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  • Frightened investors move back into US treasuries.....

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs data skewed by 'seasonal adjustments'...
    * BOE surprises the market...
    * Oil falls below $60...
    * China's reserves continue to grow...

    Good day...Chuck has a bevy of doctor's appointments today, so he decided to let me take over the Pfennig. Unfortunately it will go out a little later than usual, as I always struggle to get all of my thoughts together so early in the morning. Its not that I come in late (I was here two hours before everyone else) but it just takes me much longer than Chuck to get it all on paper. But enough of the excuses, I've got to get writing.

    Weekly jobless claims released in the US yesterday morning fell below 600k for the first time since January but the continuing claims continue to rise, hitting another record. The slight improvement in the weekly numbers was distorted by the automotive sector. Car companies typically shut down plants in early July in order to change over to the new model year. Bankruptcy forced many of these plants to shut down much earlier than normal, and some temporarily started up production again during the past few weeks....
  • Trillion Dollar Deficits For Years To Come...

    * CBO forecasts $1.2 Trillion Budget deficit! * And we can expect more! * ADP shows job losses mounting big time! * Brazil's real reverses course... ** Trillion Dollar Deficits For Years To Come... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I had not realized it was Thursday until I began writing this morning! I had been buying breakfast sandwiches for the trading desk on Thursdays, and I'm sure a few people will be wondering what happened when there are no sandwiches this morning... I simply lost track of the days! UGH! Well... There are two major things on the docket for the front and center piece today, both tell us a lot, but I think I'm going to go with the announcement of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) yesterday afternoon as the lead story, and the ADP jobs report as the second story... So, let's go to the tape!...
  • Fed not as hawkish as expected...

    * Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....
  • Taking On Risk Again!

    * Mexico's rate goes higher! * A 100 Billion dollar note? * Euro rates to go higher? * Oil's sell off might be short-lived... ** Taking On Risk Again! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! All my bags are packed, I'm ready to go, the taxi's waiting, he's blowing his horn... Yes, I'm off to Vancouver this morning... This becomes a labor of love for me especially today, with Chris taking off the same week I'm in Vancouver, I'm writing the Pfennig on my way to the airport! Graham Nash wrote a song about that... But I won't go there after the intro! Oh, what the heck! Just a song before I go... This will be short-n-sweet this morning, as I've got to get to the airport! Friday, saw the currencies range bound once again, as the data cupboard was empty. And... We didn't have any major losses print, or we didn't have any news at all about all the rot on the U.S. economy's vine. The Biggest mover was... Drum roll please... The Mexican peso! Yes, the Mexican peso outperformed all other currencies last week, reaching a 5-year high VS the dollar after the Mexican Central Bank raised interest rates 1/4% (25 BPS) to 8%, pushing the peso to its highest level VS the dollar since 2003!...
  • The Yen Is Back!

    * The dollar stumbles... * BOE & ECB leave rates unchanged... * Trade Deficit to "narrow"? * Another record level for oil!...
  • ECB and BOE Leave Rates Unchanged...

    * ECB and BOE leave rates unchanged... * Data not nice to US$... * NZD also leaves rates alone... * Oil hits a record......