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  • SNB Cut Rates 100 BPS!

    * Trading Theme returns... * Automakers' bailout vote today... * Not using all your arrows... * Housing Starts go back to 1959! ** SNB Cut Rates 100 BPS! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's a short week for me, so this IS a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I head to Florida tomorrow, and I'm ready! After last week, and the cold that's set in here, I'm ready! Too bad I'll be working about 1/2 the time! But, I'm not complainin'! OK... Whew! What an awful day yesterday for the currencies... In the morning, they ere in rally mode with the euro gaining ground to well within the 1.27 handle. But then the Trading Theme set in, and those gains were wiped out. The Trading Theme was set off by the awful Housing data, which reminded everyone of the deep, dark , dangerous days ahead... I bought some euros, and watched them rise, and went off to do something else... When I returned, they had fallen... UGH! The Japanese yen, however, rallied, as is the case with the Trading Theme... Risk trades get unwound, which benefits dollars, and yen. I've explained all this before, so I won't get into it again, but there's someone that has gone into the problems (credit markets and the Fed and Treasury's response to the crisis), and does a great job of telling it like it is... So, instead of hearing from me, ranting and cursing the "leaders" I'll let someone else explain it to you... This is a fellow named Ted Cook, that Ty Keough sent my way......
  • Chuck finally heads back home...

    * Chuck's thoughts... * US housing still a drag... * Rate cuts push currencies lower... * Yen rallies and is joined by some odd partners... ** Chuck finally heads back home.. Good day...Another big move up by the dollar and the Japanese yen last night. Really just another repeat of what we have been seeing each day of this week, dollar down, gold down, and oil down. And with the stock market falling dramatically yesterday, all of us on the desk were searching for something that was actually up yesterday. Our bond trader, Don Reis let me know that muni bonds rallied dramatically, along with US treasuries. So I guess investors are just continuing to park funds into the US fixed income markets. Chuck is headed back home this afternoon, after spending the past two weeks traveling the country with FX University. I'm sure he will be happy to get to sleep in his own bed again tonight, and will catch up on his rest tomorrow. He sent me the following note to share with readers....
  • Comfortably Numb...

    * Comfortably numb... * Data confirms the US slowdown... * NZD and AUD end the week with gains... * Hungarian forint stabilizes... ** Comfortably numb... Good day...These dramatic swings in the markets are becoming so common place that a move of 400 pts by the Dow doesn't really garner much notice. After all, in the past five days, the Dow Jones average has had a trading range of almost 2,000 points, but after five dramatic days the stock market is trading almost exactly where it was a week ago. And the volatility in the equity markets has carried over to the currency markets, where we continued the roller coaster ride which began a few weeks ago. Yesterday, the dollar began the day with a strong move up in early European trading. But a plethora of bad data released here in the US caused the greenback to reverse course, and it wiped out all of its earlier gains. But the bargain hunting rally in the stock market during the afternoon pulled the dollar along with it, and we ended the day with a dollar index which was slightly higher than the day before. Today is shaping up to be a similar trading pattern, as Europe has begun the day buying dollars vs. most of the major currencies....
  • Sanity returns to the currency market...

    * Sanity returns to the currency market... * Chucks thoughts from San Diego... * CDS market explanation... * Swiss central bank to leave rates unchanged... ** Sanity returns to the currency market... Good day...Wow! What a day it was yesterday on the currency/metals desk here at EverBank. Finally, some sanity returned to the markets as investors moved out of their dollar holdings and into both currencies and metals. Gold was up over $80 yesterday, and continues to climb this morning. The Aussie dollar was up over 2%, climbing back above .80 cents and the Euro climbed back above $1.45. The dollar was up pretty much across the board, making for a very busy day here on the desk. Chuck also had a great day down in San Diego with FXU. He sent me the following late last night which he asked me to share with you....
  • More Dollar Strength!

    * Trichet's words sink the euro rally... * A New Conspiracy theory... * Japanese yen continues to rally! * An Announcement... ** More Dollar Strength! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It has not started out as a Fantastico Friday, just a Fun Friday... No wait! Just because the dollar is running around the end with the ball, and the currencies can't catch up with the greenback, is no reason to allow it to filter through to my feelings about each and every day! That's right! I'm feeling like there's a ton of weight on my shoulders right now, with this dollar strength, and everyone jumping ship... But, I promised myself over a year ago that if I was able to fight cancer and come out on top, that I would celebrate each day... And that's what I try to do! So... I'll make it a Fantastico Friday after all! The euro's two-day rally VS the dollar got stuffed in a box and shipped to sea yesterday. The single unit looked as though it would add to the rally that took it above 1.45 but as I was signing off yesterday the euro was giving back its gains VS the dollar... And soon, it would give back more than the two-day rally's gains....
  • Currencies Rally On Bad U.S. Data...

    * Dollar rally is stopped! * FOMC meeting minutes... * Housing data you won't see on TV! * Sweden to sell Gold... ** Currencies Rally On Bad U.S. Data... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm back. I just couldn't answer the bell yesterday morning, as the night before was simply rough on your old Pfennig writer. I'm in my last week of treatment and it has been a tough row to hoe, and I feel bad that I was not able to stiffen the back and make it through the day. But, no biggie, I've got great people here to take care of things when I'm gone... When I finally dragged myself out of bed yesterday, I saw that the dollar was taking liberties with the euro and other currencies once again. It was another game of "your economy is worse than mine", as German Business Confidence took a ride on the slippery slope down. You should have seen the "bandwagon jumpers" falling all over themselves to write about how cool it was to own the dollar. I chuckled, no big laugh as that might upset my stomach! But, their claim to be cool, was quickly squashed like a bug, when the housing numbers printed, and then later in the day, with the latest FOMC meeting minutes... More on this in a minute.......
  • Dollar range bound...

    * Dollar range bound... * German confidence falls... * Aussie and NZD continue to slide... * US to maintain pressure on Chinese... ** Dollar range bound... Good day... Chuck had a rough night, so he decided to stay home and try to get some rest. The Pfennig will be pretty short this morning, as I want to try and get it out as close to the regular time as possible. The currency markets were fairly calm yesterday, with the dollar staying in a pretty tight range before rallying some in early trading this morning. The Euro has lost some ground in European trading as German business and consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast. The Ifo institute's business climate index dropped to a three year low in July and consumer sentiment slumped to the lowest level in five years. Some currency traders pointed to these latest reports as further proof Europe is slipping into recession and that the ECB will need to cut rates before year end. It is obvious by now that the economies of Europe are weakening, and growth will not be able to match last years numbers. But I still believe Trichet and the other voting members of the ECB will continue their hawkish bias, and I don't expect any interest rate moves until sometime next year. This should keep the Euro from falling dramatically away from these current levels....
  • More Awful Housing Data!

    * Existing Home Sales fall... * Foreclosures spike! * Euro rebounds... * Aussie dollar sees some weakness... ** More Awful Housing Data! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well... The touch of food poisoning I got ( I think) stayed with me most of the day yesterday. I did make it to my presentation with Addison Wiggin, but you should have seen me... I was a mess... But I got through it, stayed at the booth for an hour to talk to people and then headed back to the room to basically fall asleep until now... UGH! I have to say that I believe this conference to be the absolute best conference I have ever attended, and believe me, I've attended quite a few conferences in my time! We have talked to so many people that are genuinely interested, some that already completed their applications, and then there were the 100's of people that are already customers, wanting to know more! It has been a great conference!...
  • RBNZ Cuts Rates...

    * The dollar swings it mighty hammer! * Weekly Jobless Claims spike! * Exposing the debt in N.Z.... * The Fed's Beige Book is grim... ** RBNZ Cuts Rates... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's not so Thunderin' for me this morning, as I must have eaten something that didn't agree with me last night... Therefore I was up most the night sick... This will be ever so short-n-sweet, and then I'm going back to bed, I've got a presentation this afternoon with Addison Wiggin, I've got to be in tip-top shape for that! The dollar swung its mighty hammer again yesterday, bringing the euro to the 1.56 handle, with all the other usual suspects falling in line behind the euro. The markets are ga-ga with news that leads them to believe the "worst is over" in the credit crunch... I beg to differ on that, but then, I'm just one guy, one voice, one letter......
  • More Awful Data For The U.S!

    * Housing continues to rot... * Fed Officials warn the markets... * A new "junk bond" house... * David Galland's thoughts... **More Awful Data For The U.S! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A full day in meetings yesterday had me ready for the easy chair upon arriving home... The Celtics are NBA Champions for the 17th time, congrats to them and their fans, of which I was one as a kid, and through the Larry Bird era... Kind of lost track of the NBA over the years... Another full day of meetings on the docket for yours truly, can't wait! NOT! OK... The currencies really had a boring day yesterday... The bias was to sell dollars, but not by much. The euro gained a little, but has given it all back this morning. The data in the U.S. yesterday was weak if not awful, but the markets are still hanging by a moment on the Fed's rhetoric... Shoot Rudy, even the Financial Times is calling out the Fed and those that are getting carried away with thoughts of 75 BPS in rate hikes this year... The title of the FT article was... "Rate rise expectation overplayed, believe Fed officials"...
  • A Fantastico Friday!

    * Exiting Home Sales... * Chart talks... * A good week for Aussie! * Inflation talk......
  • US Housing Continues to Slump

    * US housing continues to slump... * FOMC to reverse course... * Nordic Banks help the Icelandic krona... * Carry trade weighs on the yen......
  • The Dollar Rallies!

    * All Major currencies lose ground... * Debasing the dollar... * Deficits DO Matter! * New Homes Sales are atrocious!...
  • The Euro Hits 1.60!

    * Noyer rains on the euro's parade... * Aussie hits a 24-year high! * Bank of Canada cuts 50 BPS! * George F. Will speaks!...
  • Housing Starts Still Collapsing!

    * Nearing an all-time drop in Housing... * Mishkin says rates can go lower... * Gold continues to recover... * Oil hits $115!...