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  • Aussie Job Creation Soars Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally on Wednesday...
    * And hold on to gains overnight!
    * Loonies outperform on the day...
    * More 'an inconvenient debt'...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It sure has been a Tub Thumpin' Thursday so far, as the Asian and European markets are hopping, and in Australia, the jobs just keep coming! All that and more on this Tub Thumpin' Thursday, that, as our little Christine would tell me is 'my Friday'!

    OK... Front and Center this morning, yesterday I told you, well, let's just go to the archives and see what I told you word for word... Pfennig 7/7/10: 'Today, we'll see the latest labor report from Australia. In recent months, the jobs data has consistently surprised to the upside each month, so it's not like going out on a limb to say that I expect the job creation to be better than the +15,000 that's forecast.'...
  • Global Growth Takes A Hit!

    In This Issue..

    * Back to the 'safe haven' trades...
    * The dollar hammers the euro!
    * ECB & BOE meet today...
    * Brazilian games with the real...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! On one hand it's tub Thumpin' because I'm here in what was sunny Florida yesterday... And on the other hand, it's not tub Thumpin' because I'm here in Florida! Yeah, writing on the road is not one of my fave things to do, but I'll struggle through it...

    Well... The news that Chris brought to you yesterday, regarding the mini-rally in the currencies, led by the euro climbing back to 1.40, was completely washed out by the time the wheels on his plane touched down here in Orlando yesterday afternoon. Chris had said as he signed off that the dollar was being bought right then, and he was right... And that buying of the dollar lasted all day!...
  • Back To the Greece Debacle...

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar rallies overnight...
    * Gold loses $10...
    * Retail Sales for December are negative!
    * Chinese games with the renminbi continue...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I said on the way to work, as I hit each stop light on green, that it was going to be a Fantastico Friday! I mean, why not? 1. it's a Friday, 2. it's a payday Friday, 3. it's the start of a 3-day Holiday weekend! Shoot Rudy, I thought to myself, as I drove to work, 'nothing can spoil this day'...

    But... Then I got to work, turned on the currency screens, and it hit me like a slap in the face! The euro has led the non-dollar currencies down VS the dollar overnight... After spending 3 days this week, hovering back and forth over and under the 1.45 handle, the euro finally succumbed to some selling......
  • High Yielders Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * Is it Game On for Carry Trades again?
    * A Trade-Free Zone for Southeast Asia!
    * 10-year yield rise will shut down the mortgage rally...
    * A min-rally for the euro this morning...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm already draggin' the line today on the 2nd day back from vacation! UGH! The High Yielders are back to work this week, as the currencies of Australia, South Africa, and Brazil are attempting a come-back VS the dollar. This and more, as we head into the last Tuesday of 2009...

    Well... The last Monday of 2009, was uneventful with the currencies remaining in Tupperware ranges (tight that is!), and with little to show in the way of any measurable appreciation VS the dollar. There was no sign of the U.S. Corporations repatriating their profits yesterday as was rumored... Of course they still have today, tomorrow and Thursday to do so...

    ...
  • It’s A Jobs Jamboree Friday for 12/04/2009!

    In This Issue..

    * Commodity Currencies rebound...
    * Gold sees profit taking...
    * Canary in a coal mine...
    * It's Moving Day!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's Moving Day for us here in the EverBank St. Louis office, as we will pick up our belongings and walk next door, to a larger, space, with some incredible views! We moved into this space 5 years ago, and we've been busting at the seams, with the threads holding on to dear life, for over a year now... So, this move is welcomed. Like I said the other day, in 1999, I sat in an office that we rented from the kind folks at Paylinx, and that was the beginning... From that tiny office to this! WOW!

    ...
  • RBA's Stevens Turns On The Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * The dollar bounces back a bit...
    * Euro retreats from highs...
    * Is the economic recovery for real?
    * Ignored data...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I believe it will be a Fantastico Friday as well, because when I go in my car this morning to come to work, the radio was playing, 'It's a Beautiful Morning'... It had to be a sign, right? I certainly hope so any way!

    Well, I'm back! I have to say that I've never been to the mountains of North Georgia before, and they are beautiful... Well, most of the parts of this great country are, when I come to think of it! Well, it was nice to walk in the door yesterday and sit down, close my eyes, and get work off my brain!...
  • ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...

    In This Issue..

    * ECB & BOE leave rates unchanged...
    * Trichet makes a mistake in judgment...
    * Asian central banks defend the $..
    * Gold pauses...

    Good day...Had a horrible night here in St. Louis, as every one of our teams let victory slip away. As you all know, Chuck drove to Columbia to watch his MIZZOU Tigers take on one of their arch rivals in a rare Thursday night matchup. The game went well into the night, as it was delayed due to problems with the lights at the stadium, so Chuck probably didn't get home until early this morning. I'll have the con on the Pfennig today, but Chuck will be back in the saddle again on Monday.

    As predicted, both European central banks kept interest rates unchanged. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept their benchmark interest rates at record lows in an effort to keep stimulating their economies. Trichet signaled that the ECB has no plans to raise rates in the near future, stating that the current level is 'appropriate' for the current economic environment. 'The recovery is expected to be rather uneven,' Trichet said. 'It will be supported in the short term by temporary factors but will be hampered in the medium term by balance sheet issues at financial and non-financial institutions.'...
  • Magical Currency Tours!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies get whacked by Geithner!
    * Big Ben wants the budget deficit cut!
    * BOE and ECB meetings today...
    * I told you this was going to get ugly...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes... Tub Thumpin' because I said so! Yesterday was absolutely a 10 on the crazy meter, and We the People, just continue to sit and take whatever the Government and media tell us is 'best for us in these uncommon times'... I've got some interesting words on this later in the letter... It's time for me to get on my soap box once again, so... At least I've prepared you! But first... Some currency news!

    Well... Yesterday, I left you with the thought that the currencies were selling off, after the Asian Central Banks all made statements regarding their support of the dollar as the world's reserve currency... Here are some further thoughts on that......
  • Dollar Shows Additional Strength...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro at one-month low... * Trichet talks rate cuts... * Riksbank & Bank of Canada this week... * The Mogambo on a Monday!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Today is a special day, in that it is the Big Boss Frank Trotter's birthday! Happy Birthday Boss! Actually Frank is more of a very good, long time friend, mentor, and then boss. We've worked together for a very long time... I tell people at shows that Frank and I do together, that we've been working together for so long... The Dead Sea wasn't even sick when we began working together! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

    OK... A bad day a the office for the euro and other currencies on Friday, and then last night in the overnight markets... European Central Bank (ECB) President, Trichet, once again deep-sixed the euro with talk of further rate cuts. He did attempt to water down the message by saying that "any rate cuts would be measured 25 BPS cuts" Memo to Trichet... It doesn't matter what the size of the debasing is, as long as you are going to debase your currency, the markets will make you pay for it!...
  • The Euro Gets Bogged Down...

    In This Issue..

    * A split among ECB ministers...
    * Trichet walks a fine line...
    * China and gold and copper...
    * Canada's economy has a pulse...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday as well, as all our prayers were answered once again, and my scans were clean! YAHOO! They did see something in my lung... It's called pneumonia! I knew this "thing" I had was more potent than anything I had ever had before... So... The proper medicine was dispatched, and hopefully in about 4 days I'll have this whipped! I've got the whole weekend to rest, and drink plenty of fluids! Now if I wasn't sick, that last sentence would take on a whole new meaning, if you get my drift!

    OK... Now that we have that housecleaning out of the way, it's time to go to work! Well, the currencies traded in a very tight range yesterday, only to see the euro lose ground in the European session, this morning, as ECB President Trichet, deep sixed the currency this time!...
  • Gold As An Inflation Fighter!

    * BOE to cut rates today... * ECB will wait to cut for now... * Black clouds forming for India? * German factory Orders plunge! ** Gold As An Inflation Fighter! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Day One at the Orlando World Money Show (WMS) went well. My room for the presentation was packed! It was standing room only, and the good part was the fact that there were only about 30 Pfennig readers in the crowd. I say that not because I have something against Pfennig readers, oh Lord, they are dear readers! The reason I say that is I like to know how many of the non-readers I can convert to Pfennig readers!...
  • Retail sales disappoint even more…

    * Retail sales disappoint.... * Chuck's views on the Lone Prop... * Waiting on the ECB... * Emerging market currencies sell off... ** Retail sales disappoint... Good day... The big news yesterday was the retail sales numbers, which fell twice as much as expected. Chuck predicted a tough Christmas season, and the BHI was right again. Sales dropped 2.7 percent according to yesterday's report from the Commerce Department. The falling home prices, rising job losses, and tighter credit have all combined to finally force US consumers to adjust their spending habits. No matter how low retailers slashed prices during the recent Christmas season, US consumers just weren't buying. The economy is forcing consumers to wean themselves off of the dangerous drug of easy credit. In spite of Bernanke and Paulson's attempts to get consumers borrowing and spending again, the economic slowdown is forcing the US consumers to reign in their spending. But while this change in consumer habits is good for the longer term economic health of the US, it only serves to drive the economy even further into recession over the short term. And the bad economic data just keeps rolling in. U.S. foreclosure filings spiked by more than 81% in 2008, a record, according to a report released Thursday, and they're up 225% compared with 2006. The total foreclosure filings in 2008 topped 3 million and showed no signs of slowing down in spite of the efforts of both the government and banking industry to slow them down. Foreclosure filings actually accelerated in the 2nd half of the year, increasing 17% in December over November of 2008....
  • A Jobs Disaster!

    * Retail Jobs are cut in December! * Dollar rallies on renewed Trading Theme... * Looking for the Obama bounce... * High yielders get sold... ** A Jobs Disaster! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A grand weekend for yours truly with time spent resting, watching football, Alex play basketball, dinner with friends, and finally a wonderful dinner with my kids as we celebrated my oldest son, Andrew's, birthday. Whew! I'm at work about an hour earlier than usual this morning, as I couldn't sleep, and just decided to get up and come in... UGH! OK... Well, the big news this morning, is that the Jobs Jamboree was just awful, but "not as bad as some forecast" and therefore the dollar rallied. OK, I'm shaking my head in disgust too, but that's what the headlines reported later in the day on Friday, as the reason for the dollar rally. But let's get to the meat of the Jobs report... First of all, jobs lost in December were -525K, which was bang on the forecasts. But here's the two things I found to be very scary in the report... First of all, November's awful print of -533K was revised downward to -584K (recall, I questioned a month ago if it would reach -600K on the revision)... And here's the really scary number... -67K Retail jobs were cut in December... That's right, December! The month when retailers are supposed to be on fire!...
  • More Dollar Strength!

    * Trichet's words sink the euro rally... * A New Conspiracy theory... * Japanese yen continues to rally! * An Announcement... ** More Dollar Strength! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It has not started out as a Fantastico Friday, just a Fun Friday... No wait! Just because the dollar is running around the end with the ball, and the currencies can't catch up with the greenback, is no reason to allow it to filter through to my feelings about each and every day! That's right! I'm feeling like there's a ton of weight on my shoulders right now, with this dollar strength, and everyone jumping ship... But, I promised myself over a year ago that if I was able to fight cancer and come out on top, that I would celebrate each day... And that's what I try to do! So... I'll make it a Fantastico Friday after all! The euro's two-day rally VS the dollar got stuffed in a box and shipped to sea yesterday. The single unit looked as though it would add to the rally that took it above 1.45 but as I was signing off yesterday the euro was giving back its gains VS the dollar... And soon, it would give back more than the two-day rally's gains....
  • Nowhere to hide...

    * Nowhere to hide... * Trichet sounds dovish... * US fundamentals haven't changed... * Olympics open up in China.. ** Nowhere to hide... Good day...The dollar continued to take no prisoners in its move higher. The newly strong greenback was up vs. every currency we track yesterday, and has rallied over 3% vs. the major currencies over the past week. It has been a pretty tough week for yours truly, as I have tried to make sense of this dollar rebound. Chuck can't get back to St. Louis quick enough! The dollar started its big move just after the Trichet gave his statement on his views of the European economy. The ECB left rates unchanged, but Trichet said economic growth will be 'particularly weak' through the third quarter, suggesting policy makers will be wary of raising interest rates again to curb inflation. While the ECB's decision to raise borrowing costs last month was justified by the inflation threat, risks to growth 'are materializing,' Trichet told reporters. 'Overall, downside risks prevail.'...