Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • Up Comes A Bubbling Crude.

    In This Issue.

    * The can was full of pork.

    * Dollar continues to get sold.

    * Chinese GDP grows at 7.8%! .

    * A HUGE oil discovery in Australia! .

    ...
  • 2nd QTR GDP Today...

    In This Issue..

    * A flat trading day in currencies...

    * 473,000 newly unemployed last week...

    * Kan ready to take "bold action"...

    * Ludwig von Mises on a Friday!

    ...
  • China Is Number 2!

    In This Issue..

    * Retail Sales Are Soft...

    * TIC data today...

    * A$ hangs on to 89...

    * Gold adds another $6...

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    ...
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday – 6/4/2010

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets beaten down again...
    * Why should we do anything now?
    * Brazil keeping inflation away...
    * ADP says 55,000 jobs created in May...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I suspect this will end up being a Fantastico Friday, but right now, not so much... Today is the Big Jobs Jamboree, and the cable news stations are spinning it quite nicely. So nicely put that stock jockeys are believing the spin and running stock futures higher. I've got that to talk about today, and more debt stuff... Believe me dear reader, I wish I didn't have to talk about this debt stuff, but I feel as though me and a few of my friends are the only ones doing so, and I don't want you to become like the rest of the country and become 'comfortably numb' with the deficit figures!...
  • Let's Talk Deficits...

    In This Issue..

    * A$, kiwi, and C$'s outperform...
    * Yen gets what is deserved!
    * Deficit to reach 100% of GDP?
    * Don't they work for us?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It has been Thunderin' here most of the night, so it was quite fitting to call our Thursday, Thunderin'! It's been a week of pop-up Thunder Showers for us here in the Midwest... If summer plays out the way most summers play out, we'll be pining for rain come August!

    The Japanese have a new Prime Minister (Kan), and the currency markets don't like it! The once so-called 'safe haven' of yen, is getting sand kicked in its face, and rightly so, as the new PM has previously stated his goal of a weaker yen...

    ...
  • Making The Fed Reserve Accountable!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies sold overnight
    * But rebound in early morning trading...
    * China throws cold water on stock values...
    * German exports rival the Big Kahuna!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I returned home from San Francisco last night, and am back in the saddle today! Not the way I like to travel, where I get a day when returning home to recharge the batteries, but it is what it is... I did an interview with MarketWatch yesterday morning, talking about... Well, what else? The deficits, and diversification! My presentations in S.F. were well attended... On Saturday, my power point froze up, but I carried on in spite of the technical difficulties!

    You know... I really, heard a lot of people talking about the rumor / conspiracy story that there will be a bank holiday at the end of the month (this weekend) and the Gov't will announce major changes to the currency... Now, before anyone begins to believe that I am on board with that rumor / conspiracy story, STOP! I am NOT! I've read all the theories, and I've heard all the information regarding this, but just do not understand why this would be done... So... I just wanted to throw it out there, and let you all know where I stand on this......
  • Stocks push the currencies higher...

    In This Issue..

    * Stocks push the currencies higher...
    * Norway pulls out of recession...
    * Jackson Hole boondoggle...
    * Oil helps rally commodity currencies...

    Good day... We had more rain here last night, but the storms have cooled things off and it is starting to feel a bit like fall around here. Chuck flies off to San Francisco today to speak at the Money Show, so I will be bringing you the Pfennig for the next few days. The dollar has rallied just a bit overnight, clawing back some of the losses which occurred mid morning yesterday.

    And what, you might asked, caused the dollar to rally yesterday? You can re-read a bit of yesterday's Pfennig for the answer: 'The data cupboard has been emptied out and is looking to get restocked today... So the only thing besides sentiment moving the markets today will be the direction of stocks...' Yes, Chuck was right on in predicting what would drive the currency markets yesterday, as the dollar got sold off as stocks moved higher....
  • U. of Michigan Spoils The Party...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion comes back strong!
    * Risk assets get sold...
    * What games will be played with TIC's?
    * 40 years since Woodstock!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A great weekend that was filled with watching my little buddy, Alex, play football, hosting a surprise 30th birthday party for my little girl, Dawn, and a sweep of the Padres by the Cardinals! This week gets cut short with me a the helm, as I head to San Francisco on Thursday. Chris will have the conn on the Pfennig Thursday through Monday.

    Well... Who'd a thunk it? Yes, who would have thought that the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence could turn the markets upside down and spoil the party? Well... It happened on Friday! The U. of Michigan Confidence Survey for Aug unexpectedly dropped to 63.2, from the previous month's 66 level. The real drop though was from the forecast for this month which was 69! The drop brought the index to a five-month low....
  • A shrinking US economy puts pressure on the US$...

    In This Issue..

    * US GDP falls more than expected...
    * FOMC holds course...
    * Canadian dollar has a great week...
    * Oil helps commodity currencies...

    Good day... Yesterday was a big day in St. Louis as President Obama came to visit on his 100th day in office. I can't believe it has been 100 days since the inauguration. Time sure does fly! I'm sure Obama and the rest of his administration would like the calendar to move even faster as this recession will likely last through the end of 2009. While the government has thrown trillions of dollars at the markets in an attempt to turn them around, the key ingredient for recessionary cycles to reverse is time. There is now 'quick fix' for the problems we are in, and the policies the administration has begun will take time to have an impact on our shrinking economy. Obama said as much in his nationally televised press conference last night....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * RBA cuts 25 BPS...
    * Eurozone recession deepens...
    * Oil backs off...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! OK... I'll get to Opening Day in the Big Finish today, first, and foremost, I need to tell you about a guy that really threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, causing a BIG scare and sell off of risk assets... Currencies that is...

    His name is Mike Mayo, and he used to work at Deutsche Bank, and now is a banking analyst at Caylon Securities... And brother can he ever move a market! To make a long story short... Mr. Mayo basically said yesterday in a report that 'Bank Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels'... So, all that James Brown, feeling good, that went on last week with the G-20 singing everything is beautiful, all went down the drain after Mr. Mayo spoke......
  • Euro Rally Fizzles Out...

    * Yen continues to kick! * Jim Rogers disses sterling... * China's 4th QTR GDP... * Singapore announces stimulus... ** Euro Rally Fizzles Out... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! A nasty day in the currencies yesterday, except Japan of course. The Dow jumped 290 points yesterday, maybe an Obama bounce? You all know that I subscribe to an Obama bounce for stocks and the dollar in the first part of this year... But given what I know about, and what you now know about, after I drew it all out yesterday, the additions to the deficit that Obama will make, the focus on the fundamentals should return by late spring, early summer... That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! Well... As I said in the opening, the currencies led by the Big Dog, euro, suffered through a nasty trading day, with the euro touching below 1.29 for a good part of the day. The risk takers are nowhere to be found. Where have all the risk takers gone... Long time passing... A Reuters reporter asked me yesterday if I was still of the opinion that the yen had more to rally or was it overbought? I said, that as long as the risk takers are nowhere to be found, yen should continue on its path higher VS the dollar, euro and sterling. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for yen, shows that it is a tad overbought, but that's not enough to change my mind. Nor is it enough to change the mind of a currency trader at the Bank of New York (BONY), who believes yen may rise to 85 VS the dollar by midyear... Another currency trader at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) believes the Bank of Japan will step in and intervene to stem the yen's rise.......
  • The Obama Bounce Begins...

    * The dollar bounces! * ISM was simply awful! * Oil rallies... * Jobs Jamboree this Friday... ** The Obama Bounce Begins... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend of football! And there's more this week with the College National Championship Game on Thursday, and then more playoff games next weekend. Crazy time of year for the sport, for sure! So... The Christmas Tree decorations came off yesterday, along with some of the house decorations. My beautiful bride doesn't like to leave that stuff up for long, but for me, I would leave it up all year long! Well... Although, technically, it's still the Christmas season (it doesn't end until Jan. 11), the Santa rally that pushed the euro to 1.45, has gone away, and we're on to the next phase, which I drew out for you over a week ago... And that is... The Obama bounce... This is something we'll have to deal with for the next few months. It all began with a huge stock rally on Friday, and that won't be the last one during the Obama bounce....
  • Maybe It's Time For A Change?

    * Currencies continue to rally... * More Stimulus... * Data shows more rot on the vine... * A Thanksgiving thought... **Maybe It's Time For A Change? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The day before Thanksgiving... Tonight is, historically, the biggest "going out" night for the younger crowd, as they all return home from college, etc. Not for yours truly though... A little reminder that Friday I will not be writing... Friday night, a large group of friends and family are starting the holiday season off with a gathering at the Butler House, before all heading to see the Trans Siberian Orchestra's Holiday Concert... I'm getting pumped up for that! OK... Another rally day in the currencies yesterday... One that wasn't as pronounced as Monday's 3-cent rally... But a rally just the same, and at one point, the euro was trading above 1.30... Hadn't seen that level in a while, so welcome back to the 1.30 level, Mr. euro... ...
  • Data shows just how bad things are...

    * Data shows just how bad things are... * Trade deficits narrow... * EU confirms they are in a recession... * RBA intervening again... ** Data shows just how bad things are... Good day... Chuck asked me to go ahead and write the Pfennig this morning, but I got a late start, so this one will be short. We finally had some data releases here in the US which look to steer the markets, so I'll just get right to it. The dollar continued to strengthen yesterday after another round of bad weekly employment figures. Initial jobless claims increased to 516k during the first week of November, and last weeks numbers were revised up to 484k. The employment picture continues to darken here in the US, and it doesn't look like it will improve any time soon. This is just what the US consumers don't need right now. Not only are most consumers living paycheck to paycheck, but now many of those paychecks are being ripped out of their hands....
  • An Aussie Rate Cut!

    * Dollar rally continues... * Eurozone data prints weak... * Oil sees a HUGE drop! * WAKE UP, China! ** An Aussie Rate Cut! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm shaking my head this morning and wondering what its going to take to get this dollar rally stopped before it gets out of hand, and the exports get killed once again. And if the exports get killed, the Current Account Deficit begins to swell again, and so on and so on. This dollar strength is not good for our economy at this stage, but that's what we have, and I'm wondering who wrote the book of love! I recall the last time we saw the dollar smokin' hot like this, 2005... I sure hope the nasty emails to me don't start again... You should have seen some of these emails, they would embarrass a sailor! OK, that's just a saying, I'm not picking on sailors! You have to say these disclaimers or else there will be someone that gets upset and fires off a nasty email. What's happened in society that email has allowed people to say things they would never say to someone's face? It's brought out the Mr. Hyde in people, for sure!...