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In This Issue..

* Dollar rebounds after spending fades...
* Chinese Manufacturing rises...
* Eurozone Manufacturing rises...
* Australia as the proxy for global growth...

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! And Welcome to November! My least liked month! But that's a story for another time! I hope your Halloween was fun! The rain stopped here, there was a near full moon shining in the sky, and the little kids had a blast! And Hey! The Rams won a football game! WOW!

OK... Well... Friday was a blur to me, as I went to the doctor's office for a test, and then on my way to work, they called my cell and asked me to turn around and go to a lab for more tests... UGH! So, by the time I got to work, Jennifer had set everything up and begun trading for me... Then it was time to go home! So, I'm sitting here this morning, scratching my bald head trying to recall the currency prices on Friday... And Oh yeah! Now I remember! Do you recall the Thursday action after the GDP report showed such strength (whether you believe it or not) and the dollar got sold like pet rocks?...

In This Issue..

* The ball is in the dollar's court today...
* Aussie is unable to hold 14-month high...
* China and Eurozone print stronger PMI's
* Chock-full-o-data today...

Good day... Welcome to October! And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! No real reason to get Tub Thumpin', but I thought why not? The non-dollar currencies have given back their gains made yesterday to the dollar, in a game of what seems to be, give and take... A tennis match with the dollar, one day the ball is in the dollar's court, and the next day it's not! Really, kind of giving me a rash, watching this... I want some direction here!

So... When I turned on all my screens this morning, and then waited about 20 minutes for the new programs to be installed on them that the IT people left for the next time the computer started up... Hmmm, where was I? Oh! I was talking about when I first saw the currencies this morning... I saw that the euro had fallen back to 1.4560... And of course wanted to find out why...

...

In This Issue..

* Overnight markets ambush risk assets...
* Germany's IFO Business Confidence gains again...
* A$'s get pounded by opposite thought story...
* More supply to auction off for the U.S....

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope your Father's Day weekend was grand... Mine sure was! I'm feeling the affects of the 'grand' weekend this morning too! And... It was the first day of Summer! So we had all that going for us, eh?

Front and center this morning, I'm as proud as a peacock this morning. I just read an email from good friend, and excellent market analyst, Mary Anne Aden... Mary Anne sent me a note letting me know that the one and only Richard Russell had quoted me in his letter June 10th... She said it went something like...'this is from Chuck Butler's always terrific column...' WOW! Being quoted in Richard Russell's letter is like the top of the list for me!...

In This Issue..

* Carry trades unwind...
* Euro zone GDP falls...
* Will TIC flows be enough??
* Aussie dollar predicted to outperform...

Good day...Chuck handed me the Pfennig this morning, as I took an early flight home yesterday and he got back to St. Louis much later than I did. The Las Vegas Money Show went well, as Chuck packed the presentation rooms with investors looking to learn more about investing in Gold and currencies. Attendance seemed like it was down a bit, but we stayed busy at the booth with investors looking for diversification. We also got to see a number of 'old friends' who stopped by the booth to say hi. All in all it was a good three days, but as always, it is good to get home and back into the routine.

The currency markets fell back into their established routine also, as fear drove investors out of riskier assets and back into the US$. We saw a general reversal of the carry trade, with the Japanese yen the only major currency which appreciated vs. the US$. As Chuck pointed out last week, investors feeling more confident about the global economy, dusted off their carry trades which had made them good money over the past few years. But traders are still a bit skittish, and move back out of these leveraged trades at the first sign of trouble in the global economy....

In This Issue..

* Job Losses Continue To Mount!
* Currencies rally on the day...
* Shhhhh! The Gov't wants to keep this quiet....
* Richard Russell...

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! OK, it's Opening Day here in St. Louis, so traditionally I bring this to you on Opening Day... Beat the drum, and hold the phone, the sun came out today, we're born again, there's new grass on the field... A-rounded third, and headed for home, it's a brown eyed handsome man, anyone can understand the way I feel.....

Yes, baseball freaks like me, believe we're born again every spring on Opening Day, for before that first pitch is thrown, everyone is in first place!...

* A Santa Rally for the currencies?... * Waiting for the FOMC... * AUD and NZD rally... * China to try and keep growth above 8%... ** Santa rally for the currencies... Good day...It was actually a Great day for the currencies yesterday as the dollar index dropped another full point. The Euro moved past $1.35 and then blew through $1.36 to end the day over $1.37. And the Euro wasn't even the best performer, as the New Zealand dollar rallied over 2.1% vs. the US$ to take the title of best performing currency against the greenback. The South African rand was the only currency turning in a negative performance yesterday with the other commodity driven currencies of Norway and Brazil just barely holding their ground vs. the US$....

* Dollar rally continues... * Eurozone data prints weak... * Oil sees a HUGE drop! * WAKE UP, China! ** An Aussie Rate Cut! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm shaking my head this morning and wondering what its going to take to get this dollar rally stopped before it gets out of hand, and the exports get killed once again. And if the exports get killed, the Current Account Deficit begins to swell again, and so on and so on. This dollar strength is not good for our economy at this stage, but that's what we have, and I'm wondering who wrote the book of love! I recall the last time we saw the dollar smokin' hot like this, 2005... I sure hope the nasty emails to me don't start again... You should have seen some of these emails, they would embarrass a sailor! OK, that's just a saying, I'm not picking on sailors! You have to say these disclaimers or else there will be someone that gets upset and fires off a nasty email. What's happened in society that email has allowed people to say things they would never say to someone's face? It's brought out the Mr. Hyde in people, for sure!...

* Dollar rally continues... * Be careful what you wish for! * Prime loans now in trouble... * Norges Bank to keep rates unchanged... ** Trade Deficit Narrows... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Tuesday saw more volatility in the currencies as the dollar went back in forth, but well within a trading range. The euro has melted down to the 1.49 area, where it seems to have found some breathing room. The Trade Deficit for June shrunk, but the Budget Deficit widened... Again, the fundamentals in the U.S. continue to point to recession. All this and more in today's Pfennig, so grab a cup o'java, a chair, and let's go! OK... Front and center this morning, I want to talk about the Trade Deficit, which in June showed a narrowing from $59.8 Billion to $56.8 Billion, which looks good, right? Well... As I told you in yesterday's Pfennig, you have to be careful what you wish for. This drop in the Trade Deficit pushed the dollar higher yesterday morning, and got me thinking... (I know, that could be dangerous, but stay with me here...) A stronger dollar will not play well, share toys, and keep its hands to itself, with exports... And exports have been something short of amazing with the dollar being weak. In fact, exports have accounted for the largest contribution to GDP in the past 5 quarters! (with U.S. Consumer spending drying up, this is possible!) Add to that, everyone getting goose bumps regarding a global slowdown... If the world slows down, like the dollar bulls are claiming they will, thus propping up the dollar, then U.S. exports will slow even more!...