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  • German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies move back and forth...
    * A HUGE hickey for us from Fannie and Freddie...
    * The Chinese respond to Geithner...
    * Canada GDP to reach pre-recession levels?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, day one of me basically by myself this week is put in the books... A non-event... A dentist appointment was all the excitement I had last night!

    Well... That risk assets rally that we were watching yesterday morning, ran into a speed bump around noon... Yes, the euro was nearing 1.23, Aussie was looking as though it would touch 87-cents, and so on... But then along came Moodys... Talk about bad timing! Ok... Let me set this up for you...

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  • Another roller coaster day in the US...

    In This Issue..

    * Another roller coaster day in the US...
    * TIC data shows China and Japan losing their appetite...
    * Eurozone members support Greece...
    * Precious metals rise...

    Good day... We had a pretty busy day in the currency markets yesterday, with the dollar rising sharply in the morning only to sell off again after lunch. The selling continued in Asian trading, and the dollar index is back down to levels it was at this time yesterday morning. These roller coaster rides will probably continue as the markets just don't seem to know where to take the currencies. Short term moves will continue to be exaggerated, but the long term dollar continues to be in place.

    As I pointed out yesterday, this is a very busy week for data here in the US, and yesterday started us off with a bang. The volatile Empire manufacturing number showed a slight tick up but pretty much came in where it was expected. The more important Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers followed, and both confirmed the US economy is continuing to recover; albeit at a slow pace. Industrial production increased .1% in February, and Capacity Utilization also increased to 72.7%. This data got the day started off right for dollar bulls, and the greenback shot up.

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  • German Investor Confidence Fades...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies on weak German data...
    * Stronger overall data for the U.S. last week...
    * JAL files bankruptcy and yen rallies...
    * Bank of Canada meets today...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I hope you all had the opportunity to enjoy a 3-day weekend... I realize that not everyone has the opportunity, so I don't want to sound like I'm rubbing it in... It's really foggy outside this morning. I live in a little river town outside of St. Louis, and we get fog there all the time, but once I cross the river, it dissipates quickly... But not this morning, the fog was with me all the way to work! Something right out of an old-time horror movie with Lon Chaney...

    Well... Yesterday, I was doing quite a bit of reading, after suffering 'football overload', which by the way, were not very good games... Sure, good for the winning teams' fans, but I didn't have a dog in any of those fights, so I just wanted to see a good game, only to be disappointed... OK, now back to my reading...

    I was reading a good, thoughtful story about how currency swings could be dying down, as we return to fundamentals... You know, me... I jumped from my chair, and click my heels together in joy! OK, no, I'm not physically able to do that any longer, so I did it in my mind! But a return to fundamentals? I'm all over that like a cheap suit! One of the fundamentals that the story highlighted that would be taken into consideration by traders, would be interest rate differentials... Which, I've always considered to be a strong reason to own a currency, but not the 'end-all'......
  • The Markets Ignore Bernanke...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar continues to get bought...
    * German Investor Confidence weakens...
    * The Carry Trade shifts to Japan again...
    * More deficit spending...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Not a Terrific Tuesday for the non-dollar currencies though, as the overnight markets have marked them down once again, and favored the dollar... More on that in a minute... I got a chance to meet up with some old friends and co-workers last night, at a holiday party... I had to leave early though, my leg couldn't stand that long... UGH!

    OK... The daily noise, has the bias to buy going toward the dollar this morning... For some unknown reason, and I emphasize this here... The markets are not listening to Big Ben Bernanke, when he says that current near zero interest rates will remain for 'some time to come'... You see, the markets are under the impression that he's giving us a head fake, and will raise rates aggressively very soon, for the data that has printed recently is of the "need to raise interest rates before inflation takes the economy hostage" kind of stuff......
  • German ZEW Underpins The Euro...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on tariff news...
    * Norway's election doesn't move krone...
    * Canada's Gov't problems to hurt loonies?
    * 1-year since Lehman Bros...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, just as I suspected yesterday in the Pfennig, when the U.S. traders came in and got word of the new Chinese tariffs on tires, the dollar got sold like re-mastered box sets of Beatles albums! So, we've got that to talk about, and some other items I'd like to discuss... So, here we come Terrific Tuesday!

    OK... Well, just as I stated above, the U.S. traders didn't care for the new tariff, feeling that it would project a trade war, and therefore sold the dollar. The Big Dog, euro, traded to 1.4635 by mid-day... There was some profit taking late in the day, which brought the euro back to below 1.46, but then this morning, the euro got another boost from a report on German Investor Confidence, to bring it back to 1.46, as I write......
  • German Investor Confidence Soars!

    In This Issue..

    * ZEW says Germany is on the mend...               
    * UK inflation remains higher than expected...         
    * Safe Haven, what safe haven?                              
    * Housing data remains soft...                                                                     

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I received an injection of steroids into my left knee yesterday, and already today, I can tell that they are working their magic! I guess I'll have to give up my plans to try out for the Cardinals next year, now! HA! So, my knee is recovering from 3-weeks of agonizing pain and swelling... I've got that going for me!

    And the currencies seem to be recovering this morning too, from the recent go around in the ring with the risk aversion campers. The currencies (except yen), were last seen yesterday up against the rope, doing their best imitation of the rope-a-dope.

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  • German Investor Confidence Is On The Rise...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies stop the dollar's run...
    * BRIC meeting could get ugly for the dollar...
    * RBA meeting notes good for Aussie dollars...
    * Depressing data / forecasts for housing...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Thundering storms moved through here this morning, as I was preparing to leave home and drive to the office. As slow as I am with getting around these days, I got pretty wet from my car to the office building. But, I didn't melt, as most would have thought! HA! And, I'll dry out soon enough... Well before anyone else comes in!

    OK... Well... When I left you yesterday, the dollar was on a rampage, from the comments by the Russian Finance Minister, Kudrin... Was it an overreaction, I asked? A resounding YES was my answer... I think the proof is in the pudding on that this morning, as the dollar buying has hit a roadblock, and reversed overnight, with the euro gaining back about 1%......
  • Currencies Bounce Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Assets soar!
    * German Investor Confidence surprises!
    * High yielders kicking tail...
    * Who's afraid of the SNB?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Finally! Spring has arrived and for more than one day at a time here in St. Louis! YAHOO! A very cold and wet spring for us, brought us to the middle of May before normal spring weather was upon us... Good things come to those who are patient, right?

    OK... Speaking of patience... I think that's what we'll all have to possess a lot of going forward with these currencies and stocks... Here's what I'm talking about... Yesterday morning it looked as though the recent rally in stocks was over, complete, pack up the bags, get on the bus, Gus... And with the trading theme of throwing all risk assets in the same bag and trading them alike that's been in place since last July, this would seem to be a nail in the coffin of the currency rally we've seen going on since March 1st.......