chinese concern... * This week in data... ** A building block... Good day...And a Marvelous Monday to you. Its hard to believe that Monday morning is already upon us, where does the time go? Just as the currency market took a breather, our cold weather from last week decided to follow suit as it turned out to be a nice late winter weekend. Friday was fairly uneventful as the currencies traded in a tight range throughout the course of the day so it will be interesting to see how this week shapes up. Let's see if the currencies can build from last week...

    Volatility was basically non-existent during Friday trading with less than a .50% difference between the high and the low of the dollar index. The overall bias, however, was a weaker dollar and the euro held onto 1.29 for a majority of the day and was near 1.2920 as I left the desk. The pound and Swiss franc were the only two currencies left on the bench last week with losses of about 1% and 2.5% against the dollar respectively. The rest were able to turn in a decent week with the Swedish krona on top of the pile posting a 6.5% gain....
  • Maybe It's Time For A Change?

    * Currencies continue to rally... * More Stimulus... * Data shows more rot on the vine... * A Thanksgiving thought... **Maybe It's Time For A Change? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The day before Thanksgiving... Tonight is, historically, the biggest "going out" night for the younger crowd, as they all return home from college, etc. Not for yours truly though... A little reminder that Friday I will not be writing... Friday night, a large group of friends and family are starting the holiday season off with a gathering at the Butler House, before all heading to see the Trans Siberian Orchestra's Holiday Concert... I'm getting pumped up for that! OK... Another rally day in the currencies yesterday... One that wasn't as pronounced as Monday's 3-cent rally... But a rally just the same, and at one point, the euro was trading above 1.30... Hadn't seen that level in a while, so welcome back to the 1.30 level, Mr. euro... ...
  • Financial storms claim two more...

    * Financial storms claim two more victims... * Yen and Swiss Francs move back up... * Euro approaches 1.45 before reversing course... * Oil below $100... ** Financial storms claim two more... Good day... The financial storm claimed another victim this weekend as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy after being unable to find a buyer. Bank of America, who was rumored to be bidding on Lehman ended up buying Merrill Lynch & Co and AIG Inc. is asking the fed for an emergency loan. All of this financial turmoil has sent the dollar lower vs. most of the major currencies as investors are beginning to realize the situation in the US markets is worse than the rest of the world. Over the past three months, currency traders have rallied the dollar on the basis that the US was in better shape than Europe. They will now need to rethink their strategies, as the past few weekends show just how bad the US financial sector is ailing. And unfortunately, their will likely be more to come. Risk aversion is a popular theme in the markets again, and the purchase of US treasuries actually helped to keep the US$ from falling further....
  • Oil Price Slides!

    * Big Ben in a predicament! * The euro retreats after new high... * Retail Sales disappoint! * Yen and francs on the menus again! ** Oil Price Slides! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! 3 straight days without rain here in St. Louis! WOW! It did however, rain on the currencies' parade yesterday. About mid-morning, the brakes were applied to the run on the dollar, and the car was put into reverse. Retail Sales disappointed, and PPI is not anything to laugh about... All that and more, as we head into the day after a 15-inning All-Star Game! Front and Center though is the good cop, bad cop thing that played out with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (bad cop) and SEC Chairman Cox (good cop)... Big Ben sent the dollar packing in the morning with his statement that highlighted the Fed's predicament... Big Ben noted the parts of financial markets remained seriously disrupted (which screams, no rate hike), but that dollar weakness had helped cause inflation to rise (Here he goes again trying to blame everyone else for the Fed's creation and feeding of inflation... Oh well, this statement screams, no rate cut!). The currencies all took turns taking a swing at the piñata (dollar)... And... It looked like the volcano was about to blow... Oh, I don't know, I don't know, I don't know where I'm a going to go when the volcano blows! (Ahhh, a little Jimmy Buffett on a Wonderful Wednesday!)...
  • A Reality Check!

    * Too Little... Too Late! * Yen hits a 13-year high! * Swissie nears parity! * Australia keeps creating jobs!...