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  • Another day for the dollar.

    In This Issue.

    * Euro takes a spill

    * Economic data rundown

    * Spain cuts growth outlook

    * Norway defies gravity

    ...
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes Deep Six The Risk Assets.

    In This Issue.

    * Risk assets have a deep slide .

    * Fed gives parameters for additional stimulus.

    * Australia prints a Trade Deficit!

    * Norway considers a cap for euro cross.

    ...
  • Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro falls as Greece pushed toward IMF...
    * Decision on Norwegian interest rates...
    * Canadian dollar rises...
    * Kiwi to outpace Australian dollar...

    Good day, the dollar gained ground across the board as the news hit that the IMF will be brought in to help rescue Greece. The dollar was also helped by data which showed existing housing sales fell by less than expected in February. We will get additional news on the status of the US economy today, with the release of durable goods and new home sales numbers for February. We will get a rate decision by the Norwegian central bank today, which could stoke calls for higher rates here in the US. But the big news overnight is concerning the euro (again!).

    The euro sold off by a full percentage point vs. the US$ after both Germany and France are reported to have agreed to have the IMF involved in aid to Greece. This is an about face for European leaders who announced last week that they had agreed on a European solution to the Greek crisis. But Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel threw a spanner in the works a week ago when she said Germany would not participate in giving Greece financial aid. This threw the euro into crisis mode again, as the 'agreement' reached early last week never materialized....
  • Bias To Buy Dollars Remains In Place...

    In This Issue..

    * Some healing in the currencies...
    * What's a dead cross?
    * Norway, S. Africa and Norway rally...
    * U.S. deficit spending continues...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm Back! Boy, was that ever a great idea that our little Christine had a couple of weeks ago, when she heard my schedule... 'you should take off that Monday'... Yes sirree Bob! That was the best idea I've heard in a month of Sundays! So... As you can see, or will see soon, I'm full of you know what and vinegar this morning... Let's get going on this Terrific Tuesday!

    Well... Front and Center this morning, the non-dollar currencies have seen some healing... Some, not much, but some... But these mini-rallies are on tenterhooks folks, they can be reversed in a New York Minute... And, now that I look back at the screens, that's exactly what's happening! UGH! These turn-arounds are beginning to give me a rash!...
  • Gold Continues to Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day!
    * Commodity Currencies soar!
    * Norway wants to remove stimulus soon...
    * EX-CBO Director talks about the deficit...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It's Thanksgiving Week! I know I mentioned it was on the horizon about 10 days ago, but now the week is here! I don't know what your plans are for Thanksgiving, but I hope they include giving Thanks for the men and women of the armed forces... You may not agree with their mission, but supporting them with good thoughts shouldn't enter the equation...

    OK... On Friday morning, it was a Risk Off day... But as the day wore on, Risk came back into the currencies.... And today, it's REALLY a Risk On day! Apparently, at some time on Friday, some one with a lick of brains, realized that the Fed is going to keep their stimulus measures, which include near zero interest rates, for some time to come... Why would that deep six the dollar? Ahhh grasshopper, apparently you haven't been paying attention in class! No worries... Here's the skinny...

    ...
  • Gold Vending Machines!

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * SNB doesn't target the franc...
    * Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
    * Buy your gold and Snickers!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

    The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....
  • Currencies Continue to Rally...

    In This Issue..

    * An auction announcement...
    * Euro soars!
    * Gold back to $900...
    * Who's telling the truth?

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to you! A Fantastico Friday to boot! I leave for Bermuda very early tomorrow morning, so no late night shenanigans for me tonight! HA! I'm still trying to make sure I've beaten that pneumonia, and being a "good boy"!

    Well... Front and center this morning, we have a Big currency rally going on... Recall yesterday, I told you of the beginning of the rally... Well, it really got legs as the day went on, and once again, it was not sold off overnight, but added to! Here's what I believe, and you won't see this anywhere else, my friends, is moving these currencies so violently higher VS the dollar......
  • Throwing A Cat Among The Pigeons...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion returns...
    * RBA cuts 25 BPS...
    * Eurozone recession deepens...
    * Oil backs off...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! OK... I'll get to Opening Day in the Big Finish today, first, and foremost, I need to tell you about a guy that really threw a cat among the pigeons yesterday, causing a BIG scare and sell off of risk assets... Currencies that is...

    His name is Mike Mayo, and he used to work at Deutsche Bank, and now is a banking analyst at Caylon Securities... And brother can he ever move a market! To make a long story short... Mr. Mayo basically said yesterday in a report that 'Bank Loan Losses Will Exceed Depression Levels'... So, all that James Brown, feeling good, that went on last week with the G-20 singing everything is beautiful, all went down the drain after Mr. Mayo spoke......
  • UK data boosts the dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * UK data boosts the dollar...
    * US GDP falls further...
    * Norway cuts rates...
    * Big wins by MIZZOU and BLUES...

    Good day... I want to start this mornings Pfennig with a big congratulations to the MIZZOU Tigers who pulled off what most believed was an unlikely win over Memphis last night. What a game! They move on to the Elite Eight to play powerhouse UCONN on Saturday.

    The currency markets weren't as exciting as the basketball games yesterday, as the dollar held in a fairly tight range. The big move came in early morning trading as a report was released in the UK showing their economy's contraction was worse than previously thought. This news was GDP in the UK fell 1.6% in the 4th quarter of 2008 vs. the previous quarter. And the outlook presented by the Bank of England is not rosy. BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale said this morning that the British economy's short term prospects are 'bleak'. Chuck has brought up the comparison between the UK and US economies several times, as the UK economy looks like mirror image (albeit smaller) of the US. The UK economy has been slightly ahead of the US in the race toward economic meltdown. Unfortunately the US Fed seems to be shadowing every move by the UK, cutting rates to near zero and then using 'quantitative easing' to force them down even further....
  • A Horrific Jobs Report!

    * 651K jobs lost in Feb... * Dec. and Jan Job losses revised up... * Talking Norway, Canada, Australia... * Brazil stealthlike for 3 months... ** A Horrific Jobs Report! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A wonderful weekend here in St. Louis, a taste of spring was in the air. I got to spend some time with some of my closest friends on Friday night, a good time was had by all! Well... Our Fantastico Friday was interrupted by that horrific Jobs Jamboree number that printed Friday morning... 651K jobs were lost in February, which let me remind you is a couple of days shorter than other months. So, it could have been worse! Hard to believe that could be the case, but it's true. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, from 7.6% in January. The jobless rate is the highest since 1983. The economy has now shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with almost half of those losses occurring in the last three months alone....
  • Santa rally continues...

    * Santa rally continues... * Norway cuts 175 basis points... * Japanese intervention possible... * Indian rupee moves up... ** Santa rally continues... Good day... The dollar is falling much faster than it rose, the euro surged over 6 cents vs. US$ since yesterday at this time. The 5 day return chart for the major currencies vs. the US$ is pretty impressive: Swiss Franc +12.55%, Euro +9.5%, Danish Krone +9.44%, New Zealand $ +8.41%, Australian $ +5.08%, Swedish Krona +4.85%. And it continues. The past two weeks have been the most dramatic move by the dollar that I can remember. The dollar index, which tracks the US$ vs a group of major currencies is back trading right where it was at this time last year. I pulled a chart of year to date currency returns vs. the US$, and there are now 5 major currencies which have appreciated vs. the greenback: Yen +26.44%, Swiss + 8.07%, and Singapore, Danish Krone, & Euro + 1%. And with the recent big moves, our phones have been lighting up with investors moving back into currencies. I love the fact that all of these investors are diversifying, but the speed of this recent move demonstrates why we suggest keeping your investments spread across all asset classes. Trying to time into or out of a market can be frustrating, while keeping consistent asset allocations is the key....
  • Fannie and Freddie Back In The News...

    * Strange trading days... * U.K. Retail Sales surprise.... * Norway's GDP prints strong! * A CDO lesson... ** Fannie and Freddie Back In The News... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Don't know why... I just felt like it should be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I hit the wall yesterday, as I went home, and fell asleep at 3 o'clock, and didn't wake up till night time! Watched a few innings of my beloved Cardinals, wanted desperately to stay up and watch the May-Walsh beach volleyball game, but went right back to bed! So... I should be rested, eh? One would think so, but with the treatments I take, they just simply wipe me out! But... Hey! I always said that sleep was the greatest thing... I just get to enjoy more of it, right? OK... Another day of strange trading... As I signed off yesterday, the euro had given up it's previous day's gains, but found some terra firma at 1.47 and then rallied in the afternoon... If you guess right, as I have not done so this week, you can catch a great price to sell, and buy, all in the same day!...
  • A Downward Revision of Eurozone Growth...

    * Euro rally ends quickly! * Housing Data continues to be bad... * OECD wants Norway's rates increased... * The Aden Sisters on a Wednesday! ** A Downward Revision of Eurozone Growth... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm sitting here wondering what to write about this morning, and on the radio is a classic song by Led Zeppelin, Dazed and Confused... Seems quite apropos, eh? I say this because that's what I've been for the last month, as the dollar got up from its death bed, and there's not a sign of any medicine that was prescribed had been taken! Oh well, why would I think that things would change for me at this stage of my life, I've been dazed and confused for a long time! HA! I'm sure that's what a lot of people are saying right now anyway... The euro rebounded over 1-cent yesterday, but that rebound has been wiped out completely in the overnight markets... There's just no lasting power in any currency rally VS the dollar right now. And as I keep going saying, this is reminding me so much of 2005 when the dollar covered up its pimples and posed for GQ, only to see the pimples pop through the makeup by year-end....