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  • The Euro stays on the move…

    In This Issue..

    * Euro stays on the move...
    * Soros calls for more stimulus spending...
    * Commodity currencies suffer...
    * Cards sweep the Dodgers...

    Good day... And welcome to another week. Chuck is on his way to Vancouver this morning to speak at the big Agora Finanacial Investment Symposium later this week; so I will have the honor of bringing you the Pfennig over the next few days. But fans of Chuck shouldn't get too upset, as he always sends me Pfennig Pfodder from the road. The euro has certainly been on the move lately, and Chuck left me the following before signing off last week:

    Well... Mid-morning last Friday, we saw the rug pulled from under the euro, after the single unit had recovered to 1.30. Yes, the euro traded at 1.30 on Friday morning, but that was before a Consumer Confidence report printed in the U.S. and showed a HUGE drop!...
  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • Risk On, Risk Off...

    In This Issue..

    * Bundesbank hurts euro...
    * A$ is best performer overnight...
    * Is Gold a euro replacement?
    * 10-year Treasury yields soar higher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because I got the go-ahead for the next step to replace my eye with a prosthesis that looks like an eye... Just looked up to see Robin Meade back from vacation, so it's a double Tub Thumpin' Thursday now!

    OK... Recall yesterday's talk about the trading pattern that had existed for 4 consecutive days? Well, that was throw to the roadside yesterday, as the U.S. session went back to beating on the euro, and other currencies......
  • Stepping Up On The Soap Box...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro continues to get sold...
    * Freddie Mac needs $10 Billion more!
    * Auctioning another $80 Billion in Treasuries...
    * Norges Bank does the right thing!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I don't really have a reason for it to a Tub Thumpin' Thursday, just thought it would be good to get going into the weekend early! I'm slowly getting back into the swing of things here. There's a parking issue that's got me so ticked off right now, but that's not what you came to read about, so... Let's get going!

    Well... The rout that was on with the euro continued for most of the morning yesterday, but then suddenly, it stopped, and we saw the currencies & Gold turn around... It was just like I had said the day before, that the euro would probably reach oversold levels, and we could see a mini-rally... And we did!...
  • German Business Confidence Slides...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * $81 Billion in Treasury auctions this week!
    * Fitch fans the flames of a fire in the U.K....
    * Aussie Business Confidence rises...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I didn't start out this Tuesday on the right foot, and now I'm really running late! Oh well...

    The non-dollar currencies didn't move much yesterday, the euro bumped up and down against the 1.50 figure, while the A$ did the same against 93-cents, and Swiss against parity... So the currencies are trading in the same clothes they went to bed in last night!

    The Big Dog, euro, did attempt to move stronger into the 1.50 level, but that move was thwarted by a poor reading of German Investor Confidence this morning. German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank ZEW, reported that their index had fallen to 51.1 this month VS the 56 in October. Most of those Germans surveyed said that they expect the economic recovery to be slow once the Gov't removes the stimulus in the economy. So... Previous euphoria is being replaced by realism... But that's OK... Better to have a reality grip on things than to go around thinking that everything is seashells and balloons......
  • German Business Confidence Continues to Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Tuesday
    * But see profit taking later in the day...
    * Looking for yield?
    * China expected to get back to 10% growth!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! When I signed off yesterday morning, I told you that I was watching a mini-rally in the currencies. Well, that mini-rally turned into a real rally as the morning went along. Especially, after the risk assets got a boost from the Consumer Confidence revival. Yes, Brother Love's traveling salvation show revival, a.k.a. Consumer Confidence was much stronger than forecast, and the risk assets took off!

    By mid-afternoon, the euro was pushing 1.4350, and all the 'little dogs' were following along with their own version of a rally VS the dollar. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, and profit taking set in... Oh brother! Can't these guys wait until there is really a BIG move before they take profits? Oh well, I know, you're saying, 'But Chuck, don't you always say that it's not a profit until you take it?' Yes, that's correct... But the rest of us just want to have a diversifying asset in our investment portfolio, and are not interested in 1/2 euro moves to take a 'profit'!

    ...
  • $75 Billion In New Treasuries This week...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies adrift all day yesterday...
    * Data prints begin today with Productivity...
    * Stop to think!
    * Chinese data is impressive...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, no data yesterday left the markets drifting about the open waters. Stocks rebounded, which gave the risk assets a bias to be bought, but for the most part, the day was much like being a drift in the ocean, with no direction or cares!

    That will all change beginning today with the Nonfarm Productivity report for the 2nd QTR... Long time readers know my dislike for this data, as I believe it simply shows that one person works longer hours! The Fed Heads used to be all over this data like a cheap suit, and probably still trip over themselves to see the data when it prints... But to me, it's not what Big Al Greenspan made it out to be......
  • The U.S. Treasury Moves The Goal Posts...

    In This Issue..

    * A 4-day rally gets stopped at the border...
    * Home Prices fall at a -18.12% pace...
    * Alice Rivlin gives her 2-cents...
    * Kiwi bond maturities galore next month...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! As tradition with the Pfennig would have it, here's my introduction to July... There I was... On a July morning... Looking for love... With the strength of a new day dawning, and... The beautiful sun...

    Yes, for those 'old rockers' from the 70's like me... That's Uriah Heep, at their best!

    OK... So, welcome to July! The last day of June was quite the volatile one to say the least! There we were waiting for the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index to print, and show that home prices were still down by quite a bit, when it did, it did, it printed at -18.12%... But! The media was all over that like a cheap suit, clamoring that the spiral down in Home Prices had come to and end! Which, may be true... But wouldn't you want to wait to see if next month's report confirms it? And... By the way... Since when does -18.12% fall in home prices beckon a rally? Yesterday, would be that answer!...
  • A Turn Around Tuesday!

    In This Issue..

    * Another Treasury auction today...
    * Goldman says to buy euros!
    * Oil fuels Commodity Currencies!
    * RBNZ to meet tonight...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... Yesterday was 'Turn Around Tuesday'! Add to that, the fact that there were a number of reasons for the euro to lead the charge for currencies VS the dollar yesterday. And... A word from one of the economists that I keep on my list of 'to read'... So, let's get to the tape from Turn Around Tuesday!

    I heard yesterday someone say 'well, we sure turned around today in the currencies'... And I thought, Shoot Rudy, why not name it Turn Around Tuesday? Then I went back to the history page on my trusty Bloomberg, and saw that on 4 of the last 5 Tuesdays, the currencies did in fact 'turn around' their performances from the day before! Not that this is something we can hand our hats on, and make trades accordingly on Monday nights / Tuesday mornings... But, it's an interesting fact nonetheless!...
  • A Currency Rally For The Ages!

    In This Issue..

    * Negative momentum towards the dollar grows...
    * Treasury yields continue to rise...
    * Fundamentals and Charts coincide!
    * Silver has best week in 22 years!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm going to make the call and say this is going to be a Fantastico Friday! The sun is supposed to come out today after a week of rain, it's Friday, it's pay-day, and... The currencies have put on a rally that's the stuff that movies are made from! And... Once again, there were signs yesterday that the break of the link to stocks was in place! Take all that, and the fact that we woke up this morning for a brand new day... And you have a Fantastico Friday!

    OK... So front and center this morning let me tell you about the currency rally that began yesterday morning... Let's look back at what I said as I was getting ready to hit the send button yesterday morning... 'So... As I get ready to head to the Big Finish, I see that the currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, are getting off the porch once again to chase the dollar.'...
  • Russian Rumors...

    In This Issue..

    * dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
    * Emerging Markets decouple...
    * A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
    * Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

    Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....
  • A Rare Day, Indeed!

    In This Issue..

    * Stocks, bonds and dollars get sold!
    * The U.S. to lose our AAA credit rating?
    * A return to fundamentals day 2...
    * A Corporate Feed Good story for a Friday...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday here in St. Louis, as we bask in the sun of a 3-game sweep by my beloved Cardinals over the Cubbies! It's also the beginning of a 3-day Holiday weekend. It's Memorial Day on Monday! Time to reflect and give thanks for those that put their lives on the line for our freedom...

    OK... Front and Center this morning the Big Dog (euro) has left the porch and is chasing the dollar down the street! I got home yesterday afternoon, rested, and then checked the currencies at the NY closing before they handed the books over to Japan, and saw that the euro had leap-frogged to the 1.39 handle! WOW! What was going on?...
  • Currencies Continue to Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * An auction announcement...
    * Euro soars!
    * Gold back to $900...
    * Who's telling the truth?

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to you! A Fantastico Friday to boot! I leave for Bermuda very early tomorrow morning, so no late night shenanigans for me tonight! HA! I'm still trying to make sure I've beaten that pneumonia, and being a "good boy"!

    Well... Front and center this morning, we have a Big currency rally going on... Recall yesterday, I told you of the beginning of the rally... Well, it really got legs as the day went on, and once again, it was not sold off overnight, but added to! Here's what I believe, and you won't see this anywhere else, my friends, is moving these currencies so violently higher VS the dollar......
  • Hold on to your hat...

    * Fed opens the pocket book...
    * Creative measures...
    * Inflation/dollar debasement concern...
    * Currencies soar...

    Good day...And a Tub-Thumpin' Thursday to you. Well, yesterday was certainly one wild Wednesday for the record books. It started out like any other day we've had over the past week or so with the dollar down and many of the currencies up a bit, but nothing really out of the ordinary. Then it happened...the Fed adjourned and hit the markets with a big one.

    Many of the market participants weren't looking for an announcement or plans from the Fed to buy Treasuries today, but instead, were anticipating further discussions on how to proceed. It appears there has been disagreement on how to provide aggressive actions with interest rates already at rock bottom. The way they saw it, there were three options. One was to increase the TALF to buy frozen assets, another way was to expand purchases of mortgage backed securities and agency securities, or to begin buying long term Treasuries....