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  • RBA Raises Rates Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion boosts dollar...
    * U.S. manufacturing is strong...
    * More stimulus? Please say it ain't so Joe!
    * Thoughts from the Big Boss!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I'm here! Just when you thought I would be gone for the week, and you would get away from my rants, and get the calm Chris Gaffney, the rug gets pulled out from you! I am so bummed! I was told that I could not travel to Cabo for the Sovereign Society's Offshore Advantage Conference, and I was to remain at home, with my leg up, blah, blah, blah... What a crock!

    OK, now that we've got that out of the way... Front and Center this morning, we have a very strong dollar rally going on... It began yesterday mid-morning, when things turned on one thin dime. First, we had the U.S. Manufacturing Index rise in September and the Trading Theme kicked in with the dollar getting sold on the good news for the economy... But then a strange thing happened on the way to the forum. Everyone began to fear what's been going on in Banking... Friday, the 115th bank failed this year, and suddenly, traders, investors, hedge fund dudes, and everyone else, got a case of the flu... Not the 'pandemic' H1N1 flu... This is the 'chicken flu'... Chicken to continue to takes risks in the face of a banking problems... Well, to think of it, maybe, just maybe, it's not the 'chicken flu' but the 'prudent flu'!...

  • Consumer Spending Drives GDP?

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar rebounds after spending fades...
    * Chinese Manufacturing rises...
    * Eurozone Manufacturing rises...
    * Australia as the proxy for global growth...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to November! My least liked month! But that's a story for another time! I hope your Halloween was fun! The rain stopped here, there was a near full moon shining in the sky, and the little kids had a blast! And Hey! The Rams won a football game! WOW!

    OK... Well... Friday was a blur to me, as I went to the doctor's office for a test, and then on my way to work, they called my cell and asked me to turn around and go to a lab for more tests... UGH! So, by the time I got to work, Jennifer had set everything up and begun trading for me... Then it was time to go home! So, I'm sitting here this morning, scratching my bald head trying to recall the currency prices on Friday... And Oh yeah! Now I remember! Do you recall the Thursday action after the GDP report showed such strength (whether you believe it or not) and the dollar got sold like pet rocks?...

  • Will History Repeat Itself?

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies rally...
    * A$'s and C$'s to parity?
    * Reaching 40% of expenditures...
    * Gold & Oil on the rise once again...


    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A long day on the desk for me yesterday, left me draggin' the line... But I'm rested and refreshed again this morning, so let's get to the Pfennig for today! The Finance Ministers of the Eurozone met yesterday, as I told you, and they've tried to stem the euro's rise... But, they'll need more than words to get the job done! And so, we begin a new day...

    Front and Center this morning, the currencies, which had given back ground overnight to the dollar, are back in rally mode, and are taking liberties with the dollar once more. For most of the night that was not the case, though. The dollar had rallied back and sent the euro, for instance, to the 1.48 handle, after the single unit spent yesterday at 1.49 and change... There seemed to be a move to the dollar, but that didn't last long, and the currencies are once again rallying VS the dollar this morning, and the euro has pushed to 1.4970 as I write......

  • G-7 To Discuss Currencies?

    In This Issue..

    * The ball is in the dollar's court today...
    * Aussie is unable to hold 14-month high...
    * China and Eurozone print stronger PMI's
    * Chock-full-o-data today...

    Good day... Welcome to October! And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! No real reason to get Tub Thumpin', but I thought why not? The non-dollar currencies have given back their gains made yesterday to the dollar, in a game of what seems to be, give and take... A tennis match with the dollar, one day the ball is in the dollar's court, and the next day it's not! Really, kind of giving me a rash, watching this... I want some direction here!

    So... When I turned on all my screens this morning, and then waited about 20 minutes for the new programs to be installed on them that the IT people left for the next time the computer started up... Hmmm, where was I? Oh! I was talking about when I first saw the currencies this morning... I saw that the euro had fallen back to 1.4560... And of course wanted to find out why...

    ...

  • More Baby Steps For A German Economic Recovery...

    In This Issue..

    * German unemployment falls!
    * RBA disappoints the markets...
    * China to buy Canadian company...
    * ISM to print positive?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And Welcome to September! Well... Here's a thought to get our engines started this morning... Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning ( www.dailyreckoning.com )had this to add to my ranting about our National Debt going to over $20 Trillion in the next 10 years, due to deficit spending...

    'The Obama administration, for example, expects to run $9 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years - and that number is based on a recovery! Imagine what will happen if the economy doesn't recover?'

    ...

  • A Currency Rally Takes Shape...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally overnight...
    * A$'s rally for 7th consecutive month!
    * Will the ECB be vindicated?
    * Sweden tries negative deposit rates...

    Good day... And a happy Friday to one and all! So, yesterday didn't turn out the way I thought it would go, but that's OK... I think my body is trying to tell me something, as I overslept again this morning! I'm heading out the door this morning to go 'fishing'... Should be a ton of fun, with neighbor friends this weekend...

    Well, front and center this morning, we are smack dab in the middle of a currency rally VS the dollar. It has all the makings of such, as the Japanese yen is getting sold, along with the green/peachback. The improved economic data this week, finally caught up with the dollar, as risk assets are back on the table....

  • European orders support the Euro...

    In This Issue..

    * European orders increase more than expected...
    * Was Cash for Clunkers necessary?...
    * Roubini sees a 'W' not a 'V'...
    * Lessons from Mary Poppins...

    Good day... And welcome to another week, the last one in August! The weather here in St. Louis has shifted toward fall, which is my favorite season. Chuck is flying back home from San Francisco today and will be back in the saddle tomorrow. Both he and the big boss, Frank Trotter, sent me some great Pfennig pfodder over the weekend so lets get right to it.

    The dollar continued to drift lower throughout the trading day on Friday, with the commodity currencies of Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand leading the way. Confidence is returning to the markets, and investors are once again moving out of the 'safe havens' of the Japanese yen and US dollar. The reports coming out of Jackson Hole indicate that central bankers believe chances for near-term growth appear good and recent data seem to support this conclusion....

  • Germany & France Exit The Recession...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally...
    * Eurozone growth unexpectedly stronger!
    * FOMC extends QE...
    * Norges is the first!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... Turn-around Tuesday came 24 hours later this week! HA! Yes, the currencies came back yesterday, but not with a lot of conviction... You see... Stocks rallied, but that doesn't mean what I talked about yesterday still won't happen... Be careful there!

    The euro has received some additional love this morning, as the Eurozone's economic growth printed better than expected, albeit still negative... But... Germany and France showed growth, which I must say is very unexpected! That means that both Germany and France have exited the recession... Well, that is at least for now! For those of you keeping score at home, Eurozone GDP fell -.1%, which is far better than the -.5% that was expected... Oh! And this is for the 2nd QTR... You would have to think that data like this would be very good for the euro, and from the looks of it, that's exactly what's happening!...

  • GDP Does Not Compute, Will Robinson!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range
    * Pound Sterling, the star performer?
    * Something smells fishy...
    * Do you see trend with Gov. Reports?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! We had a very tight range trading day yesterday in the currencies, which have left them trading in about the same clothes they were wearing when I signed off yesterday! We've got that to talk about, and... Another $2 Billion for the CARS program has been allocated... What a crock! OK, Chuck, slow down, you don't need to get your blood boiling this quickly, this morning!

    I'm writing from home this morning, as I have a meeting close to our old office, which means its not far from where I live, which is completely different from our current office location, which is, I'll say... Quite a distance... But, hey! I'm not complaining, just giving you the details......

  • Currencies and Commodities Sell Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Overnight markets ambush risk assets...
    * Germany's IFO Business Confidence gains again...
    * A$'s get pounded by opposite thought story...
    * More supply to auction off for the U.S....

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Father's Day weekend was grand... Mine sure was! I'm feeling the affects of the 'grand' weekend this morning too! And... It was the first day of Summer! So we had all that going for us, eh?

    Front and center this morning, I'm as proud as a peacock this morning. I just read an email from good friend, and excellent market analyst, Mary Anne Aden... Mary Anne sent me a note letting me know that the one and only Richard Russell had quoted me in his letter June 10th... She said it went something like...'this is from Chuck Butler's always terrific column...' WOW! Being quoted in Richard Russell's letter is like the top of the list for me!...

  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Russia's Fin Min talks up the dollar!
    * Currencies, commodities, stocks all lose ground...
    * Who's car is uglier
    * Gold hit a 3-week low...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! How about that weekend? I actually didn't get a chance to experience much of it outside, but it sure looked great! We have new champions in basketball and hockey, so congrats to the Lakers and Penguins on their Championships! Now, the housecleaning is out of the way... It's time to get to the meat... Where's the beef? HA!...

  • More Wild Swings!

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes back and forth over 1.43...
    * Eurozone unemployment rises to 9.2%
    * Australia's GDP surprises!
    * Is it protectionism?

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm draggin' the line today, as I was helping my oldest son, Andrew, with things in his brand, spankin' new house, last night. Congrats to Andrew, for finding a great bargain, with a low, fixed, interest rate!

    OK... Whew! What a day in the currencies yesterday! Another day, and another day of wild swings.. Volatility is the name of the game these days... Watching, for instance, the euro trade down to 1.4220, and then up to 1.4320 and not just on a one-way ticket! Oh No! this is a bounce here a bounce there... But just like it was going from 1.41 to 1.42, it took a few times over the 1.42 figure before it finally stuck, and headed to 1.43... All the other currencies followed in the swings, as usual......

  • A Currency Rally For The Ages!

    In This Issue..

    * Negative momentum towards the dollar grows...
    * Treasury yields continue to rise...
    * Fundamentals and Charts coincide!
    * Silver has best week in 22 years!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to make the call and say this is going to be a Fantastico Friday! The sun is supposed to come out today after a week of rain, it's Friday, it's pay-day, and... The currencies have put on a rally that's the stuff that movies are made from! And... Once again, there were signs yesterday that the break of the link to stocks was in place! Take all that, and the fact that we woke up this morning for a brand new day... And you have a Fantastico Friday!

    OK... So front and center this morning let me tell you about the currency rally that began yesterday morning... Let's look back at what I said as I was getting ready to hit the send button yesterday morning... 'So... As I get ready to head to the Big Finish, I see that the currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, are getting off the porch once again to chase the dollar.'...

  • Carry trades unwind...

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trades unwind...
    * Euro zone GDP falls...
    * Will TIC flows be enough??
    * Aussie dollar predicted to outperform...

    Good day...Chuck handed me the Pfennig this morning, as I took an early flight home yesterday and he got back to St. Louis much later than I did. The Las Vegas Money Show went well, as Chuck packed the presentation rooms with investors looking to learn more about investing in Gold and currencies. Attendance seemed like it was down a bit, but we stayed busy at the booth with investors looking for diversification. We also got to see a number of 'old friends' who stopped by the booth to say hi. All in all it was a good three days, but as always, it is good to get home and back into the routine.

    The currency markets fell back into their established routine also, as fear drove investors out of riskier assets and back into the US$. We saw a general reversal of the carry trade, with the Japanese yen the only major currency which appreciated vs. the US$. As Chuck pointed out last week, investors feeling more confident about the global economy, dusted off their carry trades which had made them good money over the past few years. But traders are still a bit skittish, and move back out of these leveraged trades at the first sign of trouble in the global economy....

  • Opening Pandora's Box...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies back off...
    * More problems for BOA?
    * More on China...
    * Aussie Retail Sales rebound...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had someone last week in Bermuda ask me why I have my little sayings like Wonderful Wednesdays, and Fantastico Fridays... I told him that it had to do with my life scare of almost 2 years ago, and that I now celebrate each and every day! (well, maybe when I had pneumonia two weeks back I wasn't celebrating....)

    OK... I hope your Cinco De Mayo fun was... Well... Fun! We went out with some good friends, but was back home before bed time for yours truly... Still fun though!

    The currencies, led by the euro have run into a dollar road block... It's all about the Stress Tests this morning folks... It now appears that Bank of America (BOA) will need approx. $35 Billion, and not the measly $10 Billion rumored yesterday. That's quite a boat load of money, folks... So... All eyes are on the Stress Tests results which are expected to be released tomorrow. But this kind of rumor regarding BOA, is weighing heavily on the risk assets this morning, with a bias toward risk aversion....
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