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  • The Ghost of John Connally.

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies take a breather.

    * IMF talks renminbi as reserve currency.

    * Aussie Unemployment drops! .

    * Chuck tries to sing like Bill Medley.

    ...
    Filed under: , ,
  • Global Manufacturing Rises.

    In This Issue.

    * Chinese play games with exports and imports.

    * Strong Chinese PMI pushes currencies higher.

    * IMF says Swedish krona not hurting economy.

    * Chuck on The Street.com.

    And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

    Global Manufacturing Rises.

    ...
    Filed under: , ,
  • China To Add Another Country To Its Roster.

    In This Issue.

    * A$'s and euro reverse places.

    * IMF lowers Chinas economic growth outlook.

    * No love for the A$.

    * Gold rallies close to $1,400 again.

    ...
    Filed under: , ,
  • Dollar drops after US inflation slows slightly . . .

    In This Issue.

    * Dollar drops on inflation data . . .

    * Norway's rate cut to inflate a housing bubble?

    * IMF agrees with the Pfennig . . .

    * A belated St. Patrick's Day story . . .

    ...
  • Do Investors Pay Attention To Ratings Agencies?

    In This Issue.

    * A roller coaster ride for euros.

    * Germany & IMF lower growth forecasts.

    * China's back on currency appreciation tracks.

    * Why QE was really done.

    ...
  • Ratings agencies make it tough on the European leaders...

    In This Issue.

    * S&P issues more downgrades...

    * US trade deficit balloons...

    * IMF lowers global growth estimate...

    * China's soft landing continues...

    ...
  • Japan is officially back into recession. . .

    In This Issue.

    * Japanese economy slips back into recession

    * IMF looks for a new leader

    * Commodities rally, bringing the commodity currencies along with them

    * Singapore raises their growth forecast

    ...
  • A Return To Debit Crisis Trading...

    In This Issue..

    * Strong euro rally fizzles out overnight...
    * Russia to add C$ and A$'s?
    * IMF sides with U.S. on Chinese currency policy...
    * Aussie housing starts are strong...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday... Man! Did we have some torrential downpours yesterday! The creek that my yard backs to was 'a risen'! I can't imagine all the rainouts of ballgames this spring... It's one of the things that drove me crazy, when I was a baseball manager...

    OK... The rain was coming down hard on the dollar yesterday too... But, this morning, when I turn on the screens, it looks like that dollar selling that went on all day yesterday, has had the brakes applied. I would say slammed on, but it all happened while I was sleeping, so I don't really know for sure!...
  • FOMC Day – 04/28/2010...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes into a tailspin...
    * Portugal gets downgraded...
    * Germans talk with IMF today
    * Aussie CPI indicates rate hike...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you... Today marks 1-week since I've been back writing the Pfennig... I simply love writing the Pfennig each day, and boy did I miss it when I was unable to write... Vacation is one thing, those are well deserved breaks, but to not be able to write is another. So... I'm thankful that I'm able to write again...

    Well... The euro went into a tailspin yesterday, and for once it wasn't Greece so much... This time it was a little Greece, and a lot Portugal. The ratings agencies downgraded Greek debt to junk... And they downgraded Portugal's debt from A- to A-2, with a negative outlook. The fear that Greek's debt problems would spread, is coming to fruition... The euro fell to a 1-year low during the day, and the selling didn't stop in the U.S!...
  • Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...
    * Decision on Norwegian interest rates...
    * Canadian dollar rises...
    * Kiwi to outpace Australian dollar...

    Good day, the dollar gained ground across the board as the news hit that the IMF will be brought in to help rescue Greece. The dollar was also helped by data which showed existing housing sales fell by less than expected in February. We will get additional news on the status of the US economy today, with the release of durable goods and new home sales numbers for February. We will get a rate decision by the Norwegian central bank today, which could stoke calls for higher rates here in the US. But the big news overnight is concerning the euro (again!).

    The euro sold off by a full percentage point vs. the US$ after both Germany and France are reported to have agreed to have the IMF involved in aid to Greece. This is an about face for European leaders who announced last week that they had agreed on a European solution to the Greek crisis. But Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel threw a spanner in the works a week ago when she said Germany would not participate in giving Greece financial aid. This threw the euro into crisis mode again, as the 'agreement' reached early last week never materialized....
  • It Was a Risk Off Day!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk aversion sets in again...
    * IMF sends Gold to the woodshed...
    * Ron Paul chimes in...
    * U.S. data all prints good...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! How are you today? You know, I was thinking about that yesterday... I tend to tell you quite a bit how I'm doing, but I fail to ask you how you're doing... Heard one of my all-time fave songs on the way to work today, which put a smile on my face, and of course led me to sing-along! Oh! The name of the song? Mellissa - by the Allman Brothers...

    Well, front and center this morning, we had the entire day and a half rally in the risk assets completely erased, wiped out, and reversed yesterday... Recall, that I told you in the morning that the euro had lost about 1/4-cent while I was writing... Well, it held to near 1.37 until about mid morning, and then the trap door was sprung, and the euro went falling through the 1.37, and 1.36 floors!...
  • Bad GDP numbers are overshadowed by a jump in housing...

    In This Issue..

    * GDP comes in lower, but is overshadowed by housing numbers...
    * IMF predicts debt problems for advanced economies...
    * French consumer spending falls...
    * Gold is cheap below $1,100...

    Good day...The currency markets were a bit more volatile yesterday, as we got some surprising data releases here in the US. But after the dust settled, the dollar closed out the day pretty much right where it had started vs. most of the major currencies. Gold and silver continued to slide, but the price of oil moved up a bit. Today we will get another big round of economic data, which could cause some more volatility in the markets.

    The driver of the currency markets yesterday was the economic releases here in the US. The morning started off with the Commerce Department's final reading of GDP for the 3rd quarter of 2009. The final figure showed an increase of just 2.2% for the third quarter, well below the consensus estimate of 2.8%. The report illustrates just how optimistic (and some feel unreasonably so) the folks at the Commerce department are. Their first estimate of 3rd quarter GDP was 3.5%, but after further evaluation they lowered that figure to 2.8% for their second estimate. And after a further review of the data, they settled on the 2.2% figure, a full 1.3% lower than their original estimate. This is a downward adjustment of close to 40%! I'm sure there wasn't any pressure on the Commerce dept to inflate the first couple of estimates....