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Coordinated Rate Cuts!

* Yen trades to 98! * Carry Trades unwinding hurt high yielders... * Gold rallies back to $900! * Central Bank rate cuts.... ** Coordinated Rate Cuts! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... There's a ton of stuff to talk about today, one of which is the amazing run that Japanese yen has had in the past month, but particularly the last week! No need to sneak a peak at the currency round-up, Japanese yen is trading 98.80! WOW! I could be acting like a contortionist and trying to slap myself on the back, but that would unprofessional... And besides, the rest of the currencies are taking shots to the mid-section. Anyway... Blow the horn, the Carry Trade (for yen) is dead, may it rest in peace! OK... The currencies tried like all get out yesterday to rally VS the dollar, the euro did end the day 1% higher on the day, which after the bloodshed of the past month, I'll take that any old time! I would love to go back to 2005 (not really, but for this conversation's sake I will) and pull out some old Pfennigs where I talked about all the naysayers talking about a break up of the euro... We had the NO votes from France and Denmark on accepting the European Union's (EU) Constitution, we had riots in the streets of France, we had rising interest rates in the U.S. and dozens and dozens of naysayers called out the euro and said it would collapse under the weight. I said then, and I'll say now... HOGWASH!...

Published Wed, Oct 10 2008 9:15 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Brazilian Real, Silver, Gold, Euro, Ben Bernanke, Yen, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, Carry Trade, Icelandic Krona, Financial Crisis, European Union
Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event?

* A potential CDS debacle... * Currencies rally back... * Brazilian real history... * Saber rattling or geopolitical pressure? ** Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event? Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Right out of the starters blocks this morning, I have to apologize for the tardiness of the Pfennig yesterday... We were experiencing some technical difficulties... In fact, if you sent me an email, I didn't get it yesterday! Things look better this morning, so, maybe we're back on track! I know it's no one's fault when this stuff happens, but it sure doesn't make me feel good about getting up at X:XX AM (I won't say because you will think I'm crazy!) to come in and write the Pfennig, only to see it not go out until late in the day! Well... The stock market here in the U.S. sure liked the news about Fannie and Freddie! I guess, they, just like the dollar bulls, didn't get the memo that this will put billions of dollars of tax burden on taxpayers, and most likely is going to cause a major disruption in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) that are on the books... Oh, well, we have to learn to deal with mental giants all our lives, this is just another case of that!...

Published Tue, Sep 09 2008 9:05 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Currencies, Brazilian Real, Gold, Euro, Carry Trade, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, I.O.U.S.A, Credit Default Swaps
Where There's Smoke...

* Fed Head Yellen comes clean! * $75 Billion in Capital needed? * Another risk even? * Higher inflation for Brazil... ** Where There's Smoke... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm writing from home today as I have to deal with a catalytic converter this morning before heading into work. Writing from home is always a challenge in that I don't have my trading screens going with news scrolling continuously... But... I carry on despite my challenges! The euro recovered a bit yesterday after last Thursday's tailspin... And the recovery was smack dab in the face of some weak economic news from Germany! Here's what got the euro going and moving up once again yesterday......

Published Tue, Jul 07 2008 9:55 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Brazilian Real, China, Recession, Euro, Consumer Confidence, Bank of England, Carry Trade, Janet Yellen
Removing Fed Rate Hike Bets...

* The euro rallies 1-cent! * U.S Data continues to be a drag... * Canada's Carney underpins the loonie... * RBS issues a warning! **Removing Fed Rate Hike Bets... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Looks like it could be a Fantastico Friday as traders are Finally coming around to Chuck's way of thinking regarding Fed rate hikes... And as traders remove their bets for aggressive Fed rate hikes, the luster begins to fade on the dollar rally. The meetings are over for this week (they start up again next week!), YAHOO! I get to spend the day on the trading desk... I've missed everyone! OK... Front and Center this morning, we have the euro trading 1-cent higher, knock, knock knocking on Heaven's Door, I mean, the 1.56 handle. As I said in the intro, it appears that traders don't have the stomach to hold on to their bets that the Fed will aggressively raise interest rates this year. Recall, the other day, I told you that the bets were ratcheting up and had reached 75 BPS of rate hikes this year... I doubt we have any... In fact, as I told you the other day too, I believe that when the dust settles on the fact that the Fed isn't going to raise rates, things will have gotten so bad here that the Fed will be entertaining thoughts of cutting rates again!...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 9:20 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Brazilian Real, Oil, China, Euro, Carry Trade, FOMC, Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Scotland

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Coordinated Rate Cuts!

Does The Bail Out Constitute A CDS Event?

Where There's Smoke...

Removing Fed Rate Hike Bets...