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  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • Risk Aversion Is Back!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bashing is back!
    * Canadian GDP jumps to 6.1%!
    * RBA keeps rates unchanged
    * 7-U.S. cities have 'junk debt'...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And welcome to June! As Pfennig tradition would have it... June is busting out all over, all over the meadows and the hill! Buds're bustin' outta bushes, And the rompin' river pushes, Ev'ry little wheel that wheels beside the mill! And you thought I was just a 'rock-n-roller!'

    Well... Yesterday while we were honoring the fallen soldiers of today and yesteryear, the Europeans were knocking the stuffing out of the euro once again... This time, it was a story that spread like wildfire regarding the Eurozone economy not being able to have strong growth, because of all their austerity measures... Now... Come on boys! First you slam the euro's fingers in the door (OUCH!) for not cutting deficit spending in a few countries, and when they do show a willingness to cut deficit spending, you the ruler out and smack the euro right across the wrist!

    ...
  • U.S. States In Deep Trouble!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... A Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hope your Tuesday was Terrific! Day one with just my little buddy Alex and me at home went off without a hitch... I took him to the jazz guitar teacher, and he sounded great! He auditions for the high school jazz band on Thursday. He'll be just a freshman, so it will be quite the uphill battle for him to make the band in his first try... But... He's so darn good!

    Well... I have to say front and center this morning, that while it may have taken the currency traders 1/2 day to realize that Australia had raised rates, to finally begin to push the A$ higher VS the green/peachback... I was beginning to think yesterday that I was going to have to have egg all over my face again, when the A$ didn't respond right away... But it was all right on the night, so it's no egg on the face for me!...
  • RBA Hikes Rates!

    In This Issue..

    * A long history of dollar moves...
    * Canadian GDP jumps 5%...
    * U.S. Traders didn't like the Greece package...
    * Getting out of Dodge...

    Good day... Well... I'm back in the saddle! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It didn't take long for me to get the emails started telling me how wrong I am again... WOW! Of course, I wonder where these people have been the last 9 years, as when 9 years ago I was the first writer to issue a white paper calling for the long term down trend for the dollar... Or, in 2002, when everyone was writing off the euro, I wrote the white paper, 'The Year of The euro'... Or in, 2005, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me... Or, in 2008, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro... But not me...

    Is this time different? I doubt it... Lose value for 6 more months? In my opinion yes... But then returning to the underlying weak dollar trend. Look folks, if you really think that by sending me emails telling me I'm wrong, and I'm stupid, and everything else, that I'm going to change my mind on this... Then you might as well stop! Or... Start writing that great American, NOT! George Soros, and tell him how great he is......
  • Governor Stevens and the RBA surprises the markets...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar slides as risk returns...
    * RBA surprises the markets...
    * Gold moves higher...
    * Obama offers up record deficits...

    Good day... And a happy Ground Hog day to everyone! Yes, today is the day Phil decides if we are going to have more winter weather or a quick spring. While I can find something to like during all of the seasons, I do find myself hoping we see a quick end to the cold weather as we turn the calendar over to February. Unfortunately, the folks who make a living predicting the weather don't believe we will get an early spring this year, but their record is about as good as Groundhog Phil's, so we will just have to wait to see what Mother Nature brings us. Kristin and I will be joining Chuck down in Orlando tomorrow, so hopefully a few days of warm weather will hold me over until April....
  • RBA Raises Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion boosts dollar...
    * U.S. manufacturing is strong...
    * More stimulus? Please say it ain't so Joe!
    * Thoughts from the Big Boss!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I'm here! Just when you thought I would be gone for the week, and you would get away from my rants, and get the calm Chris Gaffney, the rug gets pulled out from you! I am so bummed! I was told that I could not travel to Cabo for the Sovereign Society's Offshore Advantage Conference, and I was to remain at home, with my leg up, blah, blah, blah... What a crock!

    OK, now that we've got that out of the way... Front and Center this morning, we have a very strong dollar rally going on... It began yesterday mid-morning, when things turned on one thin dime. First, we had the U.S. Manufacturing Index rise in September and the Trading Theme kicked in with the dollar getting sold on the good news for the economy... But then a strange thing happened on the way to the forum. Everyone began to fear what's been going on in Banking... Friday, the 115th bank failed this year, and suddenly, traders, investors, hedge fund dudes, and everyone else, got a case of the flu... Not the 'pandemic' H1N1 flu... This is the 'chicken flu'... Chicken to continue to takes risks in the face of a banking problems... Well, to think of it, maybe, just maybe, it's not the 'chicken flu' but the 'prudent flu'!...
  • Riksbank Holds Off On QE...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * German Investor Confidence rises!
    * Thoughts from Jim Rogers...
    * Kohn on the economy...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm staring at all this white space on the Pfennig template, and I absolutely drew a blank... I couldn't think of, or can't think of a thing to say! Whoa there partner! That can't happen! There's got to be something, anything, to talk about... OK! I'm back now, I really have no idea where that was going, it was an out of body experience! HAHAHAHA!

    OK... The currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, after the dollar had ambushed them on Friday and in the Sunday night trading sessions. It's been a week since we saw currency strength, other than Japanese yen. So, we should be due for a bounce. There continues to be more whispering about the eventual dollar weakness, but for now, it's not enough to get us back to where the dollar should be trading on a fundamentals basis....
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * RBA cuts 25 BPS...
    * Eurozone recession deepens...
    * Oil backs off...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! OK... I'll get to Opening Day in the Big Finish today, first, and foremost, I need to tell you about a guy that really threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, causing a BIG scare and sell off of risk assets... Currencies that is...

    His name is Mike Mayo, and he used to work at Deutsche Bank, and now is a banking analyst at Caylon Securities... And brother can he ever move a market! To make a long story short... Mr. Mayo basically said yesterday in a report that 'Bank Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels'... So, all that James Brown, feeling good, that went on last week with the G-20 singing everything is beautiful, all went down the drain after Mr. Mayo spoke......
  • RBA Surprises The Markets!

    * Everything but Treasuries trades heavily... * Fundamentally speaking on Australia... * Bank of Canada to cut rates today... * Tell me your story... ** RBA Surprises The Markets! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... The BIG NEWS this morning comes to us from down under, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised the markets and left rates unchanged for the first time in 7 months... Now, that's the horse of a different color! How dare they? How could they? Why everybody is doing it, Where do they get off thinking they didn't have to? Ahhh, grasshopper... The RBA continues to shine in my eyes as the best run Central Bank in the world, and this is one of the reasons why... Yes, they could have gone with the rest of the crowd, and cut rates to the bone, but why stoke inflation? Now, having said all that... It doesn't mean the RBA won't cut rates again in the future... It just means that they were being prudent, and taking a step back to see what their previous rate cuts had done to the economy, and how the economy would be affected by them. So, the proverbial "pause for the cause"... But, I believe it to be warranted, given the RBA had cut 400 BPS away from their once lofty rate in 7 rate cuts......