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Have You Seen This?

  • 2nd QTR GDP Today...

    In This Issue..

    * A flat trading day in currencies...

    * 473,000 newly unemployed last week...

    * Kan ready to take "bold action"...

    * Ludwig von Mises on a Friday!

    ...
  • China Is Number 2!

    In This Issue..

    * Retail Sales Are Soft...

    * TIC data today...

    * A$ hangs on to 89...

    * Gold adds another $6...

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    ...
  • Euro Rally Fizzles Out...

    * Yen continues to kick! * Jim Rogers disses sterling... * China's 4th QTR GDP... * Singapore announces stimulus... ** Euro Rally Fizzles Out... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! A nasty day in the currencies yesterday, except Japan of course. The Dow jumped 290 points yesterday, maybe an Obama bounce? You all know that I subscribe to an Obama bounce for stocks and the dollar in the first part of this year... But given what I know about, and what you now know about, after I drew it all out yesterday, the additions to the deficit that Obama will make, the focus on the fundamentals should return by late spring, early summer... That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! Well... As I said in the opening, the currencies led by the Big Dog, euro, suffered through a nasty trading day, with the euro touching below 1.29 for a good part of the day. The risk takers are nowhere to be found. Where have all the risk takers gone... Long time passing... A Reuters reporter asked me yesterday if I was still of the opinion that the yen had more to rally or was it overbought? I said, that as long as the risk takers are nowhere to be found, yen should continue on its path higher VS the dollar, euro and sterling. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) for yen, shows that it is a tad overbought, but that's not enough to change my mind. Nor is it enough to change the mind of a currency trader at the Bank of New York (BONY), who believes yen may rise to 85 VS the dollar by midyear... Another currency trader at the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) believes the Bank of Japan will step in and intervene to stem the yen's rise.......
  • The Obama Bounce Begins...

    * The dollar bounces! * ISM was simply awful! * Oil rallies... * Jobs Jamboree this Friday... ** The Obama Bounce Begins... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend of football! And there's more this week with the College National Championship Game on Thursday, and then more playoff games next weekend. Crazy time of year for the sport, for sure! So... The Christmas Tree decorations came off yesterday, along with some of the house decorations. My beautiful bride doesn't like to leave that stuff up for long, but for me, I would leave it up all year long! Well... Although, technically, it's still the Christmas season (it doesn't end until Jan. 11), the Santa rally that pushed the euro to 1.45, has gone away, and we're on to the next phase, which I drew out for you over a week ago... And that is... The Obama bounce... This is something we'll have to deal with for the next few months. It all began with a huge stock rally on Friday, and that won't be the last one during the Obama bounce....
  • An Aussie Rate Cut!

    * Dollar rally continues... * Eurozone data prints weak... * Oil sees a HUGE drop! * WAKE UP, China! ** An Aussie Rate Cut! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm shaking my head this morning and wondering what its going to take to get this dollar rally stopped before it gets out of hand, and the exports get killed once again. And if the exports get killed, the Current Account Deficit begins to swell again, and so on and so on. This dollar strength is not good for our economy at this stage, but that's what we have, and I'm wondering who wrote the book of love! I recall the last time we saw the dollar smokin' hot like this, 2005... I sure hope the nasty emails to me don't start again... You should have seen some of these emails, they would embarrass a sailor! OK, that's just a saying, I'm not picking on sailors! You have to say these disclaimers or else there will be someone that gets upset and fires off a nasty email. What's happened in society that email has allowed people to say things they would never say to someone's face? It's brought out the Mr. Hyde in people, for sure!...
  • US$ saved by oil...

    * US$ saved by oil... * US Recession? (not according to Paulson)... * New Zealand worst performer in July... * Big Mac Index says buy Asia... ** US$ saved by oil... Good day...And welcome to August. The markets had a little more movement yesterday as the US GDP report came in lower than expected, and had a hidden surprise for dollar bears (more on that later). In addition to the poor GDP numbers, Personal consumption dropped and the GDP Price Index also showed a decrease. The employment cost index was flat, and the weekly jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 448k. More Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week than at any time in more than five years. The only positive piece of data released in the US yesterday was the volatile (and somewhat unreliable) Chicago Purchasing Managers number which showed an increase back above 50. With all the bad data, the dollar sold off rather sharply and the Euro jumped a full cent to trade over 1.57 for a short while. But the dollar bears didn't celebrate for long, as the dollar sharply reversed course as crude oil prices rode to its rescue. As I explained earlier in the week, the price of crude oil and the US$ have had a very tight relationship lately, with a correlation of .9. Just after the dollar fell due to the GDP releases, crude oil began a sharp $3 drop and saved the US$ from further losses. The price of oil has continued to slide, and is now down over 11% in the past month. This has helped prop the dollar up in spite of a number of poor economic reports here in the US....
  • An Upgrade For Brazil!

    * Kohn gives the wink and nod... * GDP is revised up to .09% * Dollar Bulls dancing in the streets... * Oil prices fall......