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  • Coordinated Rate Cuts!

    * Yen trades to 98! * Carry Trades unwinding hurt high yielders... * Gold rallies back to $900! * Central Bank rate cuts.... ** Coordinated Rate Cuts! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... There's a ton of stuff to talk about today, one of which is the amazing run that Japanese yen has had in the past month, but particularly the last week! No need to sneak a peak at the currency round-up, Japanese yen is trading 98.80! WOW! I could be acting like a contortionist and trying to slap myself on the back, but that would unprofessional... And besides, the rest of the currencies are taking shots to the mid-section. Anyway... Blow the horn, the Carry Trade (for yen) is dead, may it rest in peace! OK... The currencies tried like all get out yesterday to rally VS the dollar, the euro did end the day 1% higher on the day, which after the bloodshed of the past month, I'll take that any old time! I would love to go back to 2005 (not really, but for this conversation's sake I will) and pull out some old Pfennigs where I talked about all the naysayers talking about a break up of the euro... We had the NO votes from France and Denmark on accepting the European Union's (EU) Constitution, we had riots in the streets of France, we had rising interest rates in the U.S. and dozens and dozens of naysayers called out the euro and said it would collapse under the weight. I said then, and I'll say now... HOGWASH!...
  • Iceland Melts Down...

    * RBA cuts rates 100 BPS! * Iceland to peg the krona... * High Yielders get whacked! * Gold rallies in the face of a strong dollar! ** Iceland Melts Down... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Folks... The wheels, what was left of them, are really coming off this economy. It's a sad sight to see, but it's happening nonetheless, and there's no bailout, stimulus check, mortgage bill, truck loads of money supply, or whatever, that's going to stop this recession bus.. Memo to Paulson and Bernanke... Don't throw yourself under this recession bus... Well... The dollar continued to push the envelope against a handful of currencies yesterday. Up front and center, the high yielders got beaten about the head and shoulders by the dollar. Aussie, kiwi, real, rand, all took major hits from the dollar. It was one of the worst days I can remember seeing for these currencies. This huge sell off showed two things going against the high yielders... 1. Commodities (other than Gold) are getting whacked, and 2. The Carry Trade is Dead......
  • King Henry Was Wrong Again!

    * Bailout package is voted down! * Biggest one day point drop for the DOW! * Dollar rallies hard... * Carry trades unwind... Again! ** King Henry Was Wrong Again! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... Guess who was wrong AGAIN! That's right, King Henry Paulson, he of the U.S. Treasury Sec. throne... He told the world on Friday, that the bailout package was a "done deal"... And he told us again on Sunday that it was a "done deal"... The markets rejoiced, the stock jockeys danced in the streets, the karma flowed and all the stars were in alignment... And then... A (not so) funny thing happened on the way to the forum... King Henry's men revolted, and the bailout package did NOT have the votes to pass it, and the "done deal" was "undone"! Once again this man has led investors down the wrong path. I've documented the wrong statements by this man in the past year, and still, investors hang on every word by King Henry... When will they ever learn? When, will, they, ev-er learn?...
  • Some Healing...

    * largest one-day move up in the euro! * largest one-day move up in Oil! * Gold and Silver rebound! * Renminbi finally moves! ** Some Healing... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I heard from one of my two sisters that live in the Houston area yesterday. They rode out the Hurricane together, have some damage to her house, and is still without electricity. I can't imagine what that's all like. But they are both safe at that's what's important at this point. Well... The euro had it's largest one-day move upward VS the dollar since its inception in 1999, yesterday... We've seen some profit taking in the overnight markets, but just for good measure... I think it appropriate to show that the euro reached 1.48 yesterday... That was a 3.5 euro move, and after falling to a low of 1.3869 on 9/12 (before bouncing big that day), the euro has now recovered about 7%... I would call that "some healing"......
  • Paulson and Bernanke ride to the rescue...

    * Paulson and Bernanke ride to the rescue... * More debt for the US taxpayer... * Emerging markets rally... * Congrats to EverBank Soccer Greats... ** Paulson and Bernanke ride to the rescue... Ahoy thar maties.. Yesterday was a very volatile day in what has become an incredibly choppy week. The currency and metals markets began the day rallying vs. the dollar as it seemed yet another huge financial firm was circling the bowl. But late in the afternoon the dollar came charging back, and gold fell back below $850 after surpassing $900, ARRGH! So what caused this quick reversal? Senator Schumer was credited with turning the markets around. He announced, mid afternoon, that the Federal Reserve and Treasury were going to create a new government institution which would purchase all of the toxic debt instruments being held by Wall Street. Wall Street obviously thought this was just a fantastic idea, and the stock market immediately rallied, taking the dollar with it. The details of the plan still aren't available, but the markets have been desperately searching for a hero to come and rescue them, so even the hint of a rescue was enough to shoot stocks back up. The proposal currently being discussed in congress involves moving troubled assets from the balance sheets of American financial companies into a new government backed institution. The SEC also instituted a ban on short selling of financial stocks, copying a similar ban which was instituted yesterday in London. Chuck had a travel day yesterday as the FXU moved from San Diego to Dallas, but he was keeping an eye on the markets and sent me this last night....
  • Sanity returns to the currency market...

    * Sanity returns to the currency market... * Chucks thoughts from San Diego... * CDS market explanation... * Swiss central bank to leave rates unchanged... ** Sanity returns to the currency market... Good day...Wow! What a day it was yesterday on the currency/metals desk here at EverBank. Finally, some sanity returned to the markets as investors moved out of their dollar holdings and into both currencies and metals. Gold was up over $80 yesterday, and continues to climb this morning. The Aussie dollar was up over 2%, climbing back above .80 cents and the Euro climbed back above $1.45. The dollar was up pretty much across the board, making for a very busy day here on the desk. Chuck also had a great day down in San Diego with FXU. He sent me the following late last night which he asked me to share with you....
  • A Huge Data Week...

    * Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...
  • Dollar's Mini-rally ends...

    * Record iron ore price! * Ben Stein in the Pfennig! * Top 11 currency returns... * Mogambo on Gold... ** Dollar's Mini-rally ends... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The dollar's mini-rally yesterday stalled overnight, and once again the dollar bulls are having to cover euro shorts they put on. Yes, they NOW believe the Fed will not come through on it's claim to be an inflation fighter, and leave rates unchanged. That will keep the positive yield differential in the euro's favor (well, it would have anyway, but it keeps it unchanged). Remember though, who called out Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke when he said early this month that the "falling dollar had caused an unwelcome increase in inflation, and that he was "attentive" to the problem." Hogwash, said I!...
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    * The dollar's mini-rally fades... * Weekly jobless claims jump to 407K! * Swiss inflation rises! * Final Four weekend!...
  • Another Dollar Rout...

    * Euro hits 1.52! * Bernanke "endorses" a weak dollar! * Jimmy Rogers on a Fantastico Friday... * A perfect storm for the dollar......