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Currencies Rally On Bad U.S. Data...

* Dollar rally is stopped! * FOMC meeting minutes... * Housing data you won't see on TV! * Sweden to sell Gold... ** Currencies Rally On Bad U.S. Data... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm back. I just couldn't answer the bell yesterday morning, as the night before was simply rough on your old Pfennig writer. I'm in my last week of treatment and it has been a tough row to hoe, and I feel bad that I was not able to stiffen the back and make it through the day. But, no biggie, I've got great people here to take care of things when I'm gone... When I finally dragged myself out of bed yesterday, I saw that the dollar was taking liberties with the euro and other currencies once again. It was another game of "your economy is worse than mine", as German Business Confidence took a ride on the slippery slope down. You should have seen the "bandwagon jumpers" falling all over themselves to write about how cool it was to own the dollar. I chuckled, no big laugh as that might upset my stomach! But, their claim to be cool, was quickly squashed like a bug, when the housing numbers printed, and then later in the day, with the latest FOMC meeting minutes... More on this in a minute.......

Published Wed, Aug 08 2008 9:02 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Gold, Home Sales, Euro, European Central Bank, Sweden, FOMC

A Huge Data Week...

* Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...

Published Mon, Aug 08 2008 9:43 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Gold, Ben Bernanke, European Central Bank, Canada, The Fed

Retail Sales Disappoint Again...

* Dollar rally continues... * U.S. data continues to be weak... * Gold and the A$... * Sterling melts away... ** Retail Sales Disappoint... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Michael Phelps didn't swim in any finals yesterday, so no Gold for the U.S! I'm just floored by this kid! My oldest son, Andrew, was a pretty good swimmer in his day, but my goodness, this kid is on a different planet! OK... Well, front and center this morning, we have a report that just printed that shows U.S. Home Foreclosures rose 55% in July. Bank seizures almost tripled according to RealtyTrac Inc. That's sad folks, simply sad... I look at this report and shake my head in disgust for Alan Greenspan. Yes, Big Al Greenspan is the root of all evil in the housing meltdown... Sure there were the greedy folks that booked loans that shouldn't have happened and all that, but down at the root of the meltdown you'll find Big Al's picture!...

Published Thu, Aug 08 2008 9:03 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Brazilian Real, Inflation, Gold, European Central Bank, Retail Sales, Eurozone, Foreclosures, Consumer Debt

Fed not as hawkish as expected...

* Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....

Published Wed, Aug 08 2008 10:12 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Oil, Inflation, Commodities, Gold, European Central Bank, Canada, Bank of England, Interest Rates, The Fed, FOMC

Beware The Thin Markets...

* ADP prints a huge downside surprise! * Euros get past 1.58... * A Perfect Storm? * Gold continues its move higher! ** Beware The Thin Markets... Good day... And a Happy pseudo-Friday to one and all! It is actually Thursday of course, but it's our Friday, as tomorrow is the 4th of July holiday here in the U.S. I think a lot about the Declaration of Independence these days, as I feel there is a faction of people here in the U.S. that would like to tear up the constitution... So, as we come to the day we celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence let's stop and remember that it's WE THE PEOPLE that make a difference in this country, certainly not anything that comes out of Washington D.C.! OK, I'm down from my soapbox... This could really be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as it has the potential to really kick some rear and take names later. Here's what I'm talking about......

Published Thu, Jul 07 2008 8:08 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, Jobs, Renminbi

BIS Disses The Dollar!

* Euro & Aussie on the rise... * Yen continues to rise on stock sell off... * Another depressing warning... * Gold takes off! **BIS Disses The Dollar! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! June the 30th... I had a fabulous weekend, with a Cardinals' win Saturday night to top it off! I'm waiting for news from the blood doctor on my latest ultra sound on my leg. And my goofy car is acting up again! UGH! But... Not even that kind of stuff could ruin my weekend! OK... Front and Center this morning, we have the euro climbing above 1.58, and the Aussie dollar hitting a 25-year high! The dollar is getting sold again, as the negativity toward the dollar grows strong again. We also have The Bank for International Settlement (BIS) talking about how a disorderly decline in the dollar can't be ruled out completely, while U.S. Treasury Sec. Paulson is talking about how a strong dollar is a good thing for the U.S....

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 8:41 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, Oil, Gold, Euro, Yen, European Central Bank

Fundamentals Rule!

* Stocks fall 358 points! * Japan's inflation problem... * Profit taking in reals... * Buffett warns of stagflation... ** Fundamentals Rule! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Hopefully a Fantastico Friday too! It's the last Friday of June... Where did the month go? WOW! Next Friday, we'll be celebrating our nation's birthday... Can you believe that? The 4th of July? It just finally warmed up here in St. Louis, and it's already the going to be the 4th! Amazing... How the time flies when you're having fun! And Fun is what I'm having... With every day that passes, I get a little stronger, and another day further from the pain and problems of last summer... How could I not be having fun? OK... Well... Recall yesterday when I told you a Big Bank's chartist said the euro would top out at 1.5726, and that I hoped it would fly right by that? It did! It did! It did fly right past that! I love it when fundamentals rule! The euro has climbed to 1.5765 this morning as I write after spending most of the day yesterday taking liberties with the dollar. Another chartist said yesterday that the euro would re-visit the 1.60 level if it breached 1.5785... So, we've got that going for us, eh?...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 8:58 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Inflation, Gold, European Central Bank, Japan, The Fed, Stocks, Warren Buffett

IFO Send Euros Soaring Higher!

* The euro rallies again! * Talking about Cross trades... * Kohn sings Ray Stevens... * FOMC minutes today......

Published Wed, May 05 2008 9:30 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Bonds, Oil, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, The Fed, FOMC

A Big Data Week!

* Some healing in the currencies... * U of Mich. Confidence falls... * Unloading Treasuries? * Turning the tables in N.Z.?...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2008 9:28 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Currencies, Dollar, Inflation, China, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, GDP, Deficit, U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index

Dollar Rally Fizzles Out...

* Euro turns on a dime... * Hawkish statements from Liebscher... * Dennis Gartman abandons Gold... * Oil hits $117!...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2008 8:51 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Gold, Euro, European Central Bank, Klaus Liebscher, Dennis Gartman

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