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  • Retail Sales Disappoint! – 7/15/10

    In This Issue..

    * China's GDP moderates...
    * Spain has successful bond auction...
    * Fed's FOMC minutes disappoint...
    * euro returns to 1.28!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's July the 15th, so the month is already half-over... Unbelievable! Day 80-something with the Oil leak... I know the Russian scientists' claims about the Gulf sea bed being damaged are pretty scary and unfounded at this point, but, when the plans to put a cap on the well get delayed, you have to wonder a bit, eh?

    OK... No need to spend a day on that! Hey! The currencies are in rally mode again this morning, after a strong, but not a as strong GDP report from China last night. Chinese 2nd QTR GDP printed at 10.3%, which is quite a drop from the 11.9% they printed in the 1st QTR of this year... But, I've got two things to say about this......
  • A Jobs Jamboree Friday – 6/4/2010

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets beaten down again...
    * Why should we do anything now?
    * Brazil keeping inflation away...
    * ADP says 55,000 jobs created in May...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I suspect this will end up being a Fantastico Friday, but right now, not so much... Today is the Big Jobs Jamboree, and the cable news stations are spinning it quite nicely. So nicely put that stock jockeys are believing the spin and running stock futures higher. I've got that to talk about today, and more debt stuff... Believe me dear reader, I wish I didn't have to talk about this debt stuff, but I feel as though me and a few of my friends are the only ones doing so, and I don't want you to become like the rest of the country and become 'comfortably numb' with the deficit figures!...
  • 5.7% Growth In The U.S.?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies get sold VS the dollar...
    * A Budget Deficit of 10.6% of GDP!
    * 4 Central Bank meetings this week...
    * A lost decade of employment...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! In addition, welcome to February! The looooonnnnngggg month of January finally came to an end yesterday. We'll begin to see the daylight last a little longer each day in February, and that's a good thing! I've got trips to Orlando and Arizona this month, so that should break the month up, and hopefully it will be March before we know it!

    Well... According to the U.S. Gov't statistics, we have nothing to fear any longer with regards to our economy, inflation, deficit spending, interest rates, etc., for you see, the 4th QTR GDP had a preliminary print of +5.7%! It's all seashells and balloons for us now folks... That's what the cable news guys said, and that's what's all over the news wires... Forget about saving, go out and spend, everybody's doing it, they say! Just fork over those Gold coins, there's no reason to buy them any longer, for everything is fine here in the U.S.... There's nothing to see here, move along......
  • 3 Million Foreclosures Forecast For 2010!

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar is in the drivers seat on rate forecasts...
    * And I'll debunk those forecasts!
    * Bernanke gets re-confirmed...
    * The PPT revisited...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday in my book so far... The wind is blowing so hard outside that the door to the building wouldn't open for it was opening against the wind! Have I told you all recently how much I dislike cold weather? I gotta go where it's warm! And... Hopefully I will next week, when I head to Orlando for the Money Show... Last year, it was cold there too, so I was very disappointed! But back in the day when Alex was young, we used to go early, and spend a few days at Disney World, we always had warm weather then...

    OK... Another day, another day of listening to dolts talk about rate hikes coming in the near future for the U.S. I'm going to go into the reasons, and please notice, I have an "s" at the end of reason, in a bit, for why I think these people are showing their doltness...

    ...
  • China's GDP Soars 10.7%!

    In This Issue..

    * China has strong 4th QTR growth...
    * Time to let the renminbi gain VS the dollar...
    * Debt Ceiling is getting raised $1.9 Trillion...
    * Russian Central Bank is buying loonies...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Another day of dollar strength, in this switch from risk assets to dollar denominated assets... Again, I question the mental giants behind all this, for the U.S. is what caused this problem... And now traders turn to the U.S.???? Oh well, sure seems like it would be different if I were in charge! Of course, a LOT of things would be different if I were in charge! But that's a discussion for another day!

    Yesterday's Pfennig could set a record for the length, I think! So, I promise I won't go that long today!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the news overnight from China that their 4th QTR GDP accelerated to the fastest level since 2007... Chinese GDP for the 4th QTR was +10.7%!!!!! Talk about 'nailing' that call! The annual figure for China comes in at +8.7%, but in reality, who cares about the 1st QTR, when in the 4th and most recent quarter, growth was kicking tail and taking names later! In addition, China posted a higher consumer inflation figure than expected at +2%... And Retail Sales in China soared 16.9%! WOW!...
  • Germany & France Post 3rd QTR Growth...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion fuels dollar rally yesterday...
    * Eurozone growth may stop the Risk Aversion...
    * Budget Deficit is a record $176.4 Billion!
    * Euro, Swiss, Aussie, Norway, all cheaper today!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's try to make this a Fantastico Friday as well! The Risk Aversion that was creeping into the currency markets yesterday really took hold in the U.S. trading session, which meant the dollar was being bought once more, along with Japanese yen...

    It just makes me laugh out loud, when I write that the 'safe haven currencies' during Risk Aversion trading are the dollar and yen... These two countries have debt up to their eyeballs, pay no interest on their deposits, and have a leadership deficiency... (ok, before every begins to think that I'm ripping the president again, I'm not... I'm talking about the Central Bank, and lawmakers of each country)...
  • The Boy Who Cried Wolf? NOT!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Wednesday
    * But see selling the rest of the day.
    * German Consumer Confidence surprises...
    * GDP to be revised downward?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I get knocked down, but I get up again, you're never gonna keep me down... Yes, a little Tub Thumpin' this morning... I'm all geeked up because I'm sneaking out to go watch Chris Carpenter pitch for the Cardinals this afternoon! A day game... YAHOO!

    OK... Enough of that! Well, another day where the currencies bumped higher early morning, but then were sold the rest of the day. I know the currency guys (and gals) are all wonder where do they go from here... Which is the way that's clear? Well... Short term currency forecasts are proven to be wrong, most of the time... Long term? Well, that can't be argued... The deficit spending, the money creation, and the monetizing of debt will all come back to haunt the dollar... And as Aaron said yesterday, "we've only just begun"... (he was telling a joke), it holds true for the U.S. deficit spending picture......
  • GDP Does Not Compute, Will Robinson!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pound Sterling, the star performer?
    * Something smells fishy...
    * Do you see trend with Gov. Reports?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We had a very tight range trading day yesterday in the currencies, which have left them trading in about the same clothes they were wearing when I signed off yesterday! We've got that to talk about, and... Another $2 Billion for the CARS program has been allocated... What a crock! OK, Chuck, slow down, you don't need to get your blood boiling this quickly, this morning!

    I'm writing from home this morning, as I have a meeting close to our old office, which means its not far from where I live, which is completely different from our current office location, which is, I'll say... Quite a distance... But, hey! I'm not complaining, just giving you the details......
  • Dollar continues it’s slide...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar continues to slide...
    * US GDP contracts but not as fast...
    * Nordic currencies outperform...
    * Japanese yen continues to fall...

    Good day... The last day of July is upon us. Time just seems to keep moving faster as it seems summer just got started. The fall of the dollar also accelerated yesterday as investors moved back out of the 'safe haven' of US$ and continued to shop for more yield. The greenback tried to stage a bit of a rally in early European trading, but has fallen back off again as I sit down to write the Pfennig.

    I got a call from a Reuters reporter yesterday mid morning to ask why the dollar was rallying at the same time stocks were moving higher. I quickly paged through my Bloomberg looking for some sign why both were heading higher. The trading pattern which has been established over the last few months has these two asset classes moving in opposite directions; good news for the US economy sends stocks higher and the dollar lower as investors retreat from defensive 'safe haven' positions in the US$. The opposite occurs whenever there is data which shows the global economic recovery is faltering, stocks move lower and the dollar rallies with safe haven buying....
  • Risk aversion returns…

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * Money Multiplier dampens stimulus effects...
    * TIC flows show concern of foreign investors...
    * China back on growth track...

    Good day... Chuck got an early start on a two week hiatus from the desk, so you will be stuck with me writing the Pfennig for the next two weeks. But don't worry, you will still get a small dose of Chuck over the next week as he typically emails me his thoughts while on the road (I call it Pfennig Pfodder). Risk aversion dominated the currency markets overnight, as terrorists set off two separate explosions in Jakarta and investors moved money back into the 'safe havens' of the US$ and Japanese yen.

    Chuck wrote about this move yesterday, believing the bad news regarding CIT would probably cause a risk reversal. But the US stock market shook off the CIT news and rallied higher after a big earnings report by JP Morgan and a somewhat positive statement by Nouriel Roubini. Roubini, the New York University economist who is credited with predicting the financial crisis, said in a speech yesterday that the US economy might be close to the bottom. The stock jockeys took this statement along with the positive earnings reports and ran stocks up. But Roubini later tried to caution these bulls against reading too much into his statement, and reminded everyone that he has not changed his thoughts on a US recovery: 'I continue to see a shallow, below par and below trend recovery.'...
  • A Lost Decade?

    In This Issue..

    * An Up and Down day for currencies...
    * Jobs Jamboree moves to Thursday today...
    * China to buy more Gold!
    * Sweden cuts rates!

    Good day... And a Thankful Thursday to you! I'm reminded that we all need to be thankful for the patriots that led this country to victory and thus our freedom. The freedom for me to write a letter like this, each day, that allows me to say what I want to say (well, with the governor of the legal beagles of course!). And since this weekend we will celebrate our Independence, I thought this to be a good time to have a Thankful Thursday!

    Patriots... You know, the ending story for those 56 Patriots that signed the Declaration of Independence is not a happy story... So, when we learn of their collective fates, we realize that freedom does not come free......
  • Desperately Seeking Yield...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * More on the BRIC's...
    * New Zealand's GDP contracts..
    * Bernanke gets grilled!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! The end of what seemed to be a very long week... The last weekend in June, can you believe that? Next week, we'll be getting ready for the 4th of July celebrations! WOW!

    Well... What a volatile week it has been in the currencies! Up, down, all around, and settling back to levels that we saw before the Fed's FOMC meeting earlier this week. Suddenly, investors are looking for yield again... Looks like they are "Desperately Seeking (not Susan) Yield! And why not? The Fed, and the Bank of Canada (BOC) have come out and said that there will be no interest rate hikes until we've turned quite a few pages on the 2010 calendar....
  • Increasing SDR Issuance...

    In This Issue..

    * Fed confuses markets, risk assets get sold...
    * SNB intervenes to stop franc's rise
    * ECB issues 12-month liquidity...
    * Bernanke to get grilled?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, I know the currencies and commodities got whipsawed yesterday, and my Cardinals got spanked, but that's no reason for us to not enjoy a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! Every day is a gift, and it has nothing to do with stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities!

    OK... Not that I try to be philosophical, sometimes it just comes out that way! Besides, you don't want to think that I'm just a smart *** all the time! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    Well, as I said in the open, the currencies and commodities got whipsawed yesterday, and the culprit was the FOMC minutes... You see, the Fed Reserve met to discuss rates, and other items. And what they said just blew away the bond vigilantes, and really ticked off the Hawks, but in the end, what they said, was really that things will remain status quo......
  • He Said What?

    In This Issue..

    * Foreclosures rise...
    * Green Shoots, no so green!
    * getting on a bus...
    * Losing a triple A rating?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Not wanting to start the day off with bad news... But I just saw a flash on the TV that said, 'foreclosures jumped 32% last month'... More Blood in the Streets, eh? That just happens to be the title of my presentation today... Blood in the Street: Bargain time or just a cease fire? Hey! I don't make these things up...

    OK... Another day here in Sin City... This city is packed with people, everywhere we go, it's simply amazing... There's been no sign of a recession here... Of course, if you got out of the casinos, and shows, you would see some of the greatest devastation any where in the housing market here... So.. It's not a seashells and balloons in Vegas... I guess with the economy so rotten, people are hoping to strike it rich in the casinos though... Hmmm, have they not figured out that these ginormous buildings are here to make money?...
  • OMB Makes New Deficit Forecast...

    In This Issue..

    * The BLS adds jobs...

    * Growing Deficits again...

    * Jim Rogers....

    * A Trade Surplus for Canada...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I'm here! Lost Wages... No I mean, Las Vegas! It's such a long flight here! UGH! And the plane was packed... Like I said about a month ago, when you take a flight, it sure doesn't seem like people have cut back on spending!

    OK... Well, the currencies took a breather VS the dollar yesterday, and basically traded right around the currency round-up levels most of the day. Overnight, things were pretty quiet too... The markets are trying to figure out which way they are going to go with the dollar... The Deficit is growing, which SHOULD be bad for the dollar, but in recent times, fundamentals get a little hazy at times. So... Let's go to the tape on the Office of Budget Management (OMB)...