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  • Cautiously Positive?

    In This Issue..

    * Euro & yen add to gains...
    * RBNZ disappoints...
    * Foreclosures continue to stack up!
    * BOE & BOC meet today...

    Good day... And a Thrillin' Thursday to you! Ahhh! A change! Just thought that with the thrilling victories my beloved Cardinals have been accumulating, that Thrillin' would be a nice change to our Thursday lineup!

    Front and Center this morning... The currencies added to their gains this week yesterday, albeit small gains, but gains nonetheless. The Fed's Beige Book was 'cautiously positive'... And... Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand met, and left rates unchanged as suspected... This and more as we begin our Thrillin' Thursday!...
  • Dollar rally peters out...

    In This Issue..

    * Dollar rally peters out...
    * Obama defends his policies...
    * Commodity currencies should outperform...
    * Global Power Shift Index...

    Good day... And happy Thursday to everyone! Hope everyone made it through the 'hump day' with no worries. We started the morning here with rainshowers, but it ended up being a beautiful afternoon and evening. Currency markets were similar to the weather here, as most currencies started Wednesday in the loss column vs. the US$, but rallied as the day progressed. The dollar had strengthened over the past couple of days due to 'safe haven' demand; but a surprisingly strong durable goods number (ex autos) combined with an 'all clear' signal from President Barack Obama had investors moving back into riskier assets. The commodity based currencies also got a boost as China signaled it would maintain an accommodative policy, easing speculation that the Bank of China would try to rein in bank lending. Lots to cover today, so lets get right to it....
  • Magical Currency Tours!

    In This Issue..

    * Currencies get whacked by Geithner!
    * Big Ben wants the budget deficit cut!
    * BOE and ECB meetings today...
    * I told you this was going to get ugly...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes... Tub Thumpin' because I said so! Yesterday was absolutely a 10 on the crazy meter, and We the People, just continue to sit and take whatever the Government and media tell us is 'best for us in these uncommon times'... I've got some interesting words on this later in the letter... It's time for me to get on my soap box once again, so... At least I've prepared you! But first... Some currency news!

    Well... Yesterday, I left you with the thought that the currencies were selling off, after the Asian Central Banks all made statements regarding their support of the dollar as the world's reserve currency... Here are some further thoughts on that......
  • It's All About The Stress Tests...

    In This Issue..

    * Tired of reacting to rumors!
    * Aussie dollar continues to rally...
    * More on China...
    * Bank of England keeps rates unchanged...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! We're stuck in a rainy pattern here in St. Louis, I just have to hope the rain stops long enough to get the day game at Busch in today!

    Well... The Stress Tests get their public showing today... The rumors continue to be something strange... Strange in that, one it's Bank of America (BOA) needing to raise $10 Billion, the next day it's $35 Billion, and then later in the same day, BOA doesn't need to raise any capital! Talk about wild swings of emotion! WOW!...
  • Currencies Rally Yesterday...

    In This Issue..

    * Euro climbs back to 1.30...
    * High Yielders bounce back...
    * Gold to hit $1,500?
    * Kurt Richebacher...

    Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Yes, it's a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because it's finally supposed to be warm here today, and... The Card and Mets in a day game at Busch today... Wink, wink... It's also a Tub Thumpin' Thursday because... I said so! HA-HA!

    Well... We had a rally in the currencies yesterday and this time the rally wasn't reversed overnight by profit taking! WOW! It's been some time since we could say that! Maybe it was the good karma the overnight markets received by my little buddy Alex's base hit last night to drive in 2 runs! Or, the good karma from a Cardinals pitcher going into the 9th inning of a game! WOW! Or... Maybe, just maybe, cause you never know, fundamentals are creeping back into the currency markets?...
  • UK data boosts the dollar...

    In This Issue..

    * UK data boosts the dollar...
    * US GDP falls further...
    * Norway cuts rates...
    * Big wins by MIZZOU and BLUES...

    Good day... I want to start this mornings Pfennig with a big congratulations to the MIZZOU Tigers who pulled off what most believed was an unlikely win over Memphis last night. What a game! They move on to the Elite Eight to play powerhouse UCONN on Saturday.

    The currency markets weren't as exciting as the basketball games yesterday, as the dollar held in a fairly tight range. The big move came in early morning trading as a report was released in the UK showing their economy's contraction was worse than previously thought. This news was GDP in the UK fell 1.6% in the 4th quarter of 2008 vs. the previous quarter. And the outlook presented by the Bank of England is not rosy. BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale said this morning that the British economy's short term prospects are 'bleak'. Chuck has brought up the comparison between the UK and US economies several times, as the UK economy looks like mirror image (albeit smaller) of the US. The UK economy has been slightly ahead of the US in the race toward economic meltdown. Unfortunately the US Fed seems to be shadowing every move by the UK, cutting rates to near zero and then using 'quantitative easing' to force them down even further....
  • A change in the Trading Theme?

    * A change in the Trading Theme? * Gold rebounds Big time! * ECB cuts 50 BPS, as expected... * Lots of lessons today... ** Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It supposed to be 70 degrees here today, so in my book that makes it a Fantastico Friday! It's also a Jobs Jamboree Friday, and while this report is probably not going to be anything good, it will be Fantastico BAD! The experts have forecast a job loss in February to be 650K!!!!!! Six Hundred and Fifty Thousand did I say? Yes, sir, may I have another, sir? Well, shiver me timbers, this is just downright awful! And if it prints this bad, it will be the most jobs lost in a month since 1949! This is horrific, just plain horrific folks... And in my opinion, will NOT signal the bottom of the barrel for labor just yet... This thing has momentum and I don't think you'd want to step in front of this run-away bus!...
  • Inauguration Day 2009...

    * Rogers and Roach... * Dollar gaps higher! * Ireland's problems... * Bad data... ** Inauguration Day 2009... Good day... Well... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I got to enjoy a nice restful 3-day weekend. I realize not everyone got yesterday off, so I won't carry on about it. Can you believe it? The St. Louis Cardinals Football Team A.K.A. The Big Red, no wait, Chuck, they left town 20 years ago... OK, the Arizona Cardinals are going to the Super Bowl? When they were here, I never thought I would live to see the day... Front and Center this morning, I have two quotes from people I truly respect... first from Jimmy Rogers... second from Stephen Roach... If I were you, I would be worried about the U.S. dollar,' said Rogers, 66, in a speech at the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong today. 'The Americans are printing U.S. dollars. The Americans are going to do whatever they can to revive their economy, even if it means destroying the U.S. dollar.'...
  • The Dollar Swings A Mighty Big Hammer!

    * Another dollar rally.... * Rumors in Ireland... * Trade Deficit narrows... * Retail Sales to disappoint? ** The Dollar Swings A Mighty Hammer! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm writing from home today, as I will not be in the office on this wonderful Wednesday. Writing from home, or the road, always presents problems for me, as I'm so used to being in the "saddle" at my desk, and having information all around me. But, my little work desk at home has some of those amenities... So, what the heck, quit your grumpiness, and get to writing, Chuck! The dollar ripped through the 1.32 handle of the euro yesterday, like a hot knife goes through butter! There was little to no resistance in that 1.32 handle, and before you could tell one of the many people on the desk here that sneeze all day, God Bless you, we were trading with a 1.31 handle in euros. The talk about a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut has really ramped up this week, and taken its toll on the single unit. No one is mentioning that even if the ECB cuts 75 BPS this week, they'll still have a an interest rate / yield advantage over the U.S! I guess they'll sort that all out somewhere down the line, eh?...
  • A Trading Pattern For Gold...

    * The currencies rally back! * The risk takers are back! * Mixed bag of economic reports... * A 'cross thing' for sterling... ** A Trading Pattern For Gold... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! No ice this morning, thank goodness! Winter, in my mind, is bad enough without the slip-sliding away! Snow is one thing, ice is another and it's not high on my Hit Parade! Well, front and center this morning is a rally in the currencies that began yesterday mid-morning, and has carried through the Asian and European markets. I'd tell you why the euro is 2.5 figures above yesterday morning's level, but you'd laugh at me... No wait! That's what you're supposed to do, Chuck, tell the people what's going on! HA! Seriously though... I don't think you'd laugh at me, maybe the dolts that run trading floors around the world, or the pundits that write stories about the markets, but not me!...
  • The Junk Yard Dog Bites!

    * The dollar rallies big time! * A dollar conspiracy? * Bailing out the automakers? * Weathering the storm in N.Z.? ** The Junk Yard Dog Bites! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the Junk Yard Dog got a hold of the euro yesterday, and even though the U.S. Banks, thus the majority of currency desks, were observing Veteran's Day, the move down in currencies VS the dollar, led by the euro, was drastic! The Junk Yard Dog I'm talking about is Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Euro group... I stopped the euro in its tracks from its nascent rise in the past month, by saying the "euro's recent rise was undesirable"... He also deep sixed the euro, and thus all the currencies save yen, by saying he "didn't see any reason there couldn't be more rate cuts by the ECB"... (the ECB is of course the European Central Bank) Well... These two comments tore through any gains the currencies had mounted VS the dollar in recent weeks, like a Junk Yard Dog tears though some raw meat! It was a knife to the euro's heart......
  • Change... What Change?

    * Currency Volatility! * Trading Theme creeps back! * ADP indicates a bad Jobs Jamboree... * Putting on my thinking cap... ** Change... What Change? Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! I say Thunderin' because we're expected to get Thunderstorms and rain today here in the St. Louis area... This will be the first rain we've received in some time, so, while it will bring cooler weather our way, it will still be much needed rain! Well... What a volatile day in the currencies yesterday! WOW! Running up and down the dial, all day long! At one point yesterday morning, the euro looked to be in the driver's seat, ooh, ooh, ooh ooh, driver's seat, yeah... Stop it Chuck, this is supposed to be a serious commentary! Yeah right! Well, at least seriousness is sprinkled in from time to time, eh? Anyway... What I was getting at before slipping off into a song by Sniff-n-The Tears, the euro was moving higher and higher, and was making the 1.29 and 1.30 handles look like picket fences when you pass them going 80 mph!...
  • The Deed Is Done...

    * Adding $700 Billion to our debt... * U.S. loses 159K jobs in September! * Dollar rallies to 13-month high VS euro * Ding Dong the Carry Trade is Dead... ** The Deed Is Done... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The deed is done... The House, which had previously voted down the Bailout Package, decided to go ahead and put the country in debt by another $700 Billion... Yes, I know it the payouts will be in installments, but in my mind it was in one swoop that $700 Billion was added to our debt... And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news! More on the Bailout Package in a minute... The other thing happened on Friday was the awful Job Jamboree in which 159K jobs were reported lost by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during September. The job losses were all over the place led by job losses in Manufacturing. And guess what? The dollar rallied on the news!...
  • Central Bank Meeting Day...

    * Euro fights back... * Germany Factory Orders drop... * BOE & ECB meeting today... * Riksbank raises rates! ** Central Bank Meeting Day... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! A rainy Thursday for us here in St. Louis, as the rains from Gustav reach this area. There's another Hurricane in the Caribbean now... There are two Central Bank meetings going on as I write this morning. The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) both are meeting this morning, and both are expected to leave rates unchanged. More on this in a bit, the Fed's Beige Book, and more this morning, so let's go! Front and Center this morning, the euro spent yesterday on the rally tracks recovering from a 5-month low... When I turned on the screens this morning, the single unit was trading above 1.45 again, on expectations that the ECB would leave rates unchanged. But I've seen a softening in the euro, since arriving, that has come from an unexpected drop in German Factory Orders for the month of July....
  • ECB to change dollar's direction?...

    * ECB to change dollar's direction?... * BOE leaves rates unchanged... * The worst is not over in US housing... * Japan's government signals expansion is over.. ** ECB to change dollar's direction?... Good day...The dollar continued its assault on the world's currencies yesterday as the dollar index moved above the 74 handle. I pulled a chart off the Bloomberg on my way out the door last night, and it showed the only major currency which was up vs. the US$ yesterday was the Swedish krona, which managed a .07% increase. This dollar rally has legs, but I still question the fundamentals behind the dollars surge. Today may be the day we see the dollar finally make a turn, as the ECB will be announcing their rate decision. It is not that I expect Trichet to raise rates, but I do expect him to sound hawkish and refocus the markets attention on Eurozone inflation and away from worries about growth. Two reports out of Germany this morning will bolster Trichet's hawkish stance. German exports rose more than economists expected in June, defying a stronger euro and pushing the trade surplus to a record. Exports increased 4.2% from may, the most since September 2006. German industrial production also increased for the first time in four months with output rising 1.7% from a year earlier. The IMF last month rose its forecast for German economic growth this year and said the global slowdown linked to the US financial crisis was less severe than it expected....