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Beware The Thin Markets...

* ADP prints a huge downside surprise! * Euros get past 1.58... * A Perfect Storm? * Gold continues its move higher! ** Beware The Thin Markets... Good day... And a Happy pseudo-Friday to one and all! It is actually Thursday of course, but it's our Friday, as tomorrow is the 4th of July holiday here in the U.S. I think a lot about the Declaration of Independence these days, as I feel there is a faction of people here in the U.S. that would like to tear up the constitution... So, as we come to the day we celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence let's stop and remember that it's WE THE PEOPLE that make a difference in this country, certainly not anything that comes out of Washington D.C.! OK, I'm down from my soapbox... This could really be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as it has the potential to really kick some rear and take names later. Here's what I'm talking about......

Published Thu, Jul 07 2008 8:08 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, Jobs, Renminbi

What's Up With The Loonie?

* Euro trading pattern... * Sterling backs off... * Data cupboard gets restocked... * Rupees disappoint... **What's Up With The Loonie? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hit all my traffic lights on green this morning, so it's going to be a "good day"! Funny how little things like that put a smile on my face... OK... Another day of watching the euro rise up to 1.5815 and then see it get sold back below the 1.58 figure when the NY boys arrive at their desks. The pattern for the first two days this week has seen that selling in the morning, and then a slow rise in the afternoon, and then back over 1.58 in the overnight markets. That's where we are again this morning......

Published Wed, Jul 07 2008 8:25 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, British Pound, Gold, Euro, Canada, Jobs

BIS Disses The Dollar!

* Euro & Aussie on the rise... * Yen continues to rise on stock sell off... * Another depressing warning... * Gold takes off! **BIS Disses The Dollar! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! June the 30th... I had a fabulous weekend, with a Cardinals' win Saturday night to top it off! I'm waiting for news from the blood doctor on my latest ultra sound on my leg. And my goofy car is acting up again! UGH! But... Not even that kind of stuff could ruin my weekend! OK... Front and Center this morning, we have the euro climbing above 1.58, and the Aussie dollar hitting a 25-year high! The dollar is getting sold again, as the negativity toward the dollar grows strong again. We also have The Bank for International Settlement (BIS) talking about how a disorderly decline in the dollar can't be ruled out completely, while U.S. Treasury Sec. Paulson is talking about how a strong dollar is a good thing for the U.S....

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 8:41 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Euro, Yen, European Central Bank

Fundamentals Rule!

* Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 8:58 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Inflation, Gold, European Central Bank, Japan, The Fed, Stocks, Warren Buffett

"Somewhat Receded"?

* Fed leaves rates unchanged... * A dovish tone to the Fed... * Dollar Bulls run for the hills! * Norway raises rates... ** "Somewhat Receded"? Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... If you are a non-dollar owner, you might want to quickly go to the currency round-up to check on your currency / currencies... The Fed left rates unchanged and were quite dovish in their statement, and the dollar has been sent to the woodshed... Welcome back! Front and Center this morning, we have a currency rally going on, with the euro leading the dogs off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. The single unit has pushed past the 1.57 handle this morning, and the high yielders of Aussie, kiwi, and Brazil are all dancing in the streets because their positive rate differentials are even more in the face of traders now....

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 10:39 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Gold, New Zealand, Interest Rates, The Fed, Norway, Renminbi

Dollar's Mini-rally ends...

* Record iron ore price! * Ben Stein in the Pfennig! * Top 11 currency returns... * Mogambo on Gold... ** Dollar's Mini-rally ends... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The dollar's mini-rally yesterday stalled overnight, and once again the dollar bulls are having to cover euro shorts they put on. Yes, they NOW believe the Fed will not come through on it's claim to be an inflation fighter, and leave rates unchanged. That will keep the positive yield differential in the euro's favor (well, it would have anyway, but it keeps it unchanged). Remember though, who called out Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke when he said early this month that the "falling dollar had caused an unwelcome increase in inflation, and that he was "attentive" to the problem." Hogwash, said I!...

Published Tue, Jun 06 2008 9:15 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Gold, Ben Bernanke, The Fed, Icelandic Krona, Renminbi, Mogambo, Iron Ore, Ben Stein

Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric...

* More dollar strength... * Retail Sales surprise... * SARB raises rates! * Gold on the slippery slope... **Questioning The Fed's Rhetoric... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It will be a Fantastico Friday (Hopefully) for the boys and girls in the St. Louis office, as we head to Busch Stadium tonight for a Cardinals baseball game... We even have a special guest that will be with us, so party on Wayne... Party on Garth! Well... Things went a little crazy on the desk while I was away yesterday... When I returned home last night, I had a ton of emails from the Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and that's usually a sign that things didn't go well! Frank plays hockey on Friday mornings, and said he will call me to bring me up to date on his way to hockey......

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 9:10 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Gold, The Fed, Citigroup, Retail Sales, FOMC