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Beware The Thin Markets...

* ADP prints a huge downside surprise! * Euros get past 1.58... * A Perfect Storm? * Gold continues its move higher! ** Beware The Thin Markets... Good day... And a Happy pseudo-Friday to one and all! It is actually Thursday of course, but it's our Friday, as tomorrow is the 4th of July holiday here in the U.S. I think a lot about the Declaration of Independence these days, as I feel there is a faction of people here in the U.S. that would like to tear up the constitution... So, as we come to the day we celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence let's stop and remember that it's WE THE PEOPLE that make a difference in this country, certainly not anything that comes out of Washington D.C.! OK, I'm down from my soapbox... This could really be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as it has the potential to really kick some rear and take names later. Here's what I'm talking about......

Published Thu, Jul 07 2008 8:08 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, Jobs, Renminbi

Profit Taking Dominates The Day...

* Dollar faces Dynamic Duo this week... * RBA leaves rates unchanged... * Comparing decades... * Tankan is somewhat positive... ** Profit Taking Dominates The Day... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! In keeping with Pfennig tradition, I begin each July with words from one of my fave bands of the 70's, Uriah Heep... There I was on a July morning... (I could go on, but you get the point.) Well, the profit taking that I talked about yesterday morning, continued for most of the morning yesterday, causing the euro to fall from the 1.5810 level I saw when I turned on the screens, to the low 1.57 area. It had to be profit taking because why would anyone buy dollars VS euros as a long time investment, with the dynamic duo of the Jobs Jamboree and an ECB rate decision staring the dollar bulls right in the face this week......

Published Tue, Jul 07 2008 8:12 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, British Pound, Brazilian Real, Oil, Euro, European Central Bank, Consumer Debt

BIS Disses The Dollar!

* Euro & Aussie on the rise... * Yen continues to rise on stock sell off... * Another depressing warning... * Gold takes off! **BIS Disses The Dollar! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! June the 30th... I had a fabulous weekend, with a Cardinals' win Saturday night to top it off! I'm waiting for news from the blood doctor on my latest ultra sound on my leg. And my goofy car is acting up again! UGH! But... Not even that kind of stuff could ruin my weekend! OK... Front and Center this morning, we have the euro climbing above 1.58, and the Aussie dollar hitting a 25-year high! The dollar is getting sold again, as the negativity toward the dollar grows strong again. We also have The Bank for International Settlement (BIS) talking about how a disorderly decline in the dollar can't be ruled out completely, while U.S. Treasury Sec. Paulson is talking about how a strong dollar is a good thing for the U.S....

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 8:41 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Euro, Yen, European Central Bank

Fundamentals Rule!

* Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 8:58 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Inflation, Gold, European Central Bank, Japan, The Fed, Stocks, Warren Buffett

More Awful Data For The U.S!

* Housing continues to rot... * Fed Officials warn the markets... * A new "junk bond" house... * David Galland's thoughts... **More Awful Data For The U.S! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A full day in meetings yesterday had me ready for the easy chair upon arriving home... The Celtics are NBA Champions for the 17th time, congrats to them and their fans, of which I was one as a kid, and through the Larry Bird era... Kind of lost track of the NBA over the years... Another full day of meetings on the docket for yours truly, can't wait! NOT! OK... The currencies really had a boring day yesterday... The bias was to sell dollars, but not by much. The euro gained a little, but has given it all back this morning. The data in the U.S. yesterday was weak if not awful, but the markets are still hanging by a moment on the Fed's rhetoric... Shoot Rudy, even the Financial Times is calling out the Fed and those that are getting carried away with thoughts of 75 BPS in rate hikes this year... The title of the FT article was... "Rate rise expectation overplayed, believe Fed officials"...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:15 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Home Sales, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, Junk Bonds, David Galland

Dollar Receives Some Stimulus...

* Dollar receives some stimulus... * G8 to support $ over the weekend... * India surprises with a rate increase... * BOJ likely to keep rates unchanged... **Dollar receives some stimulus..... Good day... We had a pretty calm day in the markets yesterday as the dollar drifted lower vs. most of the major currencies. But when the Europeans picked up the trading overnight they all but wiped out any advances the currencies had made and the dollar is now sitting slightly higher than it was trading at this time yesterday morning. But I will get to that later; let me start this morning's Pfennig off with some comments Chuck left me on the markets as he signed off his computer last night: "OK... So quite a few of you liked my conspiracy theories yesterday, and even a few had one of their own! This whole mess of Bernanke and Paulson finally sitting up and taking notice in June is just too much for me. I think there's got to be a story here that we don't know about... Yet!...

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 9:29 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Euro, European Central Bank, Retail Sales, Bank of Japan, India, G8

When Will The Fed Be Called Out?

* More dollar strength... * Conspiracy theories... * BOC leaves rates unchanged... * A euro chart discussion... **Front and Center this morning, the dollar continued to hold the advantage over the euro and other currencies yesterday and in the overnight market... The euro did attempt to rally overnight, but that move was thwarted, as an European Central Bank (ECB) member, Stark, threw cold water on the rally. Stark, said that "the markets have understood the Governing Council's signal", which meant the markets understood that the ECB was going to raise rates in July... But then the cold water came flying out of the bucket as Stark then said, "However, we are not talking about a series of rate increases."...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:41 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, The Fed, Bank of Canada

Reigniting Fears...

* Risk Aversion returns! * Central Bank meeting week... * Looking at dollar / euro... * CFTC gets investigated......

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 8:04 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Euro, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, CFTC, T-Bills, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

London Traders Buy Dollars...

* U.S. and U.K. Holidays... * Kiwi "catches up"... * Brazil's Current Account... * Watch out for protectionism......

Published Tue, May 05 2008 9:53 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Trade Deficit, Brazilian Real, Kiwi, European Central Bank, Eurozone

IFO Send Euros Soaring Higher!

* The euro rallies again! * Talking about Cross trades... * Kohn sings Ray Stevens... * FOMC minutes today......

Published Wed, May 05 2008 9:30 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Bonds, Oil, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, FOMC

I Love It When A Plan Comes Together!

* The dollar trades weaker... * N.Z. Retail Sales collapse! * U.S. Tics recover... * A note from David Galland!...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 11:23 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Euro, New Zealand, European Central Bank, Eurozone, TIC Flow, Industrial Production

The Yen Is Back!

* The dollar stumbles... * BOE & ECB leave rates unchanged... * Trade Deficit to "narrow"? * Another record level for oil!...

Published Fri, May 05 2008 9:22 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Trade Deficit, Dollar, Oil, Yen, European Central Bank, Bank of England

Cinco de Mayo!

* Jobs fall -20K... * But dollar bulls celebrate! * Carry Trades hurting yen and francs again... * ECB to leave rates unchanged......

Published Mon, May 05 2008 10:02 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, European Central Bank, Carry Trade, Economy, Jobs

A Transparent Fed?

* The dollar swings the hammer again... * Begin the emptying of the data cupboard! * Regurgitating stories on the euro... * The Mogambo on a Tuesday!...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Trade Deficit, Dollar, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, The Fed, Mogambo

A Big Data Week!

* Some healing in the currencies... * U of Mich. Confidence falls... * Unloading Treasuries? * Turning the tables in N.Z.?...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2008 9:28 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Currencies, Dollar, Inflation, China, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, GDP, Deficit, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

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