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  • Spraying Round-up....

    In This Issue..

    * Industrial Production declines...
    * Stocks sell off, leading currencies down...
    * Indian election spurs a rally...
    * China stockpiles commodities...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Thanks to Chris for picking up the ball on the Pfennig Friday. I returned to St. Louis with a very swollen leg and foot from all that walking in Las Vegas. One of these days I'll learn, eh? Any way... A restful day with my feet up on Friday, and I was ready to go again!

    Well... As much as I dislike having to say so, because I told you this might happen... The currencies have given back some major ground VS the dollar since Friday morning. It's all tied to the fact that the euphoria going around the markets the previous week regarding stocks and the U.S. economy, came to a screeching halt last week. I pleaded and begged for the currencies to break this link to stocks, but it wouldn't / didn't happen and voila! What we have here is a failure to break the link, and now that there's a falling demand for stocks, currencies have tanked too... UGH!...
  • Carry trades unwind...

    In This Issue..

    * Carry trades unwind...
    * Euro zone GDP falls...
    * Will TIC flows be enough??
    * Aussie dollar predicted to outperform...

    Good day...Chuck handed me the Pfennig this morning, as I took an early flight home yesterday and he got back to St. Louis much later than I did. The Las Vegas Money Show went well, as Chuck packed the presentation rooms with investors looking to learn more about investing in Gold and currencies. Attendance seemed like it was down a bit, but we stayed busy at the booth with investors looking for diversification. We also got to see a number of 'old friends' who stopped by the booth to say hi. All in all it was a good three days, but as always, it is good to get home and back into the routine.

    The currency markets fell back into their established routine also, as fear drove investors out of riskier assets and back into the US$. We saw a general reversal of the carry trade, with the Japanese yen the only major currency which appreciated vs. the US$. As Chuck pointed out last week, investors feeling more confident about the global economy, dusted off their carry trades which had made them good money over the past few years. But traders are still a bit skittish, and move back out of these leveraged trades at the first sign of trouble in the global economy....
  • The ECB Clash Over Policy Again...

    In This Issue..

    * Initial Jobless Claims rise...
    * PPI does too!
    * Euros get hung out on a line...
    * Gold makes a comeback!

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It may not be Thunderin' where you are, but apparently it was yesterday in my little river town, as I heard we had some shingles blow off... And... It certainly is Thunderin' over in the Eurozone this morning, I'll tell you why in a minute. So, let's get going don't want to get caught in any of that Thunder!

    I finished the last of my 3 presentations yesterday, and called it quits, as far as walking back and forth to the Conference Center. They'll just have to do without me at the booth! But the presentation was good, I think, and I made some very important points. None of which, were brand new to Pfennig readers!...
  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday, May 8th!

    In This Issue..

    * Stress tests finally print!
    * The Gov't wants you to 'feel good'...
    * Job losses decline on a weekly basis...
    * Happy Mother's Day!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's make it a Fantastico Friday, eh? Why not! It's the Friday to kick off Mother's Day weekend! More on that later, but first, let's talk about the Stress Tests. Personally I could just as easily forget about them, because as I've said over and over again, The Gov't wasn't going to 'spook' the markets with 'true results'... This whole "exercise" is a just another effort to make us all 'feel good'...

    OK, the rumor mill has finally been shut down, and the facts, as the Gov't would let us know them to be, are out... Let's take a gander at the results!...
  • It's All About The Stress Tests...

    In This Issue..

    * Tired of reacting to rumors!
    * Aussie dollar continues to rally...
    * More on China...
    * Bank of England keeps rates unchanged...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! We're stuck in a rainy pattern here in St. Louis, I just have to hope the rain stops long enough to get the day game at Busch in today!

    Well... The Stress Tests get their public showing today... The rumors continue to be something strange... Strange in that, one it's Bank of America (BOA) needing to raise $10 Billion, the next day it's $35 Billion, and then later in the same day, BOA doesn't need to raise any capital! Talk about wild swings of emotion! WOW!...
  • Opening Pandora's Box...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies back off...
    * More problems for BOA?
    * More on China...
    * Aussie Retail Sales rebound...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had someone last week in Bermuda ask me why I have my little sayings like Wonderful Wednesdays, and Fantastico Fridays... I told him that it had to do with my life scare of almost 2 years ago, and that I now celebrate each and every day! (well, maybe when I had pneumonia two weeks back I wasn't celebrating....)

    OK... I hope your Cinco De Mayo fun was... Well... Fun! We went out with some good friends, but was back home before bed time for yours truly... Still fun though!

    The currencies, led by the euro have run into a dollar road block... It's all about the Stress Tests this morning folks... It now appears that Bank of America (BOA) will need approx. $35 Billion, and not the measly $10 Billion rumored yesterday. That's quite a boat load of money, folks... So... All eyes are on the Stress Tests results which are expected to be released tomorrow. But this kind of rumor regarding BOA, is weighing heavily on the risk assets this morning, with a bias toward risk aversion....
  • It's Cinco De Mayo!

    In This Issue..

    * A Huge currency rally...
    * The games people play now...
    * RBA leaves rates unchanged...
    * Brazilian real is the daily winner!

    Good day... Hola! And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, today is Cinco De Mayo... It's a fun day so go have some fun! A few years ago, I talked about Cinco De Mayo, and some guy took exception to it, and called me a really nasty name... So, I won't get all flowery about the day, except to say, go have some fun!

    Of course, to me, the saying 'go have some fun' is a staple of my being! Especially these days! I realize that I need to have "more fun", but work, and all that gets in the way, darn it! HA!...
  • Dollar Shows Additional Strength...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro at one-month low... * Trichet talks rate cuts... * Riksbank & Bank of Canada this week... * The Mogambo on a Monday!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Today is a special day, in that it is the Big Boss Frank Trotter's birthday! Happy Birthday Boss! Actually Frank is more of a very good, long time friend, mentor, and then boss. We've worked together for a very long time... I tell people at shows that Frank and I do together, that we've been working together for so long... The Dead Sea wasn't even sick when we began working together! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    OK... A bad day a the office for the euro and other currencies on Friday, and then last night in the overnight markets... European Central Bank (ECB) President, Trichet, once again deep-sixed the euro with talk of further rate cuts. He did attempt to water down the message by saying that "any rate cuts would be measured 25 BPS cuts" Memo to Trichet... It doesn't matter what the size of the debasing is, as long as you are going to debase your currency, the markets will make you pay for it!...
  • The Euro Gets Bogged Down...

    In This Issue..

    * A split among ECB ministers...
    * Trichet walks a fine line...
    * China and gold and copper...
    * Canada's economy has a pulse...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday as well, as all our prayers were answered once again, and my scans were clean! YAHOO! They did see something in my lung... It's called pneumonia! I knew this "thing" I had was more potent than anything I had ever had before... So... The proper medicine was dispatched, and hopefully in about 4 days I'll have this whipped! I've got the whole weekend to rest, and drink plenty of fluids! Now if I wasn't sick, that last sentence would take on a whole new meaning, if you get my drift!

    OK... Now that we have that housecleaning out of the way, it's time to go to work! Well, the currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, only to see the euro lose ground in the European session, this morning, as ECB President Trichet, deep sixed the currency this time!...
  • Awful Data!

    In This Issue..

    * Weber opens Pandora's Box...
    * A record low for Capacity Utilization!
    * Do I hear a Chicken?
    * China's economy grows 6.1%

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! The 'Day After' Tax Day... It still hurts! And to think, one of these days, I'll be paying even more, thanks to the direction of our country... And you will be too! There's no two ways about it, the Deficit in funding in Washington D.C. which will be a result of all the spending, is going to require greater revenue... Where does the Gov't get the revenue? From taxes... Of course if it wasn't a debtor nation, it would not have to pay out the large sums of interest on the Treasuries it issues... But, that... Is a discussion for another day.

    The currencies saw more dollar strength yesterday, but it wasn't a result of anything the dollar had going for it... In fact, the results of the data yesterday was all dollar negative... No, this time it came from the Eurozone. Right about the time I was hitting the send button yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) minister, Axel Weber Opened Pandora's Box of questions regarding future direction of the ECB... Let's go to the tape!...
  • All Eyes On Retail Sales...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rebound
    * Singapore's big announcement...
    * China's currency gets back on rally tracks...
    * BHI says to expect a rebound in sales...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm feeling marginally better today, so I've got that going for me! You should have seen the currency screens lighting up yesterday... WOW! A lot of pent up trading from a Friday that saw thin volume due to the Holiday. This type of volume, even with a few countries still on Holiday too!

    The volume... Was all good for the currencies, as that bias to sell dollars I talked about really came shining through on the day. As I signed off yesterday, I told you that the euro had rallied since I had come in, and that rally took off in the early morning trading. The single unit climbed to near 1.34 before giving back ground in the afternoon....
  • A Jobs Jamboree for Friday!

    In This Issue..

    * G-20 Gives the green light to risk takers....
    * Currencies rally on the day...
    * A discussion on capitalism...
    * Yen continues to weaken...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, as I head to my fave city in the country, San Diego. I'll be heading to the airport shortly after sending this out. The currencies rallied nicely yesterday, and I'll tell you why... So, let's go to the tape!

    Well... Remember all the talk about relaxing the FASB mark-to-market rules in the past couple of months? The announcement was made in the communique of the G-20 meeting. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) revised the rules to allow companies to use their 'judgment' to a greater extent in determining the 'fair value' of their assets. The board also made it easier for companies to avoid having to take impairment charges against earnings when they suffer losses on their investments....
  • The waiting game...

    In This Issue..

    * Waiting on G20 and the ECB...
    * US home prices plunge...
    * What will come from G20...
    * ECB to cut rates, but no quantitative easing...

    Good day... The markets will play a waiting game today, and I expect the currencies to trade in a pretty flat range. The focus will be on the G20 which starts tomorrow, and the ECB announcement which will also be released tomorrow. So today I will share my views on both of these topics, but first I will report on what occurred yesterday and overnight in the currency markets.

    The dollar climbed yesterday morning as data released showed US home prices plunged at a record pace and consumer confidence continues to bottom. US home prices fell nearly 19% in January according to the S&P Case Shiller index. This was even worse than economists had predicted, and December's numbers were revised down....
  • ECB rate decision looms...

    In This Issue..

    * ECB rate decision looms...
    * China pushes for a bigger seat at G20...
    * Declining global reserves hurt US Treasuries...
    * Commodity currencies come back...

    Good day... The dollar held on to its gains through out most of the day yesterday, as investors continued to look for a parking place in the volatile markets. But late in the day, the sentiment changed and the dollar started getting sold vs. most of the currencies. This dollar weakness continued overnight with the Euro gaining back 1 cent to trade back above 1.33 and the commodity based currencies of Norway, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa all gaining over 1 percent vs. the greenback.

    What caused this sharp turn around? I had to look hard to find anything which set this reversal in motion, and could only find references to the upcoming ECB rate decision due on Thursday. The euro had come under selling pressure the past few days as currency traders bet the ECB would be cutting rates by 50 basis points on Thursday. This cut would, of course, narrow the yield advantage the Euro holds over the US$ and therefore make it less attractive to investors. There were also many who believed the ECB should follow the path of the US, UK, and Japan and begin using quantitative easing to further force down rates....
  • Bad news for GM and Chrysler rallies the US$...

    In This Issue..

    * Bad news for car makers rallies the US$...
    * Yen comes back strong...
    * Singapore to devalue?...
    * German Chancellor Merkel gives warning...

    Good day... And good Monday morning to all of you. I can't believe March is nearly over, it seems as though it just started. March will end up being a pretty good month for the currency markets, as investors exited the safety of US treasuries and started moving funds back into higher yielding assets. But the markets continue to be volatile, and news released on Friday and over the weekend has sent these investors rushing back to the safe haven of the US dollar.

    The Japanese Yen and US dollar benefited after a US Government official said Friday that bankruptcy may be the best option for GM and Chrysler. The dollar continued to gain strength this morning after US Treasury Secretary Geithner warned yesterday that some financial institutions will need 'large amounts' of aid. When the Treasury Secretary says large amounts, you know it is going to be billions or trillions! Geithner was making the rounds of Sunday morning talk shows to try and justify the money already spent and prepare the taxpayers for another request of funds....