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  • Judgment day has arrived for Euro banks…

    In This Issue..

    * Judgment day for European banks...
    * US data beats estimates, but is still bad...
    * South Africa leaves rates unchanged...
    * Fannie and Freddie still in limbo.

    Good day. And welcome to what hopefully will be a fabulous Friday for everyone. I know it will be a good one for me, as I am heading out the door as soon as I get this written. My son is playing in the Show Me Tournament this weekend which is Missouri's little league state championship. Should be a fun weekend of baseball, but a bit hot as temperatures are expected to stay right around the triple digits...
  • A Vote Of Confidence!

    In This Issue..

    * China boosts euros...
    * Chinese exports soar!
    * RBNZ hikes rates!
    * Bernanke on the "hill"!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well, we have a new Stanley Cup Champion, and plenty more to talk about today! The Mid-West has been in one of those weather patterns that sees the day heat up, then produce violent storms, and then clears up... Sometimes it seems as though this lasts forever!

    OK... Well, Front and Center this morning, the euro is pushing higher on some words from Asia... Seems that China is very much behind the euro, and made statements related to that thought, which really put some starch in the euro's shorts overnight. The thing I worry about right now, is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting that's going on as I type my fat fingers to the bone... The ECB could crush this mini-rally in the euro in a heartbeat by saying the 'wrong thing' at their press conference that will be held after the ECB announces that rates will remain unchanged.

    ...
  • A New All-Time High For Gold!

    In This Issue..

    * Deflation to deep six Gold?
    * German data points to recovery...
    * The U.S. sponsored Ponzi Scheme...
    * ECOFIN internalizes their debt problems...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I hit the "wall" yesterday about 2 o'clock... All the fun and sun of the weekend, became the wall, and I hit it square on! But I'm well rested now, so here we go!

    Front and Center this morning... Gold has reached a new all-time high this morning. Yesterday I kept watching the shiny metal tick higher and higher, and I would yell out across the desk each rise in Gold... Gold was $1,250 when I turned on the screens this morning. It has given back $2 since, as I did some reading and research, but Shoot Rudy, the move yesterday was something to admire!...
  • Risk On, Risk Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Bundesbank hurts euro...
    * A$ is best performer overnight...
    * Is Gold a euro replacement?
    * 10-year Treasury yields soar higher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because I got the go-ahead for the next step to replace my eye with a prosthesis that looks like an eye... Just looked up to see Robin Meade back from vacation, so it's a double Tub Thumpin' Thursday now!

    OK... Recall yesterday's talk about the trading pattern that had existed for 4 consecutive days? Well, that was throw to the roadside yesterday, as the U.S. session went back to beating on the euro, and other currencies......
  • The Twilight Zone...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro bounces off 4-year low...
    * Gold Sells off again!
    * Greek receives first installment...
    * RBA to take a summer vacation...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I think the rain has stopped, for now at least! I feel like someone picked up St. Louis, and moved it to Seattle! Hey! It rains there a lot, but they know it is going to do so! Me? I begin to feel like I have cabin fever, not having the sunshine... So... Hopefully today, eh?

    OK... The price action in the euro yesterday, which has dominated the currency trading for a month now, was something out of the Twilight Zone... Help I'm slipping into the Twilight Zone, The place is a madhouse, feels like being cloned... Yes... That Twilight Zone... While the other currencies from Norway and Australia, were getting hammered, for no apparent reason I must add, the euro rallied in the early morning to near 1.24... Then turned on a dime, and by the time my turkey sandwich on wheat arrived at my desk, the single unit was back to trading below 1.23... But... Then, by the time I packed up to go home, the euro was back to 1.24... The strange thing about this swing, was that there was nothing, nada, zero, zilch, a big goose egg of news, data, or official slant to trade off of......
  • Gold Breaks Through!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro trades in tight range
    * Gold hits new all-time high...
    * Audit The Fed gets gutted...
    * Budget cuts all around, but not here!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Some wild storms ripped through our area overnight and left a mess! I had to change my route to work 2 times, due to road closures. But, just like the Pony Express... I made it here, and so the Pfennig will go out!

    Well... Yesterday was a change in the weather for the currencies, as we saw a very tight trading range with no wild swings up or down, which has been the routine for a month now. The euro traded in a range of 1.2675 to 1.2740, going back and forth all day... This morning, as I turn on the screens, the euro is at the bottom of that range....
  • The Wolves Are Always At The Door!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally falls on its face!
    * Dollars, yen, and Gold highlight the day...
    * More on the ratings agencies...
    * What, me worry about inflation?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's rainy and cold here in St. Louis... Not exactly 'May weather'... But then, you've got to experience this kind of weather, to enjoy the blue umbrella skies, and sunshine, warm days!

    Well... The sunshine for the euro only lasted about 12 hours... Yesterday, when I signed off, I said that the euro had come back from 1.3094 to 1.30, and we would need to see what the NY boys and girls thought of the aid package to get a clear direction for the euro... Well, the NY boys and girls didn't think much of the aid package, and their feelings were soon to show up in the currency trading... Almost all of the euro's gains, and those of the other currencies affected by the Eurozone problems, were wiped out... Completely! The euro is now trading lower than it was when we left for happy hour on Friday afternoon! UGH! But... Shoot Rudy, I said yesterday, that while I liked the package for its calming affect on the markets, I didn't like it for the debt... Well, the calming affect is gone, so we're left with debt......
  • Waiting On The Norges Bank...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro continues to get sold...
    * Will Norges bank get confused?
    * Thoughts on China...
    * Gold gets dragged down by euro...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's getting quite ugly out there in the investing world. Yesterday I tried to draw a line of comparison from the near collapse of Bear Stearns to the problems of the Eurozone... That line became quite a bit more clear yesterday and in the overnight markets... Let's go to the tape!

    Well... It was another day of selling the euro and dragging other currencies along for the ride... This time, Gold and Brazilian real could no longer resist the pull / drag of the euro selling... It has actually become a rout on the single unit, as now, we're not only dealing with the sovereign debt risk of Greece (which I still contend is not that big in the whole scheme of the Eurozone) but now, the euro is sailing into technical trading rough waters......
  • 110 Billion euros For Greece...

    In This Issue..

    * Aid Package for Greece is approved...
    * Aussie Gov't proposes a 40% mining profit tax!
    * ANZ Commodity Price Index rises 14th consecutive month!
    * Jobs reports this week...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... I'm back in the saddle today... It's been a long time, now, I'm coming back home. I've been away now, oh how, I'm coming home! Yes... I'm actually here, at my desk, and I'm not squinting, I'm not closing my eyes, and I'm not in pain! YAHOO! I've decided to go 'patchless' for now at least... More later on what's going on with the removed eye...

    Front and center this morning... Greece accepted the bail out terms from the Eurozone yesterday, and Germany says that Greece should have their funds by Friday... After months of hemming and hawing about whether Greece should receive funds, or whether or not Germany would actually release funds to Greece, it looks as though it's all coming to an end.... For now!...
  • Germany Talks Tough!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro's big rally stalls...
    * Problems with Greek Aid Package?
    * A U.S. debt update... (you're not going to like it!)
    * What about the $53 Billion?

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It was a wet, and sometimes dangerous weather wise weekend here in St. Louis, as a couple of tornados touched down on Saturday. It's still raining outside, and even though the euro got to get out of the rain for a bit on Friday, it's raining on the euro's parade once again this morning.

    Yes... As I left you on Friday, Greece had announced the activation of an aid package, and momentarily, things looked up for the beleaguered Eurozone. The euro continued to gain throughout the day on Friday, and well, looked like it was about to 'break out'... But that was Friday, and today is Monday... And all the euphoria surrounding Greece on Friday has been thrown out with the bathwater, and it's back to euro bashing this morning......
  • Another roller coaster day in the US...

    In This Issue..

    * Another roller coaster day in the US...
    * TIC data shows China and Japan losing their appetite...
    * Eurozone members support Greece...
    * Precious metals rise...

    Good day... We had a pretty busy day in the currency markets yesterday, with the dollar rising sharply in the morning only to sell off again after lunch. The selling continued in Asian trading, and the dollar index is back down to levels it was at this time yesterday morning. These roller coaster rides will probably continue as the markets just don't seem to know where to take the currencies. Short term moves will continue to be exaggerated, but the long term dollar continues to be in place.

    As I pointed out yesterday, this is a very busy week for data here in the US, and yesterday started us off with a bang. The volatile Empire manufacturing number showed a slight tick up but pretty much came in where it was expected. The more important Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers followed, and both confirmed the US economy is continuing to recover; albeit at a slow pace. Industrial production increased .1% in February, and Capacity Utilization also increased to 72.7%. This data got the day started off right for dollar bulls, and the greenback shot up.

    ...
  • Loose Lips, Sink Ships...

    In This Issue..

    * Greek PM stops currency rally...
    * Will Fed stop mortgage buying program?
    * Aussie jobs report is strong!
    * The history of a Pfennig For Your Thoughts...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The monsoons are coming to the Midwest... I believe I saw the weather report for this area showing rain today and the rest of the week... I should leave my car outside, to get a 'wash'! HA!

    Well... During World War II, there was a saying, that, 'loose lips, sink ships'... I think Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, should have taken those words to heart yesterday... You see, the currencies, led by the beleaguered euro, were rallying, and the single unit was nearing 1.37, when Papandreou made a statement that sunk the rally's ship... He said that 'Greece's debt problems could soon spread to the rest of Europe and mean a weaker euro'...
  • Bailout Package For Greece Put On Hold...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally fades on latest Greek development...
    * Brazilian real rallies...
    * Canadian loonie ratchets higher...
    * Another Geithner smoking gun?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because... I say so! Every day's a new day... And for someone like me that had two strikes called on me before I knew the pitch was even coming... Every day is special!

    I want to thank every one that sent along a note of good wishes, and advice to tell the people that decide that email is a good way to ruin someone's day, good riddance... I'll have more on this in the Big Finish...

    But what a day the currencies had yesterday! The euro gained ground all the way back to 1.3730 (but saw some profit taking at the end of the day) and all the other currencies followed in step... Now... There's two ways to look at this... Either the euro is like a star that's getting ready to burn out... (it always shines brightest before it burns out), or... It's like a star that had been covered up by another planet, and is coming back into view!...
  • Eurozone Economy Stumbles, Fumbles...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets sold on weak data...
    * China tries to slowdown again...
    * A$'s get slapped on the China slowdown attempt...
    * Retail sales & confidence print today...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday, in hopes of becoming a Fantastico Friday! It is a 3-day weekend, and we get paid today, so there are some good steps toward Fantastico... Alex's Fox "gig" went great, he stood up, strong and tall, and ripped off a smokin' guitar solo that lasted about 1-2 minutes... But, it was a very late night for yours truly, and so I'm draggin' the line this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the non-dollar currencies led by the euro, are sliding against the dollar... Yesterday, the currencies range traded all day, and in the overnight Asian session that pattern remained tight... But in the European session this morning, as Economic growth in the euro zone slowed in the fourth quarter of 2009, as only one of the currency area's four largest economies expanded....
  • Big Ben Talks Rate Hikes...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a very tight range...
    * Aussie job creation soars!
    * Oil pushes loonies higher...
    * The Mogambo Guru returns!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... It's a BIG night at the Butler house... Not really at our house, but more the Fabulous Fox! My little buddy Alex, and the jazz band he plays guitar for, will be performing tonight at the Fabulous Fox, which for those of you not familiar with the Fox, it's a beautiful refurbished theater here in St. Louis... Alex also has a big guitar solo, so this should be good!

    OK... Well, the 'experts' that thought the Trade Deficit was going to narrow in December got their lunch handed to them yesterday, when not only did the Trade Deficit NOT narrow, but widened from $35 Billion to $40 Billion! Now that stinks! And... I'll tell you right now, it will deduct from the 5.7% GDP figure that was printed a couple of weeks ago. Yes, this increase in the Trade Deficit will probably reduce the GDP figure to at least 5%...

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