Browse by Tags

Daily Pfennig

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • The Euro Trades Through Resistance!

    In This Issue..

    * Most currencies rebound...

    * Gold reaches another record high!

    * Tons of data today...

    * Glad they didn't take TARP...

    ...
  • The Big Dog Gets Off The Porch!

    In This Issue..

    * Good Spanish auction fuels a euro rally...
    * SNB leaves out important words...
    * Deflation disappears in Switzerland...
    * U.S. Housing Starts drop -10%!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! I was reading my friend David Galland's letter the other day, and learned that he, like me, was dealing with his wife being gone for the week... I think I have an advantage on him though, as he has little ones at home... My little buddy Alex, has been hanging out with his older brother, Andrew, so I've been... All by myself... (what a great song by Nilsson)

    OK... Yesterday, I told you how the currency rally had the brakes applied by a return to the European Debt Crisis focus... Yesterday's trading was different though. It was, as if, traders never heard that the U.S. and the IMF were putting together a line of credit for Spain, for they began marking up the euro, and selling dollars, as if it June of 2009! (you may recall that in June, last year, the dollar was on the slippery slope once again)...
  • Waiting On The RBNZ...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * Fed to keep rates unchanged till 2011?
    * Brazil GDP soars 9%!
    * Another glut of Treasuries to auction...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I had a first today on the way to work... I hit every green light! Now... I'm sure you are wondering why I would even have green lights at this hour of the morning... Me too! But they are there! And it was smooth sailing into work today... YAHOO!

    OK... Let's get serious, serious... The currencies traded in a tight range yesterday, with a brief mini-rally in euros, as the single unit rallied to 1.20, but that was short-lived. The rumor going around was that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was intervening...

    ...
  • Greek debt is the euro's Sword of Damocles....

    In This Issue..

    * Greek debt crisis continues to hang over the euro...
    * Moody's says the UK and US debt ratings are secure, for now...
    * Swiss National Bank lets the franc appreciate...
    * Lots of data on tap in the US this week...

    Good day, and welcome to another week. The alarm clock seemed to go off an hour early this morning, as my body hasn't yet adjusted to daylight savings. I have heard several reasons for the semi annual adjustment of our clocks, but still don't buy into it. I think everyone should just agree to leave the clocks alone and I for one vote to leave them where they are right now, giving us an extra bit of sunlight in the evenings. We didn't see much sun here in St. Louis this weekend, as a soft spring rain has been coming down for the past 3 days....
  • Eurozone Economy Stumbles, Fumbles...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro gets sold on weak data...
    * China tries to slowdown again...
    * A$'s get slapped on the China slowdown attempt...
    * Retail sales & confidence print today...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday, in hopes of becoming a Fantastico Friday! It is a 3-day weekend, and we get paid today, so there are some good steps toward Fantastico... Alex's Fox "gig" went great, he stood up, strong and tall, and ripped off a smokin' guitar solo that lasted about 1-2 minutes... But, it was a very late night for yours truly, and so I'm draggin' the line this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the non-dollar currencies led by the euro, are sliding against the dollar... Yesterday, the currencies range traded all day, and in the overnight Asian session that pattern remained tight... But in the European session this morning, as Economic growth in the euro zone slowed in the fourth quarter of 2009, as only one of the currency area's four largest economies expanded....
  • Weekly Job Losses Continue To Pile Up!

    In This Issue..

    * Back to the 'safe haven' trades...
    * The dollar hammers the euro!
    * It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday!
    * The SNB sells francs...

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's a draggin' the line Friday for me, but I'll make every attempt to turn it into a Fantastico Friday for sure! The Big Stock Sell off that I've warned about since probably June of last year, looks like it has finally arrived... Bringing with it, my biggest fears, that the link between all the risk assets, had not been broken completely, and this link has turned into a bloodletting on currencies and commodities...

    OK... So I got that out of the way, front and center this morning! You know... Ever since I began writing about a Big stock sell off, I told you that, should the link remain in place, and the currencies and commodities have adverse reactions, then we would come to the fork in the road... The people that bought currencies and commodities to keep up with their neighbors, in hopes of being able to brag about their returns at the next bar-b-que, will panic and sell, making the sell off even worse... The people that bought these risk assets for the 'right reason', which was to diversify their investment portfolios, so that not all their investments were denominated in dollars, and to provide a hedge against further potential losses by the dollar, and to reduce their overall risk for their investment portfolio, will just batten down the hatches, hunker down, and ride this out... And... If any thing, look to pick up more of these risk assets at cheaper levels as we go along......
  • Dollar holds onto recent gains...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar holds onto recent gains...
    * Norwegian krone to move higher in 2010...
    * SNB gives up intervention...
    * India to raise rates...

    Good day...We got the promised 'sprinkling' of snow over the weekend, it was kind of nice and got everyone in the holiday mood. Nothing like the blizzard which hammered the east coast with up to 2 feet of snow! The bad weather in NY will likely make what was already going to be thing currency markets even lighter. The dollar stayed in a fairly tight range on Friday, with the South African rand being the only currency moving more than 1% (it was down 1.1% vs. the US$)....
  • A Gusher Of Federal Money...

    In This Issue..

    * No currency movement to speak of...
    * Buffett calls out the deficits...
    * PIMCO does too!
    * SNB selling francs to stem gains....

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Another day with the medicine in my knee and it feels better yet today... I did have to ice it last night though, I guess I'm still not out of the woods here, but I can see the exit!

    There was very little in the way of movement in the currencies yesterday. The euro moved to 1.4150, but was brought back down to the 1.41 handle overnight. Stocks rebounded yesterday, which gave a few risk takers the intestinal fortitude to dip their toes back into the risk assets water... But there just weren't enough of them to give the currencies the push they deserved to get....
  • Risk aversion disappears again...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk aversion has left the building...
    * CIT survives without Fed help...
    * SNB tries to fight the markets...
    * Light week for US data...

    Good day... We had just an amazing weekend of weather here in St. Louis, and this morning is shaping up to be another beautiful day. Friday turned out to be a beautiful day for those who have taken our advice and diversified their holdings out of the dollar. Risk aversion was placed on the back burner again, and investors moved money back out of the dollar into higher yielding currencies. The dollar and yen got sold but all other currencies rallied, and investors also turned back toward gold pushing the metal above $950 for the first time in over a month.

    So what caused all of this confidence? First, the housing data released Friday morning in the US showed a slight pick up in both building permits and housing starts. While the housing markets have a long way to go, the data have given investors an indication that construction may have found a bottom. Not to throw cold water on investors confidence in the building numbers, but while the residential market may be bottoming out, the commercial market continues to tumble. I spoke to a good friend over the weekend who is a commercial real estate developer down in Memphis. He told me that his development pipeline has completely dried up, and even the brokerage side of his business has slowed. The only part of his business which has picked up is the marketing of foreclosed properties. He has shifted his concentration to helping banks and lenders 'work out' of commercial projects which they have taken back onto their books. The economy has kept most companies from opening new stores, and many continue to shut down under performing ones. My good friend tells me most of the people he talks to don't believe the commercial real estate market will turn around until the end of next year. Not good news for the banks who are still reeling from the residential real estate bust....
  • Gold Vending Machines!

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * SNB doesn't target the franc...
    * Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
    * Buy your gold and Snickers!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

    The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....
  • Russian Rumors...

    In This Issue..

    * dollar rallies on N. Korea warning...
    * Emerging Markets decouple...
    * A debt upgrade for New Zealand...
    * Swiss francs rise despite SNB warnings...

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Yes, the rain continues here in St. Louis, but that's normal for this time of year. But the rain brings the thunder... And so it is a Thunderin' Thursday!

    Well... The dollar came back with some vengeance yesterday pushing the Big Dog, euro, back well within the 1.38 handle, and all the other little dogs, other currencies, followed. There wasn't data to speak of yesterday to push the dollar higher, it was simply a case of fright, as safe haven flows went the dollar's way after the news of a N. Korea attack warning spread throughout the markets....
  • Currencies Rally Yesterday...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro climbs back to 1.30...
    * High Yielders bounce back...
    * Gold to hit $1,500?
    * Kurt Richebacher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, it's a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because it's finally supposed to be warm here today, and... The Card and Mets in a day game at Busch today... Wink, wink... It's also a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because... I said so! HA-HA!

    Well... We had a rally in the currencies yesterday and this time the rally wasn't reversed overnight by profit taking! WOW! It's been some time since we could say that! Maybe it was the good karma the overnight markets received by my little buddy Alex's base hit last night to drive in 2 runs! Or, the good karma from a Cardinals pitcher going into the 9th inning of a game! WOW! Or... Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, fundamentals are creeping back into the currency markets?...
  • A building block...

    * A quiet Friday... * Euro hits 1.30... * Chinese concern... * This week in data... ** A building block... Good day...And a Marvelous Monday to you. Its hard to believe that Monday morning is already upon us, where does the time go? Just as the currency market took a breather, our cold weather from last week decided to follow suit as it turned out to be a nice late winter weekend. Friday was fairly uneventful as the currencies traded in a tight range throughout the course of the day so it will be interesting to see how this week shapes up. Let's see if the currencies can build from last week...

    Volatility was basically non-existent during Friday trading with less than a .50% difference between the high and the low of the dollar index. The overall bias, however, was a weaker dollar and the euro held onto 1.29 for a majority of the day and was near 1.2920 as I left the desk. The pound and Swiss franc were the only two currencies left on the bench last week with losses of about 1% and 2.5% against the dollar respectively. The rest were able to turn in a decent week with the Swedish krona on top of the pile posting a 6.5% gain....
  • On the turning?

    * SNB surprise... * Currencies continue... * Retail Sales... * Recipe for inflation... And Now... Today's Pfennig! On the turning? Good day...And a Fantastic Friday to you. It would be nice to have some of that warm weather they have in Jacksonville make its way north, but hopefully its right around the corner...patience. Yesterday was a wild ride so hopefully you had that seat belt fastened tight and both hands on the wheel. I have a lot to talk about so I'll get right to it... We were greeted yesterday morning with some big news out of Switzerland where they not only cut rates to .25% from .50% but also decided to take matters into their own hands. Chuck sent me some thoughts before he left for vacation, so here you go. 'The Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervened in the markets yesterday with a bang! The SNB sold francs for euros and dollars to further reduce the price of money (since they've already cut interest rates to the bone). Francs went from 86-cents to 84-cents in one day! UGH!'...
  • A HUGE Currency Rally!

    * Another currency rally.... * SNB cuts another 50 BPS! * Budget Deficit continues to widen! * Treasury yields go south for the winter! ** A HUGE Currency Rally! Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's been quite the rally this week in the currencies led by the euro, which is like old times, eh? The Big Dog on the porch finally gets to stretch its legs and chase the dollar down the street! It's been a long time since we've seen this go on for more than a day. Yes, we've seen one day spikes, and even two day rallies turn into false dawns, but this one has lasted about a week now. Ever since last Friday's awful Jobs Jamboree, the tide has turned, and the Trading Theme that has held the currencies in a full nelson since the end of July, could very well be on the way out the door. I said that about the Trading Theme earlier this week, so I just wanted to repeat that to emphasize the point!...