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  • A down day for the dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * Jobs disappoint...
    * Factory orders hold up...
    * Franc rises to record against euro...
    * Another feather in the hat for Canada...

    Good day and a Terrific Thursday to you...Its always nice to flip the calendar over to April each year, because in my book at least, this is the unofficial start of spring. We were greeted with a picture perfect day yesterday and today should be even better here in St. Louis. There's just a lot to be said about walking outside without a coat, seeing everything turning green, and hearing the birds chirp. Both Chuck and Chris and out today so I have the honor of bringing you today's Pfennig. Since I don't have any jokes to share with you on this April Fools Day, I'll get right to the meat and potatoes (which is probably a good thing since my joke telling abilities aren't exactly at par.)

    ...
  • Gold Hits $1,200!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day...
    * Swiss franc hits parity to the dollar!
    * RBA to continue raising rates in 2010...
    * BRIC MarketSafe CD funding closes tomorrow!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... It's another Risk On Day, at this point after the overnight sessions of Asia and Europe. Although there seemed to be some traders that wanted to exit risk assets... The moves were strange... Ain't if funny how the night moves? When it seems you don't have much to lose? OMG, here I am quoting Bob Seeger at 5 A.M.!

    Traders in the overnight markets allowed the Big Dog euro to remain above 1.51, which it scaled to yesterday afternoon. We saw some data in the U.S. yesterday that flashed a green light at the risk takers, so... As we begin today, the Aussie and kiwi dollars are soaring once again, and the Swiss franc has moved past parity against the dollar...

    ...
  • More Baby Steps For A German Economic Recovery...

    In This Issue..

    * German unemployment falls!
    * RBA disappoints the markets...
    * China to buy Canadian company...
    * ISM to print positive?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And Welcome to September! Well... Here's a thought to get our engines started this morning... Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning ( www.dailyreckoning.com )had this to add to my ranting about our National Debt going to over $20 Trillion in the next 10 years, due to deficit spending...

    'The Obama administration, for example, expects to run $9 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years - and that number is based on a recovery! Imagine what will happen if the economy doesn't recover?'

    ...
  • A Gusher Of Federal Money...

    In This Issue..

    * No currency movement to speak of...
    * Buffett calls out the deficits...
    * PIMCO does too!
    * SNB selling francs to stem gains....

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another day with the medicine in my knee and it feels better yet today... I did have to ice it last night though, I guess I'm still not out of the woods here, but I can see the exit!

    There was very little in the way of movement in the currencies yesterday. The euro moved to 1.4150, but was brought back down to the 1.41 handle overnight. Stocks rebounded yesterday, which gave a few risk takers the intestinal fortitude to dip their toes back into the risk assets water... But there just weren't enough of them to give the currencies the push they deserved to get....
  • Dollar rally peters out...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar rally peters out...
    * Obama defends his policies...
    * Commodity currencies should outperform...
    * Global Power Shift Index...

    Good day... And happy Thursday to everyone! Hope everyone made it through the 'hump day' with no worries. We started the morning here with rainshowers, but it ended up being a beautiful afternoon and evening. Currency markets were similar to the weather here, as most currencies started Wednesday in the loss column vs. the US$, but rallied as the day progressed. The dollar had strengthened over the past couple of days due to 'safe haven' demand; but a surprisingly strong durable goods number (ex autos) combined with an 'all clear' signal from President Barack Obama had investors moving back into riskier assets. The commodity based currencies also got a boost as China signaled it would maintain an accommodative policy, easing speculation that the Bank of China would try to rein in bank lending. Lots to cover today, so lets get right to it....
  • Back To Risk Aversion Again!

    In This Issue..

    * Earnings reports begin this week...
    * Dollar, yen, francs get bought...
    * Medvedev shows off new coin!
    * A busy week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A Home Run Derby Monday to boot! I have no Idea what's going on this morning, as I just woke up, and it's very late in the morning! I was very careful to set my alarm last night, and I've never been one of those people that hit the snooze button when it goes off, but here I am, waking up late... UGH!

    So... I'm writing from home, and then I'll shoot in to work... We're short handed this week, so, I'm sure everyone will be arriving to the office, not see my car, and be a little ticked... So, I've got a surprise for them, something they've never seen... Me come in late!...
  • Russian Rumors...

    In This Issue..

    * dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
    * Emerging Markets decouple...
    * A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
    * Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

    Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....
  • A building block...

    * A quiet Friday... * Euro hits 1.30... * Chinese concern... * This week in data... ** A building block... Good day...And a Marvelous Monday to you. Its hard to believe that Monday morning is already upon us, where does the time go? Just as the currency market took a breather, our cold weather from last week decided to follow suit as it turned out to be a nice late winter weekend. Friday was fairly uneventful as the currencies traded in a tight range throughout the course of the day so it will be interesting to see how this week shapes up. Let's see if the currencies can build from last week...

    Volatility was basically non-existent during Friday trading with less than a .50% difference between the high and the low of the dollar index. The overall bias, however, was a weaker dollar and the euro held onto 1.29 for a majority of the day and was near 1.2920 as I left the desk. The pound and Swiss franc were the only two currencies left on the bench last week with losses of about 1% and 2.5% against the dollar respectively. The rest were able to turn in a decent week with the Swedish krona on top of the pile posting a 6.5% gain....
  • A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries?

    * The euro gets some wind in its sails... * Citigroup is seeking more bailout funds? * Gold hits $1,000! * The ghost of Humphrey-Hawkins... ** A Eurozone Bond To Compete With Treasuries? Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Sure seems as though I went from Friday to Monday, as I went out of town this past weekend, and before I knew it, I was driving to work this morning! UGH! There was a rumor on Friday that really sent the euro higher, and there was another rumor this past weekend about the Asian currencies... So... Let's look at those two items and more of course, as we begin the last week of February!...
  • Another HUGE Currency Rally!

    * Gaza bombing has dollar on the run... * More proof we're turning Japanese... * Adding to the debt burden... * What will deflation do for the dollar? ** A HUGE Currency Rally! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... It's been a long time, now I'm coming back home! Actually, I've been home all of my winter vacation, but I'm referring to the trading desk and EverBank's office. I had a vacation that had a split personality, as I was sick for the first part of it, then went to the eye doctor to get another shot / injection in my eye. So much for the first part! The second part went quite well, with lots of rest and time spent with family. Are there two better ways to spend your time? Not in my book! So... The currencies had a split personality while I was gone too... At first, they rallied like there was no tomorrow, but then sold off, and then range traded. So, we'll finish the year on a down note for most of the currencies, but knowing all too well that the markets are beginning to realize that the debts the U.S. is chalking up are not going to go away, and in fact they're just going to get worse, and that spells bad times for the dollar... Eventually......
  • Maybe It's Time For A Change?

    * Currencies continue to rally... * More Stimulus... * Data shows more rot on the vine... * A Thanksgiving thought... **Maybe It's Time For A Change? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The day before Thanksgiving... Tonight is, historically, the biggest "going out" night for the younger crowd, as they all return home from college, etc. Not for yours truly though... A little reminder that Friday I will not be writing... Friday night, a large group of friends and family are starting the holiday season off with a gathering at the Butler House, before all heading to see the Trans Siberian Orchestra's Holiday Concert... I'm getting pumped up for that! OK... Another rally day in the currencies yesterday... One that wasn't as pronounced as Monday's 3-cent rally... But a rally just the same, and at one point, the euro was trading above 1.30... Hadn't seen that level in a while, so welcome back to the 1.30 level, Mr. euro... ...
  • Financial storms claim two more...

    * Financial storms claim two more victims... * Yen and Swiss Francs move back up... * Euro approaches 1.45 before reversing course... * Oil below $100... ** Financial storms claim two more... Good day... The financial storm claimed another victim this weekend as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy after being unable to find a buyer. Bank of America, who was rumored to be bidding on Lehman ended up buying Merrill Lynch & Co and AIG Inc. is asking the fed for an emergency loan. All of this financial turmoil has sent the dollar lower vs. most of the major currencies as investors are beginning to realize the situation in the US markets is worse than the rest of the world. Over the past three months, currency traders have rallied the dollar on the basis that the US was in better shape than Europe. They will now need to rethink their strategies, as the past few weekends show just how bad the US financial sector is ailing. And unfortunately, their will likely be more to come. Risk aversion is a popular theme in the markets again, and the purchase of US treasuries actually helped to keep the US$ from falling further....
  • Dollar swings a mighty hammer...

    * Dollar swings a mighty hammer... * FOMC expected to sound more hawkish... * Euro Opportunity currencies rally... * RAB leaves rates unchanged, but AUD$ falls... ** Dollar swings a mighty hammer... Good day...The dollar rallied again yesterday, and shot up even more overnight as the markets prepare for the rate announcement from the Fed. Falling oil prices helped propel the greenback higher, as oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May. This latest move puts the dollar index close to 74, the point at which the last dollar correction ended back in mid June. The technical guys are all waiting to see if the index can break through 74.31, a sign that further strength is possible. But I don't pretend to be a technical analyst and would much rather look at the economic fundamentals to figure the direction of the dollar....
  • Oil Price Slides!

    * Big Ben in a predicament! * The euro retreats after new high... * Retail Sales disappoint! * Yen and francs on the menus again! ** Oil Price Slides! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! 3 straight days without rain here in St. Louis! WOW! It did however, rain on the currencies' parade yesterday. About mid-morning, the brakes were applied to the run on the dollar, and the car was put into reverse. Retail Sales disappointed, and PPI is not anything to laugh about... All that and more, as we head into the day after a 15-inning All-Star Game! Front and Center though is the good cop, bad cop thing that played out with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (bad cop) and SEC Chairman Cox (good cop)... Big Ben sent the dollar packing in the morning with his statement that highlighted the Fed's predicament... Big Ben noted the parts of financial markets remained seriously disrupted (which screams, no rate hike), but that dollar weakness had helped cause inflation to rise (Here he goes again trying to blame everyone else for the Fed's creation and feeding of inflation... Oh well, this statement screams, no rate cut!). The currencies all took turns taking a swing at the piñata (dollar)... And... It looked like the volcano was about to blow... Oh, I don't know, I don't know, I don't know where I'm a going to go when the volcano blows! (Ahhh, a little Jimmy Buffett on a Wonderful Wednesday!)...
  • This Is Not A Trend Reversal!

    * German Retail Sales crumble...* UBS takes a big loss! * An Iceland note... * RBA leaves rates unchanged......