Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • No More Stress Tests....

    In This Issue..

    * Stress Tests don't reveal much...
    * Risk Assets should rally...
    * RBNZ meets this week to raise rates...
    * Loonies rally on surge in Oil price...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you... Hopefully, your Monday is working out better than mine has so far... I'm writing from home, with all kinds of technical difficulties this morning. I had car problems and had to turn around and come home. Now, I've not been able to 'connect'... This is starting out about as bad as my trip home from Vancouver on Friday that turned into Saturday!

    Not that you read the letter to hear about my travel problems, but I had to stay the night in Dallas, and fly home Saturday... UGH! So, I'm still beat, and now I have this car problem to deal with as soon as I get this ready to go out!...
  • High Yielders Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * Is it Game On for Carry Trades again?
    * A Trade-Free Zone for Southeast Asia!
    * 10-year yield rise will shut down the mortgage rally...
    * A min-rally for the euro this morning...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm already draggin' the line today on the 2nd day back from vacation! UGH! The High Yielders are back to work this week, as the currencies of Australia, South Africa, and Brazil are attempting a come-back VS the dollar. This and more, as we head into the last Tuesday of 2009...

    Well... The last Monday of 2009, was uneventful with the currencies remaining in Tupperware ranges (tight that is!), and with little to show in the way of any measurable appreciation VS the dollar. There was no sign of the U.S. Corporations repatriating their profits yesterday as was rumored... Of course they still have today, tomorrow and Thursday to do so...

    ...
  • Carry trades unwind...

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trades unwind...
    * Euro zone GDP falls...
    * Will TIC flows be enough??
    * Aussie dollar predicted to outperform...

    Good day...Chuck handed me the Pfennig this morning, as I took an early flight home yesterday and he got back to St. Louis much later than I did. The Las Vegas Money Show went well, as Chuck packed the presentation rooms with investors looking to learn more about investing in Gold and currencies. Attendance seemed like it was down a bit, but we stayed busy at the booth with investors looking for diversification. We also got to see a number of 'old friends' who stopped by the booth to say hi. All in all it was a good three days, but as always, it is good to get home and back into the routine.

    The currency markets fell back into their established routine also, as fear drove investors out of riskier assets and back into the US$. We saw a general reversal of the carry trade, with the Japanese yen the only major currency which appreciated vs. the US$. As Chuck pointed out last week, investors feeling more confident about the global economy, dusted off their carry trades which had made them good money over the past few years. But traders are still a bit skittish, and move back out of these leveraged trades at the first sign of trouble in the global economy....
  • Saying "NO" To Eastern Europe...

    * Dollar continues to rally... * John Taylor buys dollars... * Canada sees a deficit! * More bailout funding... ** Saying "NO" To Eastern Europe... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to March too! Here and a lot of the country saw March come in like a lion, which means it should go out like a lamb, right? Let's hope it begins turning in that direction before month-end! 9 days before I leave for Florida, the countdown begins! Well... The currencies continue to trade heavy under the pressure of the dollar, and the "flight to safety" in Treasuries... The euro has lost the 1.26 handle and continues to look weaker and weaker all the time. The latest move down came as a result of new that Eurozone leaders rejected a request for Eastern Europe aid... Here's the skinny on that......
  • It's Not My Fault, It Must Be Yours!

    * What's $78 Billion among friends? * Currencies fade with bias to buy Gold... * Could the Carry Trade Unwind be done? * U.S. soccer beats Mexico... ** It's Not My Fault, It Must Be Yours! Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Well... Front and center this morning, I'm going to tell you something that will surprise a few and make a few happy. I've had my say on the Bailouts, TARP, Stimulus, and spending. I've beaten them to a pulp, and some readers have expressed their contempt with me carrying on with this beating. So... Unless something cracks, I'll just leave it all as it stands, and go on with life. This all has been too much for my blood pressure to take! I'll report the facts on this stuff, and leave the commentary for people that think they "know better"... For instance, it was reported the other day that the Treasury Dept. has overpaid for stock received from TARP recipients by $78 Billion. You see, for every $100 given in TARP, the Treasury was to receive $100 in stock / assets, but when all the beans are counted, the Treasury is $78 Billion short on stock /assets... But, what the heck, what's $78 Billion among friends?...
  • Are Freddie and Fannie Insolvent?

    * Poole slams Freddie and Fannie... * The dollar gets sold again... * Bad data for the dollar today... * Renminbi matches '07 performance! ** Are Freddie and Fannie Insolvent? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday indeed! The euro broke out of that tight trading range yesterday, we had a distorted Weekly Jobless Claims number, and the un-dynamic duo of Ben and Hank got taken to the woodshed by Ron Paul... All this and more as we head into the 2nd Friday of July! OK... First on this Fabulous Friday, I forgot to talk about ex-St. Louis Fed President William Poole's comments about Freddie and Fannie yesterday... These comments were responsible for bringing the mortgage meltdown front and center to the markets once again... So... What did Poole say? Well... Poole flatly stated that, "Freddie and Fannie Mae are insolvent"... Uh-Oh! As I thought earlier this week that this meltdown of Freddie and Fannie Mae could be the risk event I've been talking about... Well... If Poole is correct... We're here......
  • Fighting Inflation...

    * CPI increases... * Eurozone inflation increases too! * G-8 lets currencies slip by... * TIC Flows data today... **Fighting Inflation... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope you had a grand Father's Day... Mine was fabulous! And a great weather day too! Cards take 2 of 3 from the Phillies after getting royally spanked on Friday night! UGH! And I got to see my first ever Polo game on Saturday! I've seen 100's of water polo games, as son Andrew was a good player in High School, but never a Polo game on horses... Absolutely cool! OK... Friday was not a good day in the currencies as once again the dollar took the hammer and swung a mighty swing. The euro spent the day in the 1.53 handle, as more and more talk about the Fed fighting inflation took hold of the markets. I'm still resisting this rhetoric by the Fed, and believe that eventually the markets will come to the realization that the Fed is simply "talking the talk" and are unwilling to "walk the walk"......
  • Signaling The All Clear Horn?

    * Some explanation, please! * Retail Sales drop in the Eurozone... * Another Iceland note... * Carry Trades live another day......
  • He's Back....

    * Eurozone inflation jumps higher! * U. of M. Consumer Sentiment falls again! * Unwinding Carry Trades.... * Another Fed error?...