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  • 3rd QTR GDP To Lift Our Spirits?

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound a bit VS the dollar..
    * Bill Gross on the dollar...
    * Norway raises rates!
    * RBNZ lifts easing bias!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you once again! It's not raining at the moment, but rain is forecast for today, thus the Thunderin' Thursday name! Rain today, tomorrow and who knows when it will stop... I'm thinking of buying the blueprints to build an Ark!

    Front and Center this morning, we have the non-dollar currencies showing some healing as stock futures are positive. What's driving this new found positive feeling in the risk assets? Well, it's all about the first reading of 3rd QTR GDP today, which... Is expected to show that the U.S. economy came out of the recession in the quarter. Of course, I'll be looking for the Gov't spending portion of the GDP, but other media outlets won't, and the markets will get back to looking for higher yields, which you can not get in the U.S.!

    ...
  • Up, up, and away...

    In This Issue..

    * TALF...
    * Dollar falls even more...
    * Commodities...
    * Still disappointing...

    And Now... Today's Pfennig!

    Good day...And a Fantastic Friday to you! It's the end of another week that not only brought us the beginning of spring but also a major shift in the currency market. The effect from the Fed's decisions on Wednesday carried over into yesterday's trading session with the dollar engaged in another large sell off. How long and how far would be the big question marks right now but until another major event comes along, the dollar should continue to get sold.

    As I just touched on, the dollar was still down and out suffering from a two day hangover yesterday as a result of the quantitative easing measures the Fed has decided to pursue. We also gained some insight into the TALF that I mentioned yesterday which is intended to resurrect both consumer and business lending. They will expand to accept securities backed by four types of loans that include leases of business equipment and rental car fleets, securities backed by loans extended by mortgage servicers to cover missed payments by homeowners, and securities for floorplan loans. The Fed also said that this announcement was a first step in expanding the TALF and that a number of other asset classes are under review....
  • Housing stats show more rot on the housing vine....

    * US$ continues to be propped up... * SEK moves up vs. the US$... * Japanese yen falls.... * Gold prices come down ... ** Housing stats show more rot on the housing vine.... It has been a while since Chuck turned over the reigns of the Pfennig to me, so I'm a bit out of practice. But there was a lot of movement in the currency markets over the last 24 hours, giving me plenty of Pfennig fodder. I'll get right to it. The 'Safe Haven' status of the US$ continued to prop it up yesterday as bad housing data in the US scared investors. Sales of previously owned homes fell 5.3% in January, after rising slightly last month. And even worse for US homeowners, the median price of a home fell to $170,300, down nearly 26% from its peak in July 2006. These numbers reflect a worsening housing market which will weigh on the US economy through most of 2009. The inventory of unsold homes did fall, but still stands at 3.6 million. At the current rate of sales, it would take 9.6 months to exhaust the excess supply of homes. And this is assuming no more homes come into the market. The housing downturn will continue well into 2010, and will likely keep the US economy in the doldrums....