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  • Tale of two trading sessions...

    In This Issue..

    * Tale of two trading sessions...
    * Commodities rally overnight...
    * India raises rates, Sweden next?...
    * Happy Birthday Frank...

    Good day, we have had two very different trading sessions in the past 24 hours, with the dollar benefitting from continued worries about Greece and Goldman Sachs in yesterday's US trading session; but Asia saw things a bit differently and started moving money back into 'risk' assets. Early trading in Europe mirrors the moves in Asia, so the dollar is heading lower as I turn the screens on this morning.

    Only one piece of data was released yesterday here in the US, with the Leading Economic Indicators index climbing 1.4%, the most in 10 months. The index beat economists estimates, and February's figure was revised up to .4%. This data indicated the US economy is on track to continue to recover, but the markets seemed to just ignore this data as they focused on the lawsuit against Goldman Sachs....
  • Goldman accused of fraud...

    In This Issue..

    * Goldman accused of fraud...
    * Euro drops on Greek questions...
    * India may raise rates to quell inflation...


    Good day, I'll start the week off with a piece of good news regarding Chuck. His surgery went well on Friday, and he got to go home from the hospital on Saturday. I exchanged several emails with him yesterday, and he said the pain is dramatically better and he was able to make it through Sunday without the help of pain medication. The doctors want him to rest for a while, but the prognosis sounds good. Thanks again to everyone for all the emails of support, your prayers and words of encouragement are appreciated.

    ...
  • Roller coaster ride for the dollar...

    In This Issue..
    * Bernanke sees rates remaining low...
    * Greece continues to weigh on the euro...
    * Yen climbs vs euro...
    * India's economy expands...

    Good day... We finally got a bit of the volatility we've been looking for yesterday, as the markets moved dramatically as the Fed Chief testified before congress. But overnight the Asians had a different opinion and moved the dollar back up. So the currency markets were pretty much like a roller coaster ride, moving dramatically up and down but ending up pretty much right back where we started. I'll begin where we left off yesterday, the Fed Chairman's testimony to the House Financial Services committee.

    As we expected, the Fed Chairman told the committee members that Fed will keep interest rates near record low levels for several more months as the 'nascent' recovery remains fragile. The dollar immediately sold off as currency traders who had bet on an early jump in US interest rates reversed their dollar long positions. But in taking a page right out of Greenspan's book, Bernanke tried his best to play to both sides of the House, saying that 'Private final demand does seem to be growing at a moderate pace....' and telling the congressmen that the Fed will need to start tightening policy 'at some point'....
  • Stocks Still Retain Some Pull...

    In This Issue..

    * Profit taking supports the dollar...
    * India posts strong data...
    * Sweden's inflation is above target...
    * Bill Gross, and Puru Saxena on a Tuesday!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! We reached the freezing mark yesterday, YAHOO! The first time this year! OK... So, we've got that going for us, here in St. Louis! A HUGE story going around St. Louis, and the country for that matter, yesterday, regarding the admission by Mark McGwire of taking steroids... Has the town buzzing... What? They didn't already have that Idea before? Hmmm...

    Well, the euphoria around the risk assets of currencies and commodities got watered down as the day went on yesterday, and that continued throughout the overnight and morning sessions in Asia and Europe. The currencies and commodities haven't turned on a dime, they just stopped moving higher VS the dollar... Although, now that I've said that, the euro has dipped below 1.45......
  • Dollar holds onto recent gains...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar holds onto recent gains...
    * Norwegian krone to move higher in 2010...
    * SNB gives up intervention...
    * India to raise rates...

    Good day...We got the promised 'sprinkling' of snow over the weekend, it was kind of nice and got everyone in the holiday mood. Nothing like the blizzard which hammered the east coast with up to 2 feet of snow! The bad weather in NY will likely make what was already going to be thing currency markets even lighter. The dollar stayed in a fairly tight range on Friday, with the South African rand being the only currency moving more than 1% (it was down 1.1% vs. the US$)....
  • Game off for risk trades...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar hits 3 month high...
    * Norges bank raises .25%...
    * Fed repeats call to keep rates low...
    * Inflation in India rises...

    Good day...And welcome to Thursday. Chuck started his Christmas vacation, so I have the honor of bringing you the daily missive for the next week or so. The dollar continued to gain strength throughout the day as investors waited on news from the FOMC. Overnight, Greece sustained another rate cut, this time by S&P, which caused investors to move back toward the 'safety' of the US$. The news caused the dollar to rally to a 3 month high vs. the Euro and post gains across the board. The currency markets are becoming a bit volatile again, and much of this volatility can be linked back to the return of a transaction which dominated currency markets over the past decade....
  • Rates To Remain Near Zero...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar reverses sell-off...
    * BOE & ECB meet today...
    * New Zealand is not Australia...
    * Funny accounting...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because it's a Thursday and it's not raining! Yay for us! Well... Not only was I wrong, but the Bloomberg Economic Calendar was wrong too... The FOMC was not a 2-day meeting after all! Just one day, so no time to pull out the board games and cards...

    I nailed that FOMC statement yesterday... WOW! You might begin to think that I have some inside info on the Fed Heads, the way I've been able to basically call every move they've made since the beginning of this whole meltdown in August of 2007! But that's not important here... The important thing is that the Fed said that economic growth is not enough to hike rates, and therefore they will keep interest rates at near zero for an 'extended period'...

    ...
  • Jobs Disappoint...

    In This Issue..

    * September job losses soar to 263,000...
    * G-7 does not make statement on currencies...
    * RBA meets tonight...
    * India & Brazil pull the right strings...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The Regular Season for Baseball is over, except... The Tigers and Twins have to play a one-game playoff today! Talk about exciting! And that's just to see who gets to go the playoffs!

    Well... Friday's Jobs Jamboree did disappoint as I had the feeling they would, printing a disappointing -263,000 jobs lost in September. The Unemployment Rate also rose to 9.8%... Now we all know that when all the people that are truly unemployed are counted, that the Unemployment Rate goes to 16%, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will have none of that so-called counting ACTUAL Unemployed people!...
  • Renminbi To Become An International Currency?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies give back ground overnight...
    * Don't look too closely at U.S. data...
    * India posts strong GDP...
    * Lots O'-data this week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Wonderful Weekend was enjoyed by your Pfennig writer, with good friends, and Chamber of Commerce weather, on a beautiful lake! It's back to work today though. I don't understand why I didn't plan on taking today and staying an additional day at that beautiful lake! Oh well... Time to go to work!

    When I signed off on Friday morning, the currencies were enjoying a very nice rally, which remained in place the rest of the day. The Consumer Income and Spending data was very much as I describe it would be, and so there was no surprise for the markets to deal with. You may recall, that I told you that Spending would be greater than Income, as the 'Cars for Clunkers' probably had something to do with the Spending be so much stronger than the Income piece......
  • House prices move up, but consumers still aren't confident...

    In This Issue..

    * House prices move up...
    * US consumers are worried...
    * Japanese retail sales drag...
    * Australian rates to rise...

    Good day... We finally had a bit of volatility in the currency markets yesterday, as conflicting data released in two separate reports moved the markets in opposite directions. The dollar started off the day drifting lower, as has been the pattern over the past 2 weeks. But during the late morning the dollar started gaining strength, and has barely paused its ascent overnight.

    Many of you probably heard the news reports that home prices finally rose during the month of May, and this is what had the dollar on the ropes yesterday morning. The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index reported that home prices in the US rose ever so slightly in May compared to April. But if we look at the annual figures, home prices are still down just over 17% across the country. Media outlets trumpeted this 'feel good' story with many economists declaring that housing has now turned a corner. This is a good sign, as prices have to stabilize before the housing sector can recover, but it is hard to get overly excited about a 17% drop YOY. The monthly figure rose just .5%, reflecting the first monthly gain since July 2006. Another report showed the share of homes sold as foreclosures or otherwise distressed properties fell to about 31% in June, down from a high of 50% seen earlier this year. With unemployment still creeping up, and the US consumer continuing to save instead of spend, I am going to need to see a couple of months of stabilized prices before I am convinced housing is turning the corner here in the US....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Russia's Fin Min talks up the dollar!
    * Currencies, commodities, stocks all lose ground...
    * Who's car is uglier
    * Gold hit a 3-week low...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! How about that weekend? I actually didn't get a chance to experience much of it outside, but it sure looked great! We have new champions in basketball and hockey, so congrats to the Lakers and Penguins on their Championships! Now, the housecleaning is out of the way... It's time to get to the meat... Where's the beef? HA!...
  • Spraying Round-up....

    In This Issue..

    * Industrial Production declines...
    * Stocks sell off, leading currencies down...
    * Indian election spurs a rally...
    * China stockpiles commodities...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Thanks to Chris for picking up the ball on the Pfennig Friday. I returned to St. Louis with a very swollen leg and foot from all that walking in Las Vegas. One of these days I'll learn, eh? Any way... A restful day with my feet up on Friday, and I was ready to go again!

    Well... As much as I dislike having to say so, because I told you this might happen... The currencies have given back some major ground VS the dollar since Friday morning. It's all tied to the fact that the euphoria going around the markets the previous week regarding stocks and the U.S. economy, came to a screeching halt last week. I pleaded and begged for the currencies to break this link to stocks, but it wouldn't / didn't happen and voila! What we have here is a failure to break the link, and now that there's a falling demand for stocks, currencies have tanked too... UGH!...
  • Gold As An Inflation Fighter!

    * BOE to cut rates today... * ECB will wait to cut for now... * Black clouds forming for India? * German factory Orders plunge! ** Gold As An Inflation Fighter! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Day One at the Orlando World Money Show (WMS) went well. My room for the presentation was packed! It was standing room only, and the good part was the fact that there were only about 30 Pfennig readers in the crowd. I say that not because I have something against Pfennig readers, oh Lord, they are dear readers! The reason I say that is I like to know how many of the non-readers I can convert to Pfennig readers!...
  • A New Year!

    * Currencies range trade... * With a bias to buy dollars... * Recession deepens in Eurozone... * India cuts rates... ** A New Year! Good day... Happy New Year! And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, I bet it will be, as most people are still on "holiday". I hope your New Year's celebration went well, mine did, spent with good friends, after a simply scrumptious dinner! Yesterday, we spent the day with friends again, as good friend Rick, had everyone and their brother to his new house to celebrate the New Year... I'm worn out! Good thing this is a quick shot work day, and then onto the weekend, because I'm spent! Well, enough of all that! The currencies traded in a very tight range on Wednesday, and I expect more of that today. The bias has been to buy dollars going into the year-end, and it looks as though that might be the case today, as there's been no data to speak of in the U.S., while the Eurozone printed a very weak manufacturing index report, indicating that the Eurozone's recession is deepening. Of course if we compared apples to apples the bias would be to buy euros, but since there hasn't been any "real" economic data in a couple of days from the U.S. this report from the Eurozone gets all the attention....
  • Holiday pause...

    * US data may wake up the markets... * Toyota reports a loss... * NZD falls, AUD gains... * Will the Rupee shine in 2009?... ** Holiday pause... Good day... The currency markets remained in a tight range through the day yesterday with no movement from the majors currencies vs. the US$. Japan has a public holiday today, so trading this afternoon will be very quiet. Jennifer, who is doing all of our currency trading while Chuck is out, let me know that the trading desks were extremely quiet yesterday afternoon. But the markets may wake up a bit this morning, as we wait for data on 3rd quarter growth in the US. GDP is expected to have fallen .5% in the 3rd quarter, and Personal Consumption is also predicted to have dropped last quarter. Later in the morning we will get reports on the sagging housing market. New home sales and existing home sales are both expected to have dropped slightly during the month of November. And with sales dropping, prices of both existing homes and new homes are also expected to have dropped. Finally, this afternoon we will get the ABC Consumer Confidence number which will likely show another drop in consumer sentiment....