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G-7 To Discuss Currencies?

In This Issue..

* The ball is in the dollar's court today...
* Aussie is unable to hold 14-month high...
* China and Eurozone print stronger PMI's
* Chock-full-o-data today...

Good day... Welcome to October! And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! No real reason to get Tub Thumpin', but I thought why not? The non-dollar currencies have given back their gains made yesterday to the dollar, in a game of what seems to be, give and take... A tennis match with the dollar, one day the ball is in the dollar's court, and the next day it's not! Really, kind of giving me a rash, watching this... I want some direction here!

So... When I turned on all my screens this morning, and then waited about 20 minutes for the new programs to be installed on them that the IT people left for the next time the computer started up... Hmmm, where was I? Oh! I was talking about when I first saw the currencies this morning... I saw that the euro had fallen back to 1.4560... And of course wanted to find out why...

...

Published 10-01-2009 1:23 PM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Currencies, China, Ben Bernanke, G7, Eurozone, Home Prices, Consumer Spending, Bank of America

U. of Michigan Spoils The Party...

In This Issue..

* Risk Aversion comes back strong!
* Risk assets get sold...
* What games will be played with TIC's?
* 40 years since Woodstock!

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A great weekend that was filled with watching my little buddy, Alex, play football, hosting a surprise 30th birthday party for my little girl, Dawn, and a sweep of the Padres by the Cardinals! This week gets cut short with me a the helm, as I head to San Francisco on Thursday. Chris will have the conn on the Pfennig Thursday through Monday.

Well... Who'd a thunk it? Yes, who would have thought that the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence could turn the markets upside down and spoil the party? Well... It happened on Friday! The U. of Michigan Confidence Survey for Aug unexpectedly dropped to 63.2, from the previous month's 66 level. The real drop though was from the forecast for this month which was 69! The drop brought the index to a five-month low....

Published 08-17-2009 9:57 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Oil, China, Consumer Confidence, GDP, TIC Flow, Home Prices, Risk Aversion, University of Michigan

House prices move up, but consumers still aren't confident...

In This Issue..

* House prices move up...
* US consumers are worried...
* Japanese retail sales drag...
* Australian rates to rise...

Good day... We finally had a bit of volatility in the currency markets yesterday, as conflicting data released in two separate reports moved the markets in opposite directions. The dollar started off the day drifting lower, as has been the pattern over the past 2 weeks. But during the late morning the dollar started gaining strength, and has barely paused its ascent overnight.

Many of you probably heard the news reports that home prices finally rose during the month of May, and this is what had the dollar on the ropes yesterday morning. The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index reported that home prices in the US rose ever so slightly in May compared to April. But if we look at the annual figures, home prices are still down just over 17% across the country. Media outlets trumpeted this 'feel good' story with many economists declaring that housing has now turned a corner. This is a good sign, as prices have to stabilize before the housing sector can recover, but it is hard to get overly excited about a 17% drop YOY. The monthly figure rose just .5%, reflecting the first monthly gain since July 2006. Another report showed the share of homes sold as foreclosures or otherwise distressed properties fell to about 31% in June, down from a high of 50% seen earlier this year. With unemployment still creeping up, and the US consumer continuing to save instead of spend, I am going to need to see a couple of months of stabilized prices before I am convinced housing is turning the corner here in the US....

Published 07-29-2009 10:01 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Employment, Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Japan, Durable Goods, Home Prices, India

A broken record...

In This Issue..

* Mixed bag of housing numbers...
* Foundation work...
* High yielders...
* Commodity currencies again...

Good day...and a Terrific Thursday to you. As Chris mentioned yesterday, I'll be steering the ship for the next couple of days while both he and Chuck are out so I look forward to being your relief captain. The fall like weather in the middle of summer has continued yet for another day in St. Louis, not that I'm complaining, but that out of the ordinary trend certainly hasn't carried over to the currency markets. In fact, I could probably cut and paste yesterday's Pfennig and you wouldn't miss a thing as the currencies traded in a very tight range, so there wasn't much exciting to report on...Oh well, instead of wasting space, I'll get right to it......

Published 07-23-2009 10:11 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, China, Deficit, Home Prices, Commodity Currencies, High Yield, Brazil, Housing, Health Care

The U.S. Treasury Moves The Goal Posts...

In This Issue..

* A 4-day rally gets stopped at the border...
* Home Prices fall at a -18.12% pace...
* Alice Rivlin gives her 2-cents...
* Kiwi bond maturities galore next month...

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! As tradition with the Pfennig would have it, here's my introduction to July... There I was... On a July morning... Looking for love... With the strength of a new day dawning, and... The beautiful sun...

Yes, for those 'old rockers' from the 70's like me... That's Uriah Heep, at their best!

OK... So, welcome to July! The last day of June was quite the volatile one to say the least! There we were waiting for the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index to print, and show that home prices were still down by quite a bit, when it did, it did, it printed at -18.12%... But! The media was all over that like a cheap suit, clamoring that the spiral down in Home Prices had come to and end! Which, may be true... But wouldn't you want to wait to see if next month's report confirms it? And... By the way... Since when does -18.12% fall in home prices beckon a rally? Yesterday, would be that answer!...

Published 07-01-2009 9:33 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: China, Euro, Consumer Confidence, New Zealand, Renminbi, Home Prices, Royal Bank of Scotland, Treasuries, BRIC, Alice Rivlin, George Soros

Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons Again!

In This Issue..

* Russia's Fin Min talks up the dollar!
* Currencies, commodities, stocks all lose ground...
* Who's car is uglier
* Gold hit a 3-week low...

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! How about that weekend? I actually didn't get a chance to experience much of it outside, but it sure looked great! We have new champions in basketball and hockey, so congrats to the Lakers and Penguins on their Championships! Now, the housecleaning is out of the way... It's time to get to the meat... Where's the beef? HA!...

Published 06-15-2009 11:20 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, China, Gold, Euro, Eurozone, TIC Flow, Home Prices, India, G8, Russia, Brazil, BRIC

Maybe, Just Maybe A Break In The Link?

In This Issue..

* Currencies consolidate...
* Brazil posts a surplus!
* Dr. Marc Faber speaks...
* High yielders rule!

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A very tight trading range day was in place yesterday for the currencies... In yet another sign that maybe, just maybe, because you never know, the currencies could be breaking their link to stocks... U.S. stocks jumped 196 points yesterday, and the currencies range traded... Hmmm....

Not that this will become a 'stock jockey journal'... Stocks jumped on the news that Consumer Confidence surged this month... Talk about looking at things through rose colored glasses! Any way, Consumer Confidence surged... Better to have blips in Confidence than to be all negative all the time I guess! I also guess the stock jockeys took what was behind door number 1 (consumer confidence) and not was what behind door number 2, which was the Case-Shiller House Price Index......

Published 05-27-2009 7:57 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Oil, Inflation, China, Gold, Consumer Confidence, South Africa, Renminbi, Home Prices, Treasuries, High Yield, Brazil, Marc Faber, North Korea

Dollar falls as US consumer confidence increases...

In This Issue..

* Dollar falls as US consumers become more positive...
* GDP to be reported this morning...
* European confidence increases...
* Mexican peso recovers...

Good day... Hopefully this will reach everyone today. We have been having some computer problems causing some major delays in the delivery of your Pfennig. As Chuck always says, if you need your Pfennig, just go to www.dailypfennig.com where it is posted each morning as soon as I hit the send button. For those of you who feel the need, the website also has an archive, so you can all read what I had to say yesterday. But enough about our email problems, you all want to know what is happening in the markets.

The dollar began the day trading in a fairly tight range, but a fairly large jump in US consumer confidence sent the US$ tumbling. Yes, the old 'opposite' trading pattern has begun again. When we have good news regarding the US and global economies, the US$ gets sold. But when the data is bad, the dollar is purchased as a safe haven. Yesterday both pieces of data released in the US were more positive than most economists expected, so the dollar gave back some of its recent 'safe haven' gains....

Published 04-29-2009 9:08 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Dollar, Recession, Gold, Euro, Consumer Confidence, GDP, Eurozone, Germany, FOMC, Home Prices, Mexico, Peso

Currencies Continue to Rally...

In This Issue..

* An auction announcement...
* Euro soars!
* Gold back to $900...
* Who's telling the truth?

Good day... And a Happy Friday to you! A Fantastico Friday to boot! I leave for Bermuda very early tomorrow morning, so no late night shenanigans for me tonight! HA! I'm still trying to make sure I've beaten that pneumonia, and being a "good boy"!

Well... Front and center this morning, we have a Big currency rally going on... Recall yesterday, I told you of the beginning of the rally... Well, it really got legs as the day went on, and once again, it was not sold off overnight, but added to! Here's what I believe, and you won't see this anywhere else, my friends, is moving these currencies so violently higher VS the dollar......

Published 04-24-2009 11:08 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Currencies, Silver, Gold, Home Sales, Euro, Norway, Sweden, Deficit, Bank of Canada, Home Prices, Merrill Lynch, Switzerland, Bank of America, Treasuries, Stress Test

The waiting game...

In This Issue..

* Waiting on G20 and the ECB...
* US home prices plunge...
* What will come from G20...
* ECB to cut rates, but no quantitative easing...

Good day... The markets will play a waiting game today, and I expect the currencies to trade in a pretty flat range. The focus will be on the G20 which starts tomorrow, and the ECB announcement which will also be released tomorrow. So today I will share my views on both of these topics, but first I will report on what occurred yesterday and overnight in the currency markets.

The dollar climbed yesterday morning as data released showed US home prices plunged at a record pace and consumer confidence continues to bottom. US home prices fell nearly 19% in January according to the S&P Case Shiller index. This was even worse than economists had predicted, and December's numbers were revised down....

Published 04-01-2009 10:15 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Employment, Dollar, Inflation, China, Gold, Euro, Consumer Confidence, European Central Bank, GDP, Home Prices, G20, Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama

The Treasury Secretary rides to the rescue...

In This Issue..

* Geithner rescues the stock market...
* Commercial real estate, the next big drag...
* Norway: the new safe haven...
* China pushes for a new reserve currency...

It was a dramatic day on Wall Street yesterday, with the major stock indexes surging as much as 6 percent, including the Dow Jones which jumped more than 400 points. The reason for all of this euphoria on Wall Street? A combination of Geithner's plan to rescue the banks from the toxic debt in which many are mired, and a surprisingly large uptick in existing home sales. I touched briefly on the Giethner plan in yesterday's Pfennig and readers know I am more than a little skeptical about its possible success.

But the housing numbers really caught me off guard. Existing home sales jumped a tremendous 5.1% in February, clearly above all expectations. But Chuck pointed out that the almost 1/2 of the sales were either foreclosures or short sales, hardly what you would call a 'rebound' in home sales! And these additional existing home sales came at deep discounts. The median price for an existing home fell 15.5% in February 2009 to $165,400 as compared to $195,800 in February of 2008....

Published 03-24-2009 9:58 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: China, Home Sales, Canada, Norway, Home Prices, Timothy Geithner, Quantitative Easing, Commercial Real Estate

High yeilders continue to rally...

In This Issue...

* High yeilders continue to rally...
* Quantitative easing drives the markets...
* Inventories to drive inflation...
* Happy Birthday Chuck...

Good day... I'm back from a long vacation with the family down in Florida, I had a great time but it actually feels good to get back to work. But before I get started this morning, I want to compliment Mike on what a fantastic job he did on the Pfennigs while Chuck and I were in Florida. Mike jumped right in and cranked out some great information, setting the bar rather high for me. We have a busy week ahead of us, so better get right to it.

Currency investors continued to pull out of the dollar and move funds back into higher yielding currencies on Friday. The best performing currencies on Friday were the higher yielding commodity based currencies of Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa. Investors were eager to move money back into the higher interest rates available in these currencies as markets began to stabilize. With the Feds announcement last week that it will buy $300 billion of US government bonds, deflation is now a thing of the past. This purchase by the Fed monetizes the debt, basically pumping the cash directly into the markets. It is the most inflationary action the Fed can take, Bernanke has now put the printing presses in high gear. With deflation no longer a worry, commodity currencies have begun to look attractive again....

Published 03-23-2009 8:47 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, China, Ben Bernanke, The Fed, Home Prices, Timothy Geithner, Treasuries, Toxic Assets

A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries?

* The euro gets some wind in its sails... * Citigroup is seeking more bailout funds? * Gold hits $1,000! * The ghost of Humphrey-Hawkins... ** A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries? Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Sure seems as though I went from Friday to Monday, as I went out of town this past weekend, and before I knew it, I was driving to work this morning! UGH! There was a rumor on Friday that really sent the euro higher, and there was another rumor this past weekend about the Asian currencies... So... Let's look at those two items and more of course, as we begin the last week of February!...

Published 02-23-2009 10:32 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Bonds, China, Gold, Euro, Ben Bernanke, Swiss franc, Citigroup, Eurozone, Home Prices, European Union, Humphrey-Hawkins

Another FOMC Day....

* Currencies rally... * Davos begins... * A new and improved stimulus plan! * Happy Birthday, Chris! ** FOMC Day.... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A very cold and snowy Wednesday here in St. Louis. I got caught behind the line of snow plows this morning, and it too me what seemed like for-ev-er to get here! Oh well, I'm here, so let's get going, eh? Well... The currencies saw some profit taking yesterday, only rebound overnight, which seems to be the recent pattern... The overnight markets participants drive the euro and other currencies higher, and the U.S. market participants sell the euro and other currencies... Makes you want to side with the overnight markets participants, eh? Oh well, the euro is trading with a 1.3255 look to it this morning, as I turn on the screens......

Published 01-28-2009 9:19 PM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, China, Consumer Confidence, FOMC, Renminbi, Home Prices, Timothy Geithner, Stimulus, World Economic Forum, Davos

"The Cheater" Speaks...

* Currencies rally... * IFO unexpectedly rises... * Norway looks good... * Gold hits $900 again! ** The Cheater Speaks... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! We received the snow and ice they forecast, but the drive in to the office was no biggie, so the street crews did a fair job, I would say... We'll see when I head into the city for my radiation this morning... Hey! What a day for the currencies yesterday! Geez Louise, it's seems like it's been a month of Sundays since I could say that! And there's been follow up overnight, although, I do believe I'm seeing some profit taking right now... I went to radiation yesterday with the euro trading around 1.2965... I came back 2 hours later, and it was 1.31! And it didn't stop there, trading up to 1.3175, but running into a wall of resistance there... But that was temporary, as the overnight market pushed the single unit higher to 1.3250... It did trade all the way up to 1.33 and change on news that the German Business Confidence, as measured by the think tank IFO, unexpectedly rose for the first time in 8 months. This improvement was a result of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates......

Published 01-27-2009 8:50 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, China, Gold, Home Sales, Iceland, Norway, Germany, Renminbi, Home Prices, Timothy Geithner

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