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  • A Huge Data Week...

    * Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...

  • Inflation & Jobless Rate Soars!

    * Dollar wages war on euro! * Pulling the wool over our eyes... * A Gold discussion... * 4-weeks of selling renminbi... ** Inflation & Jobless Rate Soars! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's been 3 weeks since I last started a Friday with that note. I hit every red light this morning on my way to work, which led me to think aloud in the parking lot, that this isn't going to be a Fantastico Friday... And when I turned on the currency screens, after reaching my desk, I could see why I thought those negative thoughts... It's getting ugly... Yesterday, I was busy with my head down working on something, when Chris Gaffney yelled across the trading desk, "Hey, Chuck, what happened to the euro?" I looked up to see the euro had lost 1-cent in a matter of 20 minutes... But that's not the end... This morning, the euro has given up another 1-cent, and now trades with a 1.47 handle. Just what the heck is going on here?...

  • Retail Sales Disappoint Again...

    * Dollar rally continues... * U.S. data continues to be weak... * Gold and the A$... * Sterling melts away... ** Retail Sales Disappoint... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Michael Phelps didn't swim in any finals yesterday, so no Gold for the U.S! I'm just floored by this kid! My oldest son, Andrew, was a pretty good swimmer in his day, but my goodness, this kid is on a different planet! OK... Well, front and center this morning, we have a report that just printed that shows U.S. Home Foreclosures rose 55% in July. Bank seizures almost tripled according to RealtyTrac Inc. That's sad folks, simply sad... I look at this report and shake my head in disgust for Alan Greenspan. Yes, Big Al Greenspan is the root of all evil in the housing meltdown... Sure there were the greedy folks that booked loans that shouldn't have happened and all that, but down at the root of the meltdown you'll find Big Al's picture!...

  • Bunning Throws A High Hard One!

    * The dollar has a mini-rally... * TIC's data... Very scary! * Sov. Wealth Funds dropping the dollar? * Inflation or deflation? ** Bunning Throws A High Hard One! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! The dollar rallied most of yesterday, but has backed off in the morning markets ahead of the Housing Starts data in the U.S. that will print later this morning. I've got some words to Big Ben from Senator Jim Bunning for you this morning, along with some more discussion on whether our bullet is inflation or deflation... All this and more, as we get to Tub Thumpin' on this Thundering Thursday! Well... As I mention above, the dollar was the belle of the ball yesterday, as the U.S. Financials recovered, thus giving those dollar / U.S. assets bulls a reason to believe... Someone like you makes it hard to.. No wait, that's Rod, not the reason these dolts bought dollar assets! The euro fell all the way to 1.58 and looked as though it would trade with at 1.57 handle, this just one day after trading above 1.60! What the heck was going on here? Ahhh, grasshopper, sit down, and listen......

  • Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation?

    * A bounce in the euro overnight... * Iran tests long range missiles... * Japan's Machine Orders soar! * Is Big Ben giving us a hint? ** Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Things settled down a bit yesterday, with the rumors of bailout for Fannie and Freddie Macs fading, and some awful Housing data being swept under the rug. The dollar gained back the ground it had lost to the euro the previous day, and Japan printed a very strong Machine Orders report... And now Iran tests long range missiles... All that and more as we begin our Wednesday... OK, front and center this morning... The Housing data from yesterday. Since the media decided to sweep this under the rug, I thought I would make certain that at least Pfennig Readers were aware of the rot on the Housing vine. The index of Pending Home resales fell -4.7% in April, a much larger decline than the "experts" forecast. I think what you're seeing here is simply that would be buyers are holding off as they expect further declines in prices.....

  • Fundamentals Rule!

    * Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...

  • "Somewhat Receded"?

    * Fed leaves rates unchanged... * A dovish tone to the Fed... * Dollar Bulls run for the hills! * Norway raises rates... ** "Somewhat Receded"? Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... If you are a non-dollar owner, you might want to quickly go to the currency round-up to check on your currency / currencies... The Fed left rates unchanged and were quite dovish in their statement, and the dollar has been sent to the woodshed... Welcome back! Front and Center this morning, we have a currency rally going on, with the euro leading the dogs off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. The single unit has pushed past the 1.57 handle this morning, and the high yielders of Aussie, kiwi, and Brazil are all dancing in the streets because their positive rate differentials are even more in the face of traders now....

  • Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue"

    * The U.S. economy in a wreck! * More problems to come... * Funky accounting at the Fed... * SNB leaves rates unchanged... **Paulson Speaks With A "Double Tongue" - Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was alone last night, and decided to write... Oh Boy! Are you, dear reader, in trouble when I begin writing at night for the next morning! My Cardinals were losing again, so my attention turned to putting down all these thoughts that keep coming into my head... Like Michael Keaton in Night Shift (what a great movie!) I need a recorder to put all these thoughts down... Like... Feed the mayo to the tuna! OK... Front and Center this morning, the euro's rally that went on all day yesterday and into the early Asian session (all the way to 1.5580) ended this morning... Someone, somewhere decided that the U.S. will be able to squeeze by this slowdown... Unfortunately, I don't agree! I see the U.S. being involved with the multi-car accident on the highway... But as Pfennig readers you already know that... However, instead of just hearing from me all the time about this meltdown of the U.S. economy, let's hear from an organization that tracks these things......

  • Calling Out The Fed...

    * TIC's look funny... * Germany's ZEW is weaker... * A note from the Washington Post! * Tons of data today... **Calling Out The Fed... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Someone from the Washington Post is a Pfennig Reader (I think!), as there was a great article in the paper calling out the Fed on their "rate hike" rhetoric... I'll give you snippets of that, and a snippet from my friend, the Mogambo Guru, along with the usual currency talk, on this Terrific Tuesday... Ready, set, let's go! Front and Center this morning is the dollar getting sold all day yesterday, as the euro recovered all the way to 1.5515 in the overnight markets. Unfortunately, the single unit was stopped in its rally tracks by an awful printing of German Investor Confidence, as measured by the think tank ZEW... German Investor Confidence dropped to the lowest level in 15 years this month, as rising inflation is eating away at the economy. I don't expect this report to put too much a dent in the single unit's performance today, but for now it has slipped back below 1.55......

  • Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric...

    * More dollar strength... * Retail Sales surprise... * SARB raises rates! * Gold on the slippery slope... **Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It will be a Fantastico Friday (Hopefully) for the boys and girls in the St. Louis office, as we head to Busch Stadium tonight for a Cardinals baseball game... We even have a special guest that will be with us, so party on Wayne... Party on Garth! Well... Things went a little crazy on the desk while I was away yesterday... When I returned home last night, I had a ton of emails from the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and that's usually a sign that things didn't go well! Frank plays hockey on Friday mornings, and said he will call me to bring me up to date on his way to hockey......

  • When Will The Fed Be Called Out?

    * More dollar strength... * Conspiracy theories... * BOC leaves rates unchanged... * A euro chart discussion... **Front and Center this morning, the dollar continued to hold the advantage over the euro and other currencies yesterday and in the overnight market... The euro did attempt to rally overnight, but that move was thwarted, as an European Central Bank (ECB) member, Stark, threw cold water on the rally. Stark, said that "the markets have understood the Governing Council's signal", which meant the markets understood that the ECB was going to raise rates in July... But then the cold water came flying out of the bucket as Stark then said, "However, we are not talking about a series of rate increases."...

  • A War Of Words...

    * Undynamic duo sound off! * The dollar rebounds! * Inflation expectations? * BOC to cut rates today......

  • Jawboning The Dollar Higher...

    * More bias to buy dollars... * Printing money... * Kiwi gets hit hard! * Rate announcements today......

  • On The Soapbox Again...

    * Euro loses 1 1/2-cents... * Currencies get taken to the woodshed... * Bernanke joins Paulson, but why? * A China comment explanation......

  • A Fantastico Friday!

    * Exiting Home Sales... * Chart talks... * A good week for Aussie! * Inflation talk......
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