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  • A Turnaround Tuesday!

    In This Issue.

    * The price of Oil surges higher!

    * Home Prices continue to fall!

    * But Consumer Confidence is strong! Go figure!

    * Japan posts first Trade Deficit in 22 months!

    ...
  • Jobs Disappoint Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls below 1.20...
    * Did we have negative "real" job creation?
    * Canada's labor market is strong...
    * G-20 yields nothing...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was a wonderful jam-packed weekend for yours truly, and when the alarm went off this morning, I had a greater appreciation for 3-day weekends!

    Well... Friday, when I was signing off, I said that suddenly the currencies were getting sold... At that time, it looked as if it might be short-lived... But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! This was an all-out assault on risk, folks... At when the dust settled in the early afternoon, the euro had fallen below 1.20, for the first time since 2005, and everything other currency was getting whacked too... For the first time all week though, Gold rallied......
  • Let's Talk Deficits...

    In This Issue..

    * A$, kiwi, and C$'s outperform...
    * Yen gets what is deserved!
    * Deficit to reach 100% of GDP?
    * Don't they work for us?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It has been Thunderin' here most of the night, so it was quite fitting to call our Thursday, Thunderin'! It's been a week of pop-up Thunder Showers for us here in the Midwest... If summer plays out the way most summers play out, we'll be pining for rain come August!

    The Japanese have a new Prime Minister (Kan), and the currency markets don't like it! The once so-called 'safe haven' of yen, is getting sand kicked in its face, and rightly so, as the new PM has previously stated his goal of a weaker yen...

    ...
  • Japanese Investment Trusts To Buy A$'s?

    In This Issue..
    * Currencies recover from Discount rate hike...
    * Gold recovers too...
    * An idea for Greece...
    * Loonies fueled by Oil and Gold...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Happy Birthday George Washington! One of my fave past Presidents for sure! And I'm so excited about this, it can't wait until the last paragraph... How about that U.S. Men's Hockey VS Canada game last night? WOW! I had a reader ask me a couple of months ago why I didn't mention the U.S. Under 20 men's hockey Championship, which came against Canada... So there, hopefully I made up for that missing comment!

    Well... Front and Center this morning... Let's start with this... Consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, equaling the increases in December and November. Market expectations going into the report had been for a slightly larger 0.3% rise. Core prices surprisingly fell 0.1% in January following the 0.1% rise recorded in December and the flat reading in November. On a year-over-year basis, the overall CPI index rose 2.6% in December....
  • G-20 Heats Up...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar's rally is cut short...
    * Major problems for loans still exist...
    * Yen rallies on exporter repatriation...
    * Kiwi gets whacked!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's still raining here in St. Louis this morning, but I won't that get me down, as it is a Friday! G-20 has gotten a bit ugly, folks... Seems everyone just can't seem to get along! Imagine that! 20 different countries, and now they want to be able to watch another country's finances and comment on them! Oh, I can see that working out real well! NOT!

    So... Yesterday, we had the dollar gaining back the ground that it had lost the previous day, but at the end of the day, we're looking very much like the currencies hadn't moved from morning to morning... And overnight, didn't bring about much movement... So... When you get to the currency round-up below, you'll see the dollar's gains were small, and short-lived....
  • More Strong Data Sinks The Dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies near 1-year levels...
    * Canadian loonies are best performer!
    * Dangling a carrot...
    * Oil trades above $72...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Why Tub Thumpin'? Why not? Besides, the non-dollar currencies are darn near where they were a year ago, having a good chunk of the ground they lost during the Financial Meltdown last fall and winter... Not that I'm a cheerleader, but more of a 'this is what I believed would happen, and glad to see a plan come together' kind of guy!

    And since I, unlike throngs of people that like to point out errors, put my beliefs in writing every day... Right out there / here, in the open, for anyone to take pot shots at... But, I learned long ago that there will always be those that disagree, and not to let it upset or change the things I believe...

    ...
  • A shrinking US economy puts pressure on the US$...

    In This Issue..

    * US GDP falls more than expected...
    * FOMC holds course...
    * Canadian dollar has a great week...
    * Oil helps commodity currencies...

    Good day... Yesterday was a big day in St. Louis as President Obama came to visit on his 100th day in office. I can't believe it has been 100 days since the inauguration. Time sure does fly! I'm sure Obama and the rest of his administration would like the calendar to move even faster as this recession will likely last through the end of 2009. While the government has thrown trillions of dollars at the markets in an attempt to turn them around, the key ingredient for recessionary cycles to reverse is time. There is now 'quick fix' for the problems we are in, and the policies the administration has begun will take time to have an impact on our shrinking economy. Obama said as much in his nationally televised press conference last night....
  • Euro Rally Fizzles Out...

    * Yen continues to kick! * Jim Rogers disses sterling... * China's 4th QTR GDP... * Singapore announces stimulus... ** Euro Rally Fizzles Out... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! A nasty day in the currencies yesterday, except Japan of course. The Dow jumped 290 points yesterday, maybe an Obama bounce? You all know that I subscribe to an Obama bounce for stocks and the dollar in the first part of this year... But given what I know about, and what you now know about, after I drew it all out yesterday, the additions to the deficit that Obama will make, the focus on the fundamentals should return by late spring, early summer... That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! Well... As I said in the opening, the currencies led by the Big Dog, euro, suffered through a nasty trading day, with the euro touching below 1.29 for a good part of the day. The risk takers are nowhere to be found. Where have all the risk takers gone... Long time passing... A Reuters reporter asked me yesterday if I was still of the opinion that the yen had more to rally or was it overbought? I said, that as long as the risk takers are nowhere to be found, yen should continue on its path higher VS the dollar, euro and sterling. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for yen, shows that it is a tad overbought, but that's not enough to change my mind. Nor is it enough to change the mind of a currency trader at the Bank of New York (BONY), who believes yen may rise to 85 VS the dollar by midyear... Another currency trader at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) believes the Bank of Japan will step in and intervene to stem the yen's rise.......
  • Wild Swings!

    * Euro gains, then loses, then gains... * Inflation and Commodities... * The euro turns 10! * Risk Aversion remains but is waning... ** Wild Swings! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, it happened way too late for yours truly to witness it, but my beloved Missouri Tigers rallied and won the Alamo Bowl in overtime. Go Tigers! Hopefully they can fix the defense before next fall! OK... Remember those Wild Swings I talked about yesterday? The Wild Swings that could be a result of thin volumes in this the second week of Christmas. Well... We witnessed them in earnest yesterday! As I signed off yesterday, I told you that the euro had rallied 2 whole figures to 1.43 and change. Well, that rally dissipated throughout the morning, and by late in the day the single unit was 1.39 and change... WOW! Now that's a Wild Swing! You can point to profit taking as the reason for the move, and with the volumes thinned out by Holiday trading, one profit taking sell begot another, and before you knew it, the euro was looking at a loss on the day....
  • Its all about the yen...

    * Japan dominates news wires... * US retail sales to drop... * Russia devalues the ruble again... * Happy Birthday Kathy Butler... ** Its all about the yen... Good day...Hope everyone had a wonderful holiday, I had a great Christmas and Christmas eve. I ate entirely too much, but that is one of the joys of the holidays! Most of the markets were closed yesterday, and trading was very light on Christmas eve. The Asian markets were open, and the dollar did sell off a bit vs. most of the major currencies with the one exception being the Japanese yen. Unless we see a big bounce today, the yen will end the day with the first weekly loss vs. the US$ in two months. With a majority of markets closed, most news stories centered around the Japanese yen. Japanese industrial production fell the most in 55 years as reported on Wednesday. Factory output plunged 8.1% from October, more than 6.8% estimated by economists. Other data released in Japan showed the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% from 3.7%, and household spending slid .5%, a ninth drop....
  • Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation?

    * A bounce in the euro overnight... * Iran tests long range missiles... * Japan's Machine Orders soar! * Is Big Ben giving us a hint? ** Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Things settled down a bit yesterday, with the rumors of bailout for Fannie and Freddie Macs fading, and some awful Housing data being swept under the rug. The dollar gained back the ground it had lost to the euro the previous day, and Japan printed a very strong Machine Orders report... And now Iran tests long range missiles... All that and more as we begin our Wednesday... OK, front and center this morning... The Housing data from yesterday. Since the media decided to sweep this under the rug, I thought I would make certain that at least Pfennig Readers were aware of the rot on the Housing vine. The index of Pending Home resales fell -4.7% in April, a much larger decline than the "experts" forecast. I think what you're seeing here is simply that would be buyers are holding off as they expect further declines in prices.....
  • Fundamentals Rule!

    * Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...