Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • U.S. Trade Deficit Widens...

    In This Issue..

    * A back-n-forth day in currencies...
    * Canada slips into deficit in trade...
    * Waiting on Aussie jobs data...
    * A story in Business Week, you'll want to read...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The 'January Thaw' continues... Hopefully, in time to save the orange trees in Florida! That's all we need right now is to see food prices ratcheting even higher than they already have gone... NOT!

    HEY! Good morning to you! I've had a very typical morning, with no surprises, no scavenger hunts for anything, didn't have to stop on my way in for anything, so, I was feeling pretty good, until I got here, and saw the price of Oil...

    The price of Oil has dropped from $83.18 a week ago, to $79.80 this morning... Why did this spoil my day? Well, like Lloyd Bridges in the Airplane movie, I must have picked a bad day to fill my gas tank, the other day, when Oil was so high!

    ...
  • G-20 Heats Up...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar's rally is cut short...
    * Major problems for loans still exist...
    * Yen rallies on exporter repatriation...
    * Kiwi gets whacked!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's still raining here in St. Louis this morning, but I won't that get me down, as it is a Friday! G-20 has gotten a bit ugly, folks... Seems everyone just can't seem to get along! Imagine that! 20 different countries, and now they want to be able to watch another country's finances and comment on them! Oh, I can see that working out real well! NOT!

    So... Yesterday, we had the dollar gaining back the ground that it had lost the previous day, but at the end of the day, we're looking very much like the currencies hadn't moved from morning to morning... And overnight, didn't bring about much movement... So... When you get to the currency round-up below, you'll see the dollar's gains were small, and short-lived....
  • Russian Rumors...

    In This Issue..

    * dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
    * Emerging Markets decouple...
    * A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
    * Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

    Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * RBA cuts 25 BPS...
    * Eurozone recession deepens...
    * Oil backs off...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! OK... I'll get to Opening Day in the Big Finish today, first, and foremost, I need to tell you about a guy that really threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, causing a BIG scare and sell off of risk assets... Currencies that is...

    His name is Mike Mayo, and he used to work at Deutsche Bank, and now is a banking analyst at Caylon Securities... And brother can he ever move a market! To make a long story short... Mr. Mayo basically said yesterday in a report that 'Bank Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels'... So, all that James Brown, feeling good, that went on last week with the G-20 singing everything is beautiful, all went down the drain after Mr. Mayo spoke......
  • Who Owes Who?

    * Trading theme pushes yen higher... * Settlement day for Lehman CDO's... * Oil price fall hurts loonies... * Gold climbs back above $900... ** Who Owes Who? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It certainly doesn't look as though it will be a Fantastico Friday in stocks, as yesterday was a bloodletting, and overnight the Japanese stock market sold off 11%, and Europe is down about 9% at this point. UGH! This is getting quite ugly... But remember what I've been saying this week about the currency trading theme... When things look bleak, the dollar goes up... And when it looks as though all the stimulus might work, the dollar sells off... This has been quite evident in Japanese yen overnight, as stocks sold off 11%, the currency rallied to a 98 handle from 101 yesterday... And... Then in dollar trading, other than yen, the dollar is stronger this morning, pushing the euro back to the 1.35 handle. The high yielders, which enjoyed a day in the sun yesterday before U.S. stocks took a turn on the slippery slope, got whacked hard overnight! UGH!...
  • US$ saved by oil...

    * US$ saved by oil... * US Recession? (not according to Paulson)... * New Zealand worst performer in July... * Big Mac Index says buy Asia... ** US$ saved by oil... Good day...And welcome to August. The markets had a little more movement yesterday as the US GDP report came in lower than expected, and had a hidden surprise for dollar bears (more on that later). In addition to the poor GDP numbers, Personal consumption dropped and the GDP Price Index also showed a decrease. The employment cost index was flat, and the weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 448k. More Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week than at any time in more than five years. The only positive piece of data released in the US yesterday was the volatile (and somewhat unreliable) Chicago Purchasing Managers number which showed an increase back above 50. With all the bad data, the dollar sold off rather sharply and the Euro jumped a full cent to trade over 1.57 for a short while. But the dollar bears didn't celebrate for long, as the dollar sharply reversed course as crude oil prices rode to its rescue. As I explained earlier in the week, the price of crude oil and the US$ have had a very tight relationship lately, with a correlation of .9. Just after the dollar fell due to the GDP releases, crude oil began a sharp $3 drop and saved the US$ from further losses. The price of oil has continued to slide, and is now down over 11% in the past month. This has helped prop the dollar up in spite of a number of poor economic reports here in the US....
  • RBNZ Cuts Rates...

    * The dollar swings it mighty hammer! * Weekly Jobless Claims spike! * Exposing the debt in N.Z.... * The Fed's Beige Book is grim... ** RBNZ Cuts Rates... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's not so Thunderin' for me this morning, as I must have eaten something that didn't agree with me last night... Therefore I was up most the night sick... This will be ever so short-n-sweet, and then I'm going back to bed, I've got a presentation this afternoon with Addison Wiggin, I've got to be in tip-top shape for that! The dollar swung its mighty hammer again yesterday, bringing the euro to the 1.56 handle, with all the other usual suspects falling in line behind the euro. The markets are ga-ga with news that leads them to believe the "worst is over" in the credit crunch... I beg to differ on that, but then, I'm just one guy, one voice, one letter......
  • Taking On Risk Again!

    * Mexico's rate goes higher! * A 100 Billion dollar note? * Euro rates to go higher? * Oil's sell off might be short-lived... ** Taking On Risk Again! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! All my bags are packed, I'm ready to go, the taxi's waiting, he's blowing his horn... Yes, I'm off to Vancouver this morning... This becomes a labor of love for me especially today, with Chris taking off the same week I'm in Vancouver, I'm writing the Pfennig on my way to the airport! Graham Nash wrote a song about that... But I won't go there after the intro! Oh, what the heck! Just a song before I go... This will be short-n-sweet this morning, as I've got to get to the airport! Friday, saw the currencies range bound once again, as the data cupboard was empty. And... We didn't have any major losses print, or we didn't have any news at all about all the rot on the U.S. economy's vine. The Biggest mover was... Drum roll please... The Mexican peso! Yes, the Mexican peso outperformed all other currencies last week, reaching a 5-year high VS the dollar after the Mexican Central Bank raised interest rates 1/4% (25 BPS) to 8%, pushing the peso to its highest level VS the dollar since 2003!...