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* Mixed bag o' data... * Trading theme in place... * election tomorrow... * Consumer Spending collapses! ** Rate Cut Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to November! For almost 20 years, November was my least favorite month, cold gray days, dead looking trees, bad memories of the month, and all that... But I just don't get all involved in that stuff anymore, as my different outlook on life tells me that every day is a great day, and months just contain great days! OK... On Friday, we saw more and more of the same trading theme, and in the overnight markets last night, more and more of it again! And Carry Trades are back for the moment anyway, as stocks rebounded late in the week to end the month with a brighter outlook than they had earlier in the month. But, in my view from the cheap seats, this stock rebound is much like what they call in the markets, a dead cat bounce, (OK no animals were hurt here!) which means... That stocks are going nowhere, but bounces can still happen. I say that stocks are going nowhere, and I'm not even your last choice as a stock jockey... I just survey the economic horizon and see a deeper recession than we are currently experiencing, and a "spent" Consumer, which is going to lead to awful earnings for Corporations, and thus stocks not going anywhere......

* Bernanke gets help opening the spigot... * Euro and Pound rally... * Yen to continue to benefit from carry reversals...* Aussie $ rallies... ** Fed floods the markets with US$... Good day...and happy Columbus day! This is an official bank holiday here in the states, so all of the banks are closed, but the stock markets are open. We will have a half day here on the desk to try and catch up with all of the work which has been piling up the past few weeks. The phones are turned off, since it is an official bank holiday, but we will be checking messages and try to get back to everyone as quickly as possible. It is a very unusual holiday, as the banks are all closed with no funds transfers possible, but the stock markets are open. Currency desks are lightly staffed, so we will have to really work to get the trades done this morning. These strange holidays usually can lead to some real market volatility, and with today will probably be another rollercoaster. In an all out effort to ease the credit freeze, the Federal Reserve recruited help from the ECB, Bank of England, and the Swiss central bank to flood the market with US$. These central banks will auction unlimited dollar funds with maturities of seven days, 28 days, and 84 days at a fixed interest rate. This move is unprecedented, as all previous dollar swaps were capped at a maximum amount while these auctions will be for unlimited funds....

* Euro falls to 1-year low.... * Bailing out foreign investors? * O'Neill has a better plan... * ISM collapses! But the dollar rallies... ** Senate Passes The Bailout Package! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Rocktober started off with a bang for the dollar, as the green/peachback continued to gain VS the euro and other currencies, pushing the euro to a one-year low VS the dollar. We all sat here and shook our heads in disbelief yesterday, as the U.S. ISM Index (manufacturing) collapsed in September, but the dollar rallied anyway. The ISM Index fell from 49 to 43.5, the lowest print since Rocktober 2001, which happened to be near the end of the 2001 recession and right after the awful period following 9/11. So... To me... This really paints the recession picture clear and bright for all to see... So, why did the dollar rally with this albatross around its neck?...

* Not your father's currency traders.... * The euro does the rope-a-dope... * Deep Thoughts * Jimmy Rogers on the bail out... ** Scaredy Cats! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Hurricane Ike moves into the Gulf... Which way it goes from here isn't good for anyone. We had another day of watching the euro rally during the day, only to see it fizzle out by the end of the day. I go home each night and think all the way home about all this stuff going on, and wonder just who in their right minds would be buying dollars right now... Scaredy Cats that's who... So... Here you go... Deep Thoughts by chuck butler... Here's the skinny on that thought... Ever since the Fed, Bank of Japan (BOC), and European Central Bank (ECB) intervened in their coordinated, covert operation, market participants and traders are scared to death to short dollars, for fear of more intervention that could wipe out their trades, and post losses for them. Come on... These aren't the currency traders that I grew up with! Those traders took any Central Bank intervention as a "challenge" and would laugh in the face of Central Bank intervention! Central Bank intervention usually meant it was a desperate measure to shore up a currency, and that was like blood in the water for a shark... Currency traders would hit that currency even harder! But not these scaredy cats! That's one thing I think about... And then there's this......

* Euro fights back... * Germany Factory Orders drop... * BOE & ECB meeting today... * Riksbank raises rates! ** Central Bank Meeting Day... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! A rainy Thursday for us here in St. Louis, as the rains from Gustav reach this area. There's another Hurricane in the Caribbean now... There are two Central Bank meetings going on as I write this morning. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) both are meeting this morning, and both are expected to leave rates unchanged. More on this in a bit, the Fed's Beige Book, and more this morning, so let's go! Front and Center this morning, the euro spent yesterday on the rally tracks recovering from a 5-month low... When I turned on the screens this morning, the single unit was trading above 1.45 again, on expectations that the ECB would leave rates unchanged. But I've seen a softening in the euro, since arriving, that has come from an unexpected drop in German Factory Orders for the month of July....

* ECB to change dollar's direction?... * BOE leaves rates unchanged... * The worst is not over in US housing... * Japan's government signals expansion is over.. ** ECB to change dollar's direction?... Good day...The dollar continued its assault on the world's currencies yesterday as the dollar index moved above the 74 handle. I pulled a chart off the Bloomberg on my way out the door last night, and it showed the only major currency which was up vs. the US$ yesterday was the Swedish krona, which managed a .07% increase. This dollar rally has legs, but I still question the fundamentals behind the dollars surge. Today may be the day we see the dollar finally make a turn, as the ECB will be announcing their rate decision. It is not that I expect Trichet to raise rates, but I do expect him to sound hawkish and refocus the markets attention on Eurozone inflation and away from worries about growth. Two reports out of Germany this morning will bolster Trichet's hawkish stance. German exports rose more than economists expected in June, defying a stronger euro and pushing the trade surplus to a record. Exports increased 4.2% from may, the most since September 2006. German industrial production also increased for the first time in four months with output rising 1.7% from a year earlier. The IMF last month rose its forecast for German economic growth this year and said the global slowdown linked to the US financial crisis was less severe than it expected....

* ADP prints a huge downside surprise! * Euros get past 1.58... * A Perfect Storm? * Gold continues its move higher! ** Beware The Thin Markets... Good day... And a Happy pseudo-Friday to one and all! It is actually Thursday of course, but it's our Friday, as tomorrow is the 4th of July holiday here in the U.S. I think a lot about the Declaration of Independence these days, as I feel there is a faction of people here in the U.S. that would like to tear up the constitution... So, as we come to the day we celebrate the signing of the Declaration of Independence let's stop and remember that it's WE THE PEOPLE that make a difference in this country, certainly not anything that comes out of Washington D.C.! OK, I'm down from my soapbox... This could really be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday as it has the potential to really kick some rear and take names later. Here's what I'm talking about......