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  • Germany's Merkel gets her way...

    In This Issue..

    * Germany's Merkel gets her way...
    * Confidence in the US ebbs lower...
    * China to stick to renminbi policy...
    * Gold stops sliding...

    Good day, we had another strong day for the dollar yesterday, with the greenback gaining against all of the majors. But overnight, the Asians and then the Europeans sold the dollar and moved money back into the currencies. So after another rollercoaster ride, we are basically right back where we were at this time yesterday morning. These volatile markets are likely to continue, as investors try to figure out if the global economy will recover or if we will slide back into recession. With all of this uncertainty, you would think investors would be moving into 'hard assets': Gold and Silver. But the markets for these two precious metals have been surprisingly quiet this year. More on the metals a bit later, first I will try to figure out these currency markets....
  • More Stimulus On The Way?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro leads currencies higher...
    * Commodities rally back on FOMC thoughts...
    * FOMC meeting today...
    * NZ Consumer Confidence on the rise...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday, the title of The Pfennig was: So Far... It's A Turn Around Tuesday! And... That theme played well throughout the day, and by day's end, it had been quite the Turn Around Tuesday! Now, we have to see what's in store for us today, as the last couple of weeks have seen the Wednesday trading quite the opposite of Tuesday's trading! Strange trading pattern don't you agree?

    Overnight, the euro climbed as high as 1.4140, only to sit at the cusp of 1.41 as I begin to write this morning. Of course 1.41 certainly looks a lot different from the 1.35-1.40 range we've seen in recent days. But then, we've seen these probes above 1.40 before only end with the euro falling back to the 1.35-1.40 range again......
  • Dollar range bound...

    * Dollar range bound... * German confidence falls... * Aussie and NZD continue to slide... * US to maintain pressure on Chinese... ** Dollar range bound... Good day... Chuck had a rough night, so he decided to stay home and try to get some rest. The Pfennig will be pretty short this morning, as I want to try and get it out as close to the regular time as possible. The currency markets were fairly calm yesterday, with the dollar staying in a pretty tight range before rallying some in early trading this morning. The Euro has lost some ground in European trading as German business and consumer confidence fell more than economists forecast. The Ifo institute's business climate index dropped to a three year low in July and consumer sentiment slumped to the lowest level in five years. Some currency traders pointed to these latest reports as further proof Europe is slipping into recession and that the ECB will need to cut rates before year end. It is obvious by now that the economies of Europe are weakening, and growth will not be able to match last years numbers. But I still believe Trichet and the other voting members of the ECB will continue their hawkish bias, and I don't expect any interest rate moves until sometime next year. This should keep the Euro from falling dramatically away from these current levels....
  • RBNZ Cuts Rates...

    * The dollar swings it mighty hammer! * Weekly Jobless Claims spike! * Exposing the debt in N.Z.... * The Fed's Beige Book is grim... ** RBNZ Cuts Rates... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's not so Thunderin' for me this morning, as I must have eaten something that didn't agree with me last night... Therefore I was up most the night sick... This will be ever so short-n-sweet, and then I'm going back to bed, I've got a presentation this afternoon with Addison Wiggin, I've got to be in tip-top shape for that! The dollar swung its mighty hammer again yesterday, bringing the euro to the 1.56 handle, with all the other usual suspects falling in line behind the euro. The markets are ga-ga with news that leads them to believe the "worst is over" in the credit crunch... I beg to differ on that, but then, I'm just one guy, one voice, one letter......
  • A Tale of Two Confidences...

    * Euro gets a boost! * High yielders are soaring again! * Existing Home Sales fall again... * Accepting euros......