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  • The US is turning Japanese ? ? ?

    In This Issue.

    * Turning Japanese ????

    * Mike Meyer vs. WSJ - who is right?

    * New Zealand keeps rates unchanged

    * Dimon gets grilled on Capitol Hill

    ...
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Streets!

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies reverse gains from this week.

    * Gold, dollars and renminbi rally.

    * German Retail Sales plunge!

    * New Zealand gets downgraded.

    ...
  • Ben sets the tone...

    In This Issue.

    * The market isn't a fan of QE.

    * The euro rode the wave.

    * BOE meets today.

    * Double dip in New Zealand?

    ...
  • EU reaches an agreement (again)...

    In This Issue...

    * Jobs data is massaged...
    * EU reaches an agreement (again)...
    * Ben warns Congress we are in a 'dark place'...
    * Report shows strong growth in New Zealand...

    Good day, and happy Friday to everyone. The end of another week minus Chuck who will be back in the saddle in a few more days. Chuck is working down in Florida today, giving a presentation at an investment conference. The dollar went on another amusement ride over the past 24 hours, appreciating during the US trading day and then falling back down overnight. It has settled in right about where it was this time yesterday morning with a few exceptions....
  • Germany's Merkel gets her way...

    In This Issue..

    * Germany's Merkel gets her way...
    * Confidence in the US ebbs lower...
    * China to stick to renminbi policy...
    * Gold stops sliding...

    Good day, we had another strong day for the dollar yesterday, with the greenback gaining against all of the majors. But overnight, the Asians and then the Europeans sold the dollar and moved money back into the currencies. So after another rollercoaster ride, we are basically right back where we were at this time yesterday morning. These volatile markets are likely to continue, as investors try to figure out if the global economy will recover or if we will slide back into recession. With all of this uncertainty, you would think investors would be moving into 'hard assets': Gold and Silver. But the markets for these two precious metals have been surprisingly quiet this year. More on the metals a bit later, first I will try to figure out these currency markets....
  • Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...
    * Decision on Norwegian interest rates...
    * Canadian dollar rises...
    * Kiwi to outpace Australian dollar...

    Good day, the dollar gained ground across the board as the news hit that the IMF will be brought in to help rescue Greece. The dollar was also helped by data which showed existing housing sales fell by less than expected in February. We will get additional news on the status of the US economy today, with the release of durable goods and new home sales numbers for February. We will get a rate decision by the Norwegian central bank today, which could stoke calls for higher rates here in the US. But the big news overnight is concerning the euro (again!).

    The euro sold off by a full percentage point vs. the US$ after both Germany and France are reported to have agreed to have the IMF involved in aid to Greece. This is an about face for European leaders who announced last week that they had agreed on a European solution to the Greek crisis. But Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel threw a spanner in the works a week ago when she said Germany would not participate in giving Greece financial aid. This threw the euro into crisis mode again, as the 'agreement' reached early last week never materialized....
  • Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'....

    In This Issue..

    * Traders fear Chinese 'bubbles'...
    * Bollard leaves rates unchanged... ...
    * Aussie dollar rallies...
    * Pound sterling rallies, but it can't last...

    Good morning, Chuck headed out the door with a huge smile on his face yesterday as he heads down to spring training. With Chuck down in Florida, he handed the keyboard over to me for the rest of March. I am excited to be able to bring you the Pfennig over the next few weeks, and appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts on the currency markets with all the loyal readers. For those of you who are new to the Pfennig, I have been told my style is a bit more 'dry' than Chuck's (I can't even come close to his encyclopedic knowledge of lyrics); and I typically get the Pfennig sent out a bit later than Chuck. But I will try my best to keep everyone informed and get this out in a timely manner. Lets get started....
  • German Investor Confidence Declines...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk makes a comeback... At least today!
    * ZEW / German Confidence slips 5th consecutive month...
    * Something scary at the Treasury auction...
    * Popping the ego bubble...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thanks to all who sent along their thanks for my Valentine's Day Special Pfennig... It's not what I wanted to send you, but what I had to do, to properly inform you of what's going on... You know, I've been accused by more than a few people over the years as being a cheerleader for the currencies, and doing nothing but reporting bad news for the dollar to promote the currency business here at EverBank.

    You know... If all I ever report is bad news, then maybe that's all there is! But... I've fought those things for years, and this is but one more time, that I've warned about something regarding currency values......
  • U.S. Trade Deficit Widens...

    In This Issue..

    * A back-n-forth day in currencies...
    * Canada slips into deficit in trade...
    * Waiting on Aussie jobs data...
    * A story in Business Week, you'll want to read...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The 'January Thaw' continues... Hopefully, in time to save the orange trees in Florida! That's all we need right now is to see food prices ratcheting even higher than they already have gone... NOT!

    HEY! Good morning to you! I've had a very typical morning, with no surprises, no scavenger hunts for anything, didn't have to stop on my way in for anything, so, I was feeling pretty good, until I got here, and saw the price of Oil...

    The price of Oil has dropped from $83.18 a week ago, to $79.80 this morning... Why did this spoil my day? Well, like Lloyd Bridges in the Airplane movie, I must have picked a bad day to fill my gas tank, the other day, when Oil was so high!

    ...
  • Roll call on the desk...

    In This Issue..

    * Roll call on the desk...
    * Markets believe US rates will move higher...
    * Loonie books a gain...
    * AUD$ backs off...

    Good day... The Pfennig inbox was filled with nice notes regarding the Christmas card we sent out yesterday. I want to thank Nicki Storm for taking the picture and creating the card and TJ Wolf for helping to get it sent out. Several of you asked for names to go with the faces, so I will list the names as we appear on the card. The great looking ladies from left to right are Jennifer McLean, Christine Peplow, and Kristin Kuchem. The men from left to right are as follows: Mike Meyer, Ty Keough, Aaron Stevenson, Tim Smith, Chuck Butler, Chris Gaffney, Don Ries, & John Kretchmar. Now you will be able to have a face to put with the voice on the other end of the line when calling the trading desk....
  • Treasury Issuance Hits Record Amounts!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day... Kind of...
    * Gold hits $1,171!
    * Germany's IFO hits a 15-month high!
    * Even the NY Times talks about deficit spending!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A Risk 'kind of' On Day... Which I believe will be difficult to hold on to as we draw closer to Thursday. The volume will dry up, like I said yesterday like using a Sham Wow (Vince where are you?) and... There will be all kinds of position squaring ahead of Thursday, for many traders, including yours truly, will be making this a 4-day holiday weekend, and good traders do NOT leave themselves out on a line with open trades before leaving for 4 days!...
  • Carry Trade reversals rally dollar / yen

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trade reversal boosts the dollar/yen...
    * STL Fed Head Bullard sends mixed signals...
    * Audit of Fed in jeopardy...
    * Kiwi and AUD fall...

    Good day... And a Thunderin Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues today, but I hear it is supposed to stop this afternoon. Fear of risk rained on the currency investors' parade as an equity market sell-off fueled a US dollar and Japanese yen rally. At times it looks as if we will break this pattern of markets up dollar down/ markets down dollar up, but it seems investors continue to return to the US$ and Japanese yen as soon as they become worried about equity market returns....
  • Risk Aversion Creeps Back Into The Currencies...

    In This Issue..

    * Comments spook currency traders...
    * A$ hits 15-month high, this time going up!
    * Geithner as the "joker"?
    * China changes statement about the renminbi...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a Thursday, and it's not raining here! YAHOO! After a week of Indian Summer weather, we're slowly creeping back to the colder weather, but still, better than most Novembers of the past, so far!

    That was a strange feeling yesterday, having a holiday in the middle of the week, but the day was nice, and I got to spend the day with my granddaughter, Delaney Grace, who sang me songs all day long!

    So... Last night, I'm doing some writing, and before I put the laptop to bed for the night, I checked the currencies, and while they had drifted in the early Asian session, the Big Dog, euro was still trading above 1.50, and the Aussie dollar (A$) had set a 15 month high of .9368... But when I turned the currency screens on this morning after arriving to a pitch black office, which is the way I like it this early in the morning, the euro had given back about 1/2 cent, and so had the A$... So, it was my mission to find out what caused this slippage......
  • Silence Is Golden...

    In This Issue..

    * A HUGE dollar sell off overnight...
    * BLS admits the Birth/Death model was wrong...
    * The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall...
    * Kiwi is best performer overnight...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Spectacular weekend, weather wise, here in the Midwest... And Indian Summer, is what my dad would have called it. The news from the Sports teams wasn't so spectacular, but we had the weather going for us!

    Welcome to Monday's edition of A Pfennig For Your Thoughts... I'll start off today with a note about the currencies, then do a recap of Friday, and then a look ahead to the rest of the week... So... Strap yourself in, and make sure to keep your arms and legs inside at all times during the ride!...
  • Rates To Remain Near Zero...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar reverses sell-off...
    * BOE & ECB meet today...
    * New Zealand is not Australia...
    * Funny accounting...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because it's a Thursday and it's not raining! Yay for us! Well... Not only was I wrong, but the Bloomberg Economic Calendar was wrong too... The FOMC was not a 2-day meeting after all! Just one day, so no time to pull out the board games and cards...

    I nailed that FOMC statement yesterday... WOW! You might begin to think that I have some inside info on the Fed Heads, the way I've been able to basically call every move they've made since the beginning of this whole meltdown in August of 2007! But that's not important here... The important thing is that the Fed said that economic growth is not enough to hike rates, and therefore they will keep interest rates at near zero for an 'extended period'...

    ...
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