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  • Jobs Everywhere!

    In This Issue.

    * Bias to buy dollars is strong.

    * Germany gives reasons to sell euros.

    * Japanese investors heading toward exits.

    * Gold inches higher .

    ...
  • A Risk On Day...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rallies on ECB lending amount...
    * Gold and Silver back on rally tracks...
    * Waiting on the Riksbank...
    * U.N. wants a global currency...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... We get a two day break in the World Cup, with only 8 teams left. Too bad, the U.S. team isn't one of the 'great 8'! But that's what happens when you play the games, eh?

    The games people play now... Every night and every day now... Never meaning what they say now... Never saying what they mean...

    Yes, Joe South had it completely correct back in the 60's... I was watching a video of an interview with the famous, Jim Rogers, last night. And Jim was talking about the reason why Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke fought the 'audit the Fed' bill... And Jim said that Big Ben fought it because, he and the Fed Heads (my description), have spent trillions of dollars on complete junk paper, and he didn't want us (the taxpayers) to know what he had done. Ahhh... The games people play now......
  • The Hits Just Keep Coming...

    In This Issue..

    * Merkel sends the euro lower...
    * Gold Sells off again!
    * Bond Vigilantes...
    * Aussie Confidence falls 7%...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The rain stopped, the sun came out, I got to sit outside and listen to the ballgame on the radio, all was right in Chuck's world again yesterday... The rain is supposed to come back tonight though... UGH! My little river town is watching the river rise to the top of the banks now...

    The hit songs just keep coming for the euro... As often as the Beatles put them out from 1963 to 1970, or Elton John put them out in the 70's...

    Well... It's the same for the euro... Just when it looked as though the euro might survive a day without being taken to the woodshed... The Eurozone officials just couldn't stand the prosperity! ( and I use that word loosely!) German Chancellor Angela Merkel made some proposals to gain control over 'destructive' financial markets... Her first move was to place a ban on naked short-selling......
  • FOMC Day – 04/28/2010...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro goes into a tailspin...
    * Portugal gets downgraded...
    * Germans talk with IMF today
    * Aussie CPI indicates rate hike...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you... Today marks 1-week since I've been back writing the Pfennig... I simply love writing the Pfennig each day, and boy did I miss it when I was unable to write... Vacation is one thing, those are well deserved breaks, but to not be able to write is another. So... I'm thankful that I'm able to write again...

    Well... The euro went into a tailspin yesterday, and for once it wasn't Greece so much... This time it was a little Greece, and a lot Portugal. The ratings agencies downgraded Greek debt to junk... And they downgraded Portugal's debt from A- to A-2, with a negative outlook. The fear that Greek's debt problems would spread, is coming to fruition... The euro fell to a 1-year low during the day, and the selling didn't stop in the U.S!...
  • Clairvoyant Pundits?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro backs off yesterday's high...
    * More tough talk from Germany....
    * Brazil talks about weakening real...
    * Waiting on Aussie CPI tonight...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's still raining here, but forecast to stop today... The temperature dropped big time too, bringing back cold air... Little Delaney Grace, and I were bummed out that we couldn't go outside yesterday!

    Well... As the day went on yesterday, things got more mixed up... I kept reading news stories stating that the euro was falling VS the dollar, but all the while, the currency screen kept showing the euro rising, actually getting very close to 1.34 on the day...

    So, you can't always take what you hear or read as fact... Or... As Marvin Gaye would said years ago... People say believe half of what you see, Son, and none of what you hear....
  • Bailout Package For Greece Put On Hold...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro rally fades on latest Greek development...
    * Brazilian real rallies...
    * Canadian loonie ratchets higher...
    * Another Geithner smoking gun?

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because... I say so! Every day's a new day... And for someone like me that had two strikes called on me before I knew the pitch was even coming... Every day is special!

    I want to thank every one that sent along a note of good wishes, and advice to tell the people that decide that email is a good way to ruin someone's day, good riddance... I'll have more on this in the Big Finish...

    But what a day the currencies had yesterday! The euro gained ground all the way back to 1.3730 (but saw some profit taking at the end of the day) and all the other currencies followed in step... Now... There's two ways to look at this... Either the euro is like a star that's getting ready to burn out... (it always shines brightest before it burns out), or... It's like a star that had been covered up by another planet, and is coming back into view!...
  • Green Light, Green Light!

    In This Issue..

    * FOMC minutes make it a Risk On Day!
    * Gold hits $1,180!
    * Germany's ZEW is bang on with their forecast!
    * Russia to buy loonies?

    It's a Risk On Day, full on, no 'kind of' today! Or at least that's how it looks as I begin to write this morning... The Big Dog, euro, is back over 1.50 this morning, and Gold is trading at $1,177! What brought about this full on Risk On day?

    Well... It was the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes... And, when I read what the Fed Heads had to say, I had one song in my mind... Hey! You! Get off of my cloud! Because that's where their collective heads are with these minutes, folks... The Fed Heads viewed the U.S. economy on firmer footing and expects the growth to continue in the 4th QTR... Yeah, right, and I've got some swamp land I'd like to sell you! Snake Oil salesmen these guys!

    Any way... The Fed Heads also said that the dollar's depreciation had been 'orderly'... With no mention of doing anything to stop the depreciation! Green light, Green light, Green light... How many of these Green lights do traders and you need to realize that the Fed isn't going to stop the dollar's decline? And How about the Treasury? Oh! That's right, they're too busy shoving negative yields down people's throats! OK, I'm getting all ticked off, and I really don't feel like doing that today, so I'm going to talk about something else, fast!...
  • Gold Continues to Soar!

    In This Issue..

    * It's a Risk On Day!
    * Commodity Currencies soar!
    * Norway wants to remove stimulus soon...
    * EX-CBO Director talks about the deficit...

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! It's Thanksgiving Week! I know I mentioned it was on the horizon about 10 days ago, but now the week is here! I don't know what your plans are for Thanksgiving, but I hope they include giving Thanks for the men and women of the armed forces... You may not agree with their mission, but supporting them with good thoughts shouldn't enter the equation...

    OK... On Friday morning, it was a Risk Off day... But as the day wore on, Risk came back into the currencies.... And today, it's REALLY a Risk On day! Apparently, at some time on Friday, some one with a lick of brains, realized that the Fed is going to keep their stimulus measures, which include near zero interest rates, for some time to come... Why would that deep six the dollar? Ahhh grasshopper, apparently you haven't been paying attention in class! No worries... Here's the skinny...

    ...
  • Germany & France Post 3rd QTR Growth...

    In This Issue..

    * Risk Aversion fuels dollar rally yesterday...
    * Eurozone growth may stop the Risk Aversion...
    * Budget Deficit is a record $176.4 Billion!
    * Euro, Swiss, Aussie, Norway, all cheaper today!

    Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Let's try to make this a Fantastico Friday as well! The Risk Aversion that was creeping into the currency markets yesterday really took hold in the U.S. trading session, which meant the dollar was being bought once more, along with Japanese yen...

    It just makes me laugh out loud, when I write that the 'safe haven currencies' during Risk Aversion trading are the dollar and yen... These two countries have debt up to their eyeballs, pay no interest on their deposits, and have a leadership deficiency... (ok, before every begins to think that I'm ripping the president again, I'm not... I'm talking about the Central Bank, and lawmakers of each country)...
  • German Business Confidence Slides...

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies trade in a tight range...
    * $81 Billion in Treasury auctions this week!
    * Fitch fans the flames of a fire in the U.K....
    * Aussie Business Confidence rises...

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I didn't start out this Tuesday on the right foot, and now I'm really running late! Oh well...

    The non-dollar currencies didn't move much yesterday, the euro bumped up and down against the 1.50 figure, while the A$ did the same against 93-cents, and Swiss against parity... So the currencies are trading in the same clothes they went to bed in last night!

    The Big Dog, euro, did attempt to move stronger into the 1.50 level, but that move was thwarted by a poor reading of German Investor Confidence this morning. German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank ZEW, reported that their index had fallen to 51.1 this month VS the 56 in October. Most of those Germans surveyed said that they expect the economic recovery to be slow once the Gov't removes the stimulus in the economy. So... Previous euphoria is being replaced by realism... But that's OK... Better to have a reality grip on things than to go around thinking that everything is seashells and balloons......
  • More Baby Steps For A German Economic Recovery...

    In This Issue..

    * German unemployment falls!
    * RBA disappoints the markets...
    * China to buy Canadian company...
    * ISM to print positive?

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! And Welcome to September! Well... Here's a thought to get our engines started this morning... Bill Bonner of the Daily Reckoning ( www.dailyreckoning.com )had this to add to my ranting about our National Debt going to over $20 Trillion in the next 10 years, due to deficit spending...

    'The Obama administration, for example, expects to run $9 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years - and that number is based on a recovery! Imagine what will happen if the economy doesn't recover?'

    ...
  • German Business Confidence Continues to Surprise!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies rally in early morning Tuesday
    * But see profit taking later in the day...
    * Looking for yield?
    * China expected to get back to 10% growth!

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! When I signed off yesterday morning, I told you that I was watching a mini-rally in the currencies. Well, that mini-rally turned into a real rally as the morning went along. Especially, after the risk assets got a boost from the Consumer Confidence revival. Yes, Brother Love's traveling salvation show revival, a.k.a. Consumer Confidence was much stronger than forecast, and the risk assets took off!

    By mid-afternoon, the euro was pushing 1.4350, and all the 'little dogs' were following along with their own version of a rally VS the dollar. But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum, and profit taking set in... Oh brother! Can't these guys wait until there is really a BIG move before they take profits? Oh well, I know, you're saying, 'But Chuck, don't you always say that it's not a profit until you take it?' Yes, that's correct... But the rest of us just want to have a diversifying asset in our investment portfolio, and are not interested in 1/2 euro moves to take a 'profit'!

    ...
  • Making The Fed Reserve Accountable!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies sold overnight
    * But rebound in early morning trading...
    * China throws cold water on stock values...
    * German exports rival the Big Kahuna!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I returned home from San Francisco last night, and am back in the saddle today! Not the way I like to travel, where I get a day when returning home to recharge the batteries, but it is what it is... I did an interview with MarketWatch yesterday morning, talking about... Well, what else? The deficits, and diversification! My presentations in S.F. were well attended... On Saturday, my power point froze up, but I carried on in spite of the technical difficulties!

    You know... I really, heard a lot of people talking about the rumor / conspiracy story that there will be a bank holiday at the end of the month (this weekend) and the Gov't will announce major changes to the currency... Now, before anyone begins to believe that I am on board with that rumor / conspiracy story, STOP! I am NOT! I've read all the theories, and I've heard all the information regarding this, but just do not understand why this would be done... So... I just wanted to throw it out there, and let you all know where I stand on this......
  • Gold Vending Machines!

    In This Issue..

    * More range trading...
    * SNB doesn't target the franc...
    * Norges Bank cuts rate but looks forward...
    * Buy your gold and Snickers!

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It was 95 here yesterday, and forecast to be even warmer, or should I say hotter, today! WOW! Like overnight, it turned to summer, after the coldest, most wet, spring I can ever recall... I know, I'll get 100 emails reminding me that summer doesn't officially start until next week... I'm just talking about the summer-like weather!

    The currencies remained in that range I talked about yesterday, with a slight bias to sell dollars, but not much of one. Crude Oil prices moved higher on the day and overnight, which doesn't play well with a dollar rally, and therefore, has pushed the dollar down a bit... But again, we're talking minor moves. It's as if someone (traders) are waiting for something BIG to happen with data, the Fed, the Treasury, before taking one direction....
  • The Dollar Rebounds...

    In This Issue..

    * Too far, too fast?
    * Currencies give back some ground...
    * Did China send a message?
    * The Mogambo and more!

    Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I hope your Memorial Day Holiday weekend was grand... We had beautiful days Friday and Saturday, but Sunday and Monday brought the monsoons! Still... I got to spend time with family and friends, and attend a Cardinals game! YAHOO!

    Well... Recall on Friday morning, I told you about how we could see wild swings because of the thinned out trading desks? Well, that's exactly what happened... The Big Dog, euro, traded well into the 1.40 level, up to 1.4050 at one point! The currencies across the board were kicking sand in the dollar's face and laugh. You may also recall that I said that Friday didn't seem like a good time to buy given the strength... And that too, has played out with the currencies giving back a good chunk of ground taken last week, in the overnight markets....